Covid-19 stats, projections, trends, graphs

I didn’t want to make another thread, but I would like to have one that is just dedicated to following the stats without all the other things which turn political and get shut down. It’s important for people to get the real data of how things are going and where hot spots are. Feel free to share anything related to that. Below are a few good links to follow. Worldometers is nice because it is the quickest updates grabbing data directly from counties, but it can be off a little every now and then. Johns Hopkins is one of the best with only a slight lag. The Texas DSHS is best for in depth Texas numbers.

New cases are up some, deaths still at the highest point, hospitalizations down some.

I saw over the last three days our numbers are going up. Very dissappointing! Not sure what has changed out there but I was waiting for people to relax again after 2 to 2.5 weeks of improvement.

May be it’s my Texas pride but why are we taking so much heat. California, Texas and Florida’s death totals are not even close to New York’s 32,801. New Jersey is higher than Texas and Florida combined. Even if you look at the numbers as a percentage of population New York and New Jersey are two of the worst areas in the world.

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Multiple reasons. First they got hit much earlier when the country wasn’t prepared but got things under control. Texas went the other way. Supplies were lacking, hospitals weren’t ready, and treatments were not as good anywhere in the US in March as it is now. We are saving more lives now.

Another piece is they had their spike during flu season while the south has not had to deal with cold weather and more sick people during the summer. Viruses normally don’t spread well in summers so it does look really bad.

Also NYC is a different beast, there is not even close to a comparison in Texas to that many people living on top of each other and using public transportation every day. Take out NYC numbers and we are similar, more deaths than just upstate NY. We have built in advantages over the NE because of the population density and much smaller public transportation usage.

Another piece to point out is that NY and NJ counted probable Covid-19 deaths while Texas does not and even got stricter with counting where it can only be Covid if listed as the primary reason for death on the death certificate. You can almost double our numbers if we count deaths like NY/NJ does.


I cant get the statewide numbers to load on my phone, but did see the Houston area positive rate going back up. That hurricane/tropical storm probably didn’t help the RGV area, maybe sports being back has led to gatherings at sports bars and homes, or same issue with people just not caring.

Deaths per day has dropped but infections and infection rates have gone up over the last 4 days or so.

Agree. And, trends matter too. NY and NJ have it under control. The other 3 states not so much. The numbers will get worse.

Texas, Florida, and California are very likely to pass NJ. The IHME model has Texas approaching 25K by November and the other states 20K. And, as you mentioned, those 3 states have inherent advantages and should have never been close to NJ or NY.

Just a heads up if you didn’t see the announcement from them last week, their deaths graph places the death on the date listed on the death certificate now instead of the date it is reported. They said there is an average of a 9 day delay between the two. So it looks like deaths are going down, but they really haven’t shown any decline yet. They have slowed their growth a little of the last week so I assume we are near our ceiling for when we had 9-10k new cases a day.

Worldometers has been struggling to get numbers right for Texas after the change in how deaths are tracked. I believe some deaths listed as Covid by counties are being denied by the state since Covid wasn’t the primary cause on the death certificate. The weird thing is the DSHS said 230 deaths a day for the 7 day average and Worldometers has only 228 even though they have an extra 400 deaths total.

That ties into the issues because hospitals needed space for new patients because of how many people were infected so recovering patients were sent home (which for some happened to be nursing homes). I don’t want to get into all the details as it will possibly turn political, but the state didn’t send anybody back to nursing homes. It happened because of an order put in place to make sure nursing homes didn’t refuse to take care of or take in elderly if they got Covid. Hospitals sent them back to nursing homes. Texas and other states got the chance to learn from those situations, no state would have been prepared for that number of widespread cases.

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We go to all the trouble of getting a vaccine and now we find out it won’t work if you are fat.

Shouldn’t have made McDonalds an essential business. So what do we do now that the vaccine isn’t going to work?

Interesting article and has citations back to 1985 stating vaccines not as effective on obese. I’m guessing it will take awhile before folks modify
behaviors. Like with smoking. And even today I recall seeing a stat there are still about 32 million smokers in this country !

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It’s a societal/cultural problem in the US. We live in a world of excess, convenience, and an abundance of opportunity. It’s a world where things just tend to come easily, so a lot of people have lost sight of the fact that things like health require sacrifice and work. And yes I get that people are busy, but if the mindset making little sacrifices for the sake of your health is ingrained in you, then waking up an hour earlier to get a workout in doesn’t sound so crazy. Neither does making smarter decisions when you eat out, or sacrificing some leisure time prepare healthier alternatives at home. But we tend to put our health as a secondary priority to eating and doing whatever we want.

Basically the same mindsets about not wanting to make sacrifices to protect out own health, apply at a macro level with regards to COVID.

We deal with COVID the way most people jump on keto, or whatever trendy excercise fad is happening for two months as their wastelines surge…then go back to old habits once things are 'pretty ok for now"

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I am thinking that this new bit of information will now wake people up. If you are overweight you have a good chance of getting really sick or even dying. Telling people the truth that a vaccine isn’t going to work on you because you are overweight is what we need to be screaming. We have two parallel pandemics and the obesity pandemic is providing fuel for the Covid pandemic. Now with this bit of information coupled with 48% of our adult population being obese, we are in trouble.

I am almost of a mind that we should be mandating an annual physical and if your BMI is above the obesity line we should be taxing these people.

Japan and other counties have a fat tax. But can you imagine how people would lose their minds if we did that here?

I am sure they would be unhappy. However we did things to buy us time to get a vaccine and now, it will be ineffective on 48% of the adults.

Well the vaccines are not as effective and protection
is lost sooner then non-obese folks. Does not mean it does not work. At least that was a take away from the article I got. I may need to reread it. Maybe the obese will just need a yearly or biannual booster ? And that’s not to say obesity is not a problem; it needs to be addressed too.

So tax the fat to feed the poor until there are no fat anymore :wink:

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Yeah not disagreeing with you. I just remember how nuts some people went about masks and can only imagine how some would react to being hit with a fat tax.

If the goal of a vaccine is herd immunity, and the vaccine is ineffective for a large portion, then we still have the problem of asymptomatic carriers passing it around.

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