ESPN FPI - Houston 60th

Predict us to go 7-5, finish 3rd in the American - Memphis predicted to get the G5 slot.

ESPN Football Power Index - 2017
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Haha 7-5?

Their predictions have UH losing:

@ Arizona
Texas Tech
@ Tulsa
Memphis
@ South Florida

With a new head coach, a new QB, new DC, etc., I can see those as tough road games and a couple of challenging home games. I like the over for wins at 7.4, Tulsa can sling it around so I see that as the toughest road game even though ESPN gives UH less of a chance at South Florida and at Arizona. (Assuming I read their numbers correctly)

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We need for CMA to be successful his first year. Would give him validation when it comes to recruiting. I hate to do predictions because I don’t like to put a limit on potential.

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Yessir. Some folks are so concerned about 2018 recruits not committing to Houston early but it all stands on CMA success with the squad.

The ESPN FPI has always been a crock of crap - too much credit given to P5 teams. This paragraph below highlights the bias:

ā€œIn the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from past seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proven to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.ā€

Here are the flaws in the logic creating the bias:

  1. Data from past seasons give too much SoS to teams that play more P5 teams.
  2. G5 schools are less likely to have tenured coaches because ours get poached all the time. Schools with talent like Houston tend to ā€œre-loadā€ on coaching talent pretty easily.
  3. Recruiting rankings are inherently biased towards the blue bloods. Even then the impact of true freshman, save the occasional Ed Oliver-like freak, is pretty minimal.

I’d love to find a spot to bet that we win the conference with 10/1 odds plus.

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I don’t think 7-5 and a 3rd place finish is a horrible prediction from anyone that is not biased. The ones most upset about the prediction probably don’t even know the coaching changes, returning starters and other miscellaneous stuff of the other teams to make an unbiased opinion of their own.

I’d venture to say that 95% of the time a fan just takes a guess based on how their team did last year and if they think the team will be better or worse this year. The other 7.5% of the time it is probably bad math. :wink:

Well, we barely beat Tulsa at home last year.

Why is Memphis expected to be so good?

preĀ·dicĀ·tionhttp://www.coogfans.com/t/espn-fpi-houston-60th/6421
prÉ™ĖˆdikSH(ə)n/
noun
a thing predicted; a forecast.
"a prediction that the Greeks would destroy the Persian empire"
synonyms: forecast, prophecy, prognosis, prognostication, augury; More
the action of predicting something.
ā€œthe prediction of future behaviorā€

That’s all this is.
Right now we are 0-0. Our goal is to go 1-0 every week. A season is like reading a book. It has many chapters.

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I think the 1-0 and HtownTakeover should move on with Herman. Applewhite needs to put his own stamp on his team.

I think you risk losing the fan base if you move away from htowntakeover. I think most houston fans associate that with the school and not the coach.

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1-0 DID NOT START WITH judaerman. The impostor did not invent it. Every Coach has to take this approach. That is the only way to be successful.

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Yeah, our high-school coaches were telling us to be ā€œ1-0 this weekā€ and that was back in 2002-2004. Lol