Espn/fox decline early big12 tv negociations

[Person]

When one looks at the financial picture of the PAC 12 and understands the issues their members are facing there is zero chance they take that gamble. The PAC 12 has enough teams as it is that are using unsustainable academic side subsidies while many of them also run unsustainable annual deficits even with those subsidies. There is no way they are going to add more of that and more of that only makes things worse for them.

Taking a half share of current TV money $10 million provided the media partners were even willing to cover that much less give a full TV share for a new member would net the PAC 12 about $1 million more per team if a full share of TV money was paid by the media partners and UH only took half.

The results of that would be UH with a $80 million dollar athletics budget which would only be above WSU and slightly below Oregon State while doing that with $48 million in academic side subsidies which is well over 2X what any other PAC 12 school has.

And no conference is going to buy into the “let us in and our fans and donors will show up you just wait and see.” That is hardly a selling point nor is the willingness to run a massive academic side subsidy while still having the 2nd to 5th lowest P5 athletics budget there is depending on what some of the ACC private schools have going.

Five or ten years is nothing in the life of a conference and letting in a member that will be down at the lowest levels of budgets and running the highest of academic subsidies and then “hope” is not what any conference is looking for especially when their current members want desperately to lower their academic side subsidies and stop their annual deficits even after those subsidies.

[TOP25]

We can more than compete with a lower budget bc of where we are located. There’s no risk for them if we take much less than the other members for 5 or 10 yrs or more. Again we’re already subsidizing athletics at a high rate so any bump in money will help. We can do more with less like we have been. We could compete right now with our current budget bc of Tillman.Smiss used to beat us with half or less our budget so we don’t need to go higher initially.
A&M lost 43 mil in covet then the sec kicked in 23 to all members to help out. A&M cut a lot of waste this yr to reduce the strain which tells us, they have a lot of fat in the budget. They spend. Lot bc it’s there but it’s not needed to compete. Tillman will work a deal when the time arises bc he sees us subsidizing our athletics each yr so even a slight bump in pay and we’re good to go which is what he will do. Aldine mentioned we’re willing to pay to get in which backs up this post.

[Person]

There is a huge risk to them and 5 or 10 years is nothing in terms of the life of a conference. There is zero guarantee to the PAC 12 that the administration of UH, The State Legislature of Texas, or the students of UH will allow $48 million per year in academic side subsidies to continue indefinitely.

ALL the risk is to the PAC 12 because if it turns out that UH cannot sustain that subsidy, they cannot get massive new donor support, and they cannot get much larger crowds with much higher ticket prices well the PAC 12 is still stuck with that new member that eventually will want a full share of revenues. And what conference wants to take a member that says “we will compete with a really low budget because” when that conference is looking at a large % of their members that are not competing well and that have low budgets and high subsidies and some with annual deficits to boot.

All the more so when programs in large metro areas in that conference that are talent rich are having trouble competing with larger budgets. And the program wanting to join and “compete” has a $17 million to $20 million dollar larger subsidy and a $5 to $20 million dollar larger budget than members in their current conference where they are only just “competing” and not dominating.

[TOP25]

Our subsidy goes down once we’re in vs being where we are.

[Ron1102 (Big 12 MBB Champs)]

I think only about 10 or 15 P5s are not subsidized by the school.

[Person]

How exactly does that work? In the 2018-19 fiscal year which is the year with the latest equally comparable numbers available UH had $75,049,955 in athletics revenue. $48,372,196 of that was from academic side subsidies. If you subtract $5 million of that because of no longer getting money from the AAC and then you add in a little less than half a share of TV money from the PAC 12 so $10 million then you get revenues of $80,049,955. That is ignoring the $17 million to leave the AAC which is what UConn just paid or are we pretending that UH will get to leave for free? That $17 million spread over 10 years is a cost of $1.7 million per year.

In the same fiscal year WSU had revenues of $71,691,339 with a subsidy of $5,462,015, but their expenses were also about $4.5 million over those revenues so for another in a line of several years they had a deficit even with that subsidy. Oregon State was $82,058,386 in revenue with a subsidy of $11,811,725 and they also spent $300,000 more than revenues so they had a slight deficit.

But their revenues are still about $2 million more with a subsidy of $37 million less than UH and ignoring the $1.7 million per year over 10 years cost of leaving the AAC. So where exactly and how much exactly is UH going to cut from that $48 million in subsidies and how much lower will their revenues be then?

And to Ron right now excluding private schools that are not in the USA Today numbers Rutgers has the highest P5 subsidy of $29,859,395. The next highest is Maryland $25,363,715 after that it is Arizona $21,886,167 then ASU $19,356,134 then Virginia $18,429,801.

So I don’t think any P5 conference is looking to add a member that has $20 million higher than the highest P5 currently has all the more so when that comes with one of the lowest P5 budgets even if that subsidy is maintained.

And any meaningful cut to that $48 million just makes that budget lower and lower and gets it towards the lowest in the P5 at WSU levels or worse.

[Gadfly]

@TOP25

Aldine mentioned we’re willing to pay to get in which backs up this post.

Beware the Oracle of Aldine.

[TOP25]

I believe in Aldine bc he has been consistent despite the negativity and I believe he has spoken to Pez etc like he mentioned. Again , the p5s only care about what they have to pay new members, they don’t care where the rest comes from and we will make a good deal pitch to them like Aldine mentioned. There is only upside on our financial numbers if we’re in a p5 and any bump is better than where we’re at now. Comparing us to Utah? We have the market over them so if they let them in then we’re good. Utah might only sell more tickets but we’d catch up fast in the pac. Enrollment and donors would increase overnight if we’re in the pac. It’s why all G5’s want a p5 invite. UH has Tillman etc so I trust them to work a deal.

[Gadfly]

@TOP25

Comparing us to Utah? We have the market over them so if they let them in then we’re good. Utah might only sell more tickets but we’d catch up fast in the pac.

Utah is 500 miles closer to the rest of the PAC 12 members. Utah is a state flagship university (much like Colorado). UH doesn’t fit that profile.

If I’m being completely honest, UH is the third or fourth most popular football program in the Houston area.

[TOP25]

Utah has a pop of 3.3 sharing with Byu. We have a pop of 7 mil even sharing we’re on par with numbers. The 3rd or 4th team in the pecking order with a state pop of close to 30 mil is more than equal. It’s why the SWC existed for decades bc Texas is a huge state. Utah being a flagship only means they might capture most or half the 3 mil. It’s the numbers that count and there are 7 mil here and we could capture half that if in the pac which is what matters to them.

[Gadfly]

@TOP25

The 3rd or 4th team in the pecking order with a state pop of close to 30 mil is more than equal.

I said third or fourth team in the Houston area. If you’re talking the entire state, I’d put UH 5th or 6th in the pecking order.

And since you didn’t address my point about the geography, I’ll just say that distance from the rest of the league matters, especially when you’re budgeting travel expenses for the non-revenue sports.

[UHCoog]

Who is your most popular/ favorite team in the Houston area?

[OldtimeCoog]

@Gadfly

I said third or fourth team in the Houston area.

name them

[TOP25]

It doesn’t matter if Utah is closer bc they want in Texas. The most popular team in Houston when we’re good is Houston. When we made the final 4 this yr, we were the rage and most popular in Houston. Even if we weren’t killing it, if in a major conf. Now we’d capture most of the Houston attn here. We’d be good most often in the pac bc we’ve grown as a school with dorms , facilities etc. we’d also get better tv and chronicle coverage. We’d be like A&M or close. Houston, even if 4th or 5th in the state doesn’t account for how much the city loves us when doing well and we have a state pop right here in our backyard which in many ways is better than being a flagship in a state with 2 or 3 mil.

[UH1927]

That’s just not true…the Final Four run and the Peach Bowl run proved UH is the undeniable most popular program IN Houston when we are Big Time

Newscasts led with the Coogs, downtown skyscrapers had UH in lights, offices around Houston had UH parties despite having ZERO UH connections…even for the last NCAA runs oh and the Mayor declared UH Coog day. Even non Coogs wore Cougar Red or threw up a Cougar paw.

TT made it to the last NCAA final…zero buzz around the city.

Baylor won the championship…almost zero buzz around the city.

Texas A&M was knocking on the playoff door…zero buzz EXCEPT for Aggie alums.

LSU won the National Chamouonship in football …life went on the next day.

UT couldn’t even get a decent crowd for the UCLA vs UT game of the century type redo in Reliant…the city of Houston could care less.

We need to stop downgrading ourselves …when UH is on the biggest stage …this IS a University of Houston city first and foremost…and by a country mile.

A P5 invite will put us on that big stage way more often.

[TOP25]

Ask A&M or UT if they don’t mind us being in a p5 then all your questions are answered. They want to keep us out bc they know what would happen. The big 12 denied us for those reasons and Barry Switzer said it would be a mistake bc of what we could become so there’s your answer. UH is a valuable commodity and you can’t compare what we’re doing in the AAC in football only now bc they use the trump card of lesser conf against us. The reason they can all wait is bc they know we’re stuck but soon as the pac invites us if it happens then the big 12 will invite us then I hope we choose right this time.

[Uhsigep96 (Ian Blake)]

If y’all seriously think there are more casual Coog fans than casual horn and aggies in this city you need to adjust those rose glasses.

[Person]

The idea of a single TV market making massive new money for a conference is just not at all realistic all the more so in an era when pay TV subscriptions are declining faster and faster. There are only 4.5 million pay TV subscribers in all of Texas and with the PAC12n earning on average $.11 per subscriber per month. It will take a lot more than that to add any real value and that is pretending 100% of those subscribers will suddenly be forced to pay for the PAC 12 network which is highly unlikely. All the more so considering their entire subscriber base now is 15 million.

Conferences and especially the PAC 12 are not going to ignore reality for “hope” especially when the best that “hope” offers is being down at the very bottom in budgets in a conference that already has more than enough of that issue.

Here are the numbers from 2018-19 giving all the benefit to the members of the AAC overall others. The numbers subtract 100% of the subsidies for the P5 members and it takes $4 million out for current conference distributions which is probably a bit low for the AAC and a bit high for the MWC. It then adds in $32 million for a full share of the PAC 12 revenue which is probably $2 million or more high for that fiscal year and then it adds in a $22 million academic side subsidy for the AAC and MWC members which is higher than any PAC 12 member currently has. But again that is taking out 100% of all subsidies for the Big 12, ACC and PAC 12 members. And it ignores any cost to leave a current conference.

Even with all those benefits given to AAC schools over the others, the unrealistic full share that is higher than the share in that year for the PAC 12 and the extremely high academic side subsidy added back in the numbers still look terrible.

the PAC 12 with 6 of the 9 lowest subsidized budgets and 5 of the 6 lowest would be getting more of the same with UH. Colorado State, Fresno, Nevada and UNLV would have better budgets and that is leaving out Boise.

The PAC 12 simply cannot afford to add more of that. It does nothing for them and it is not going to mean any new major source of meaningful dollars for them it will just mean they now have more programs with the lowest P5 budgets out there and some of the highest subsidies and that is not a benefit to the conference as a whole.

[Gadfly]

1. Texas
2. A&M
3. LSU

[Gadfly]

Popular or favorite? Popular being the Texans. Favorite being the Coogs.