Covid 19 Death Rates in Az

The State of Arizona has a lot of medical data available including deaths and testing by age brackets.

In the age 1 to age 44 brackets the report is about 479,000 were tested and that about 240 in those age brackets.

The deaths number is supposedly accurate while the number tested is only “so far” because they continue to Test.

If you stopped testing today then the death ratio is 240/ 479000 = .0005

Common sense tells us that this ratio will drop as more are tested.

How many deaths from those over age 65? About 75% of all deaths so far.

So it seems to me that older people, especially with existing health issues, will not go to Football games. I am one. I love Football. But I am strictly a TV guy this Fall.

As for the younger people it seems that the odds of dying from Covid 19 are fantastically low. And it seems like a capacity of 20,000 to 25,000 would accommodate those in the younger age brackets.

Here The U. Of Arizona is doing a forehead temp check on all students. Having a fever sends them to a Quarantine Dorm for 2 weeks.

I would think that U of H will also do this, including at our Stadium. Fever = No Admittance.

Az is entering Herd Immunity and Texas seems to be right there as well.

I think the fever check was ruled out for fans going to FB games by UH. I believe the reason was because it is only one possible symptom and not all-inclusive.

Social distancing at the gates will already complicate things so temp checks on top of that feels like a recipe for very long, slow lines.

I am not against the idea - just passing along what I thought I heard or read what UH had in mind.

(I am not going near the other stats or COVID comments - I call it virtual distancing)

Interesting numbers; much different then the Arizona numbers found at worldometer site. It shows 168,273 cases and 3,454 deaths for
mortality rate a little over 2%.

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He was strictly talking from age 1 to 44. And tests given.

Pick a number…what do you want to hear !!

Common sense …Come on man, you are on Coog Fans !! It is in short supply.

Is there something wrong with him pointing out this statistic for where he lives? It’s not like it is pulled out of thin air.

Nothing wrong with it for me ; just commenting on
very different stats being reported. Worldometer only shows total number of tests for Az at 1,125,705.

? Okay. And he clearly stated a number less than 500k tests for his age bracket. Not an all-inclusive number.

479,000 tests for 1-44. The remaining for age groups outside of that bracket.

Okay, thanks.

That’s the total number of tests for that age group. No clue why that’s being used to calculate a death rate.

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Yeah. Not sure. It should be deaths over confirmed cases for that age group. No clue what that is. Would also be interested in the positivity rate of that age group in Arizona.

I don’t really think this stat tell us anything we don’t already know, though. Young people can get the virus and be perfectly fine. It’s about not passing it on to the more vulnerable that becomes the issue. And we can see that being a problem as this thing spreads like wildfire.

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Well, maybe that’s only 240 deaths in that age group and 479,000 positive tests in that age group. That
would make sense. Sorry, I’m not thinking right
tonight.

But assuming the 479,000 is positive cases for an age group, that blows away the total case numbers found at the worldometer site. I like a mystery.

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I wasn’t referring to him :sunglasses:

Death/tested ratio doesn’t tell you much about the odds of dying from the disease. This is flawed data analysis. First off, based on what you posted, we don’t know if one person getting tested multiple times counts as several tests in their database. My guess is it does. Second, the vast majority of those tests were probably negative. While there are false negative tests, you aren’t going to die from a disease you don’t have.

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Arizona will need around 4.3 million Covid survivors to be at herd immunity.

Texas will need about 17.4 million survivors to be at herd immunity.

And that’s assuming one gains immunity after contracting it, and that the virus doesn’t mutate enough to overcome antibodies your body created based on a previous strain.

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The simple fact is fewer and fewer people are being hospitalized and even fewer need an I C U.

Houston has more people than does Pima County, Az yet has fewer deaths. This is reflective of heavy retirees here vs. a younger population.

I again say if one is older and/or has medical issues do not go to games. Err on the side of caution.

Everyone else has a very low chance of dying even if you catch Sars2 at a game.One of my daughters and her husband both have had it. Both are in their 40’s. No Hospital no nothing. Fully recovered staying at home. 2 teenagers in their house. Neither one got it.

Our students would have a very low vulnerability to Sars2. All data shows that.

Chef’s kiss to this line being in this post

Just checked the daily Az Health Dept stats.

Deaths of those younger than age 65 is 1012.

Population of those younger than 65 is estimated at 5.3 Million.

You can do the Math.

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