I am writing that if the opportunity comes to get fsu, Clemson, nc, miami/gt we have to make it our priority #1 and get them.
I just donât see how any of those schools get SEC invites
Iâm not saying they arenât worthy, but when you factor everything it just doesnât make any sense logistically
UNC/UVA? yes.
Everyone else? No.
Except that the networks donât care much about the G6. Thatâs why their media deals are so small: because they generate so little ad revenue. As such, thatâs all that they are worth. The networks donât make much off those broadcasts, and as such, canât afford to pay those schools much. Those matchups generally are duds, and are paid accordingly: because they donât generate a lot of interest and revenues.
Big 12 and ACC matchups, by contrast, arenât duds.
Thatâs why they are paid so much more. Because they legitimately generate that much more interest and ad revenue. As such, the networks can afford to pay them more, because ultimately, they make more off them.
But DEMOTE them by making them no longer top level, as you envision, and they become worthless. Of no more value than the G6. Thatâs how great the loss of interest and AD REVENUE to the networks will be.
The networks can broadcast them, but the interest level in them will drop to the point where they generate little value. Ultimately, they too will get paid a far lesser amount, because that is all that they will be worth, and all the networks can afford, given how much less they will be making off them.
Thatâs why such a breakaway move isnât likely. The networks would prefer to broadcasts DOZENS of high interest, high ad revenue games per week.
With 70ish top level teams, they can do exactly that. Provide DOZENS of high revenue broadcasts.
With 34-48, by contrast, they are stuck broadcasting a lot more G6 level games, with correspondingly low ratings and lack of ad revenue.
Smart odds say that the networks DO NOT want to lose that revenue by demoting those teams and making them less valuable. Youâre talking about the difference between dozens of money making broadcasts, and dozens LESS.
Given that, donât put money on it.
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The caveat here, Law, is that there isnât a single network that wants to partner with the Big 12 as a lone network
Doesnât matter. Neither network wants to ditch them either.
And thereâs a reason for that: because they have VALUE.
Demote a bunch of them though, and they no longer will.
Thatâs fewer high value broadcasts per weekend, and less money.
No network wants that.
On a side note, getting TNT money as well would boost the Big 12. Getting it wouldnât be a possibility if the Big 12 were a dud.
Demote it via a P2 breakaway thoughâŠâŠand it will become a low interest dud to TNT, and everybody else.
But I suspect the networks want more high value matchups than dud matchups, and that weighs against a P2 breakaway.
Consider this. The total number of power conference teams has not changed much since the CFA was created.
A few teams have moved up (BYU and UCF), others down (Wazzu, OSU, Temple, Rice, USF), and others down then up again (UH, Cincy, TCU, SMU).
But the overall number has remained almost steady.
Why?
Because thatâs the optimum amount for the networks to get the greatest possible number of high value broadcasts per week.
This thread now has 5186 responses.
Why?
How is this topic infinitely fascinating?
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When is realignment not fascinating
Geez, man.
Nobody said the networks would âditch themâ.
Theyâll just pay less to secure their rights to broadcast them
I didnât say they would ditch them.
I said theyâd make less money off them, because interest in those teams will dwindle once they are demoted.
They want to make MORE, which is why I donât see a breakaway happening.
The networks can make more money by keeping 70ish teams at the highest level, and maintaining interest in them.
Demote 20 or more of them, and you have fewer high interest, high ad revenue games per week.
The networks certainly donât want that.
Thatâs the reason the total number of power conference teams has largely remained steady since the days of the CFA: because thatâs roughly the number needed to get the optimal number of high interest matchups each week.
34-48 teams is far fewer than optimal. Fewer high interest matchups. Less money.
Make less money?
They we would pay them way less as 25% of the P4 is overvalued.
Nobody and i mean NOBODY jumped in to save Oregon State and Washington State because everybody knew they had a G6 valuation
Follow The Money!
Overvalued? Says who?
Obviously not the market.
The market says that SMU and Stanford are basically worthless, for example; thatâs why the market is paying them either nothing or very little for their brands.
UHâŠwill be getting paid BIG BUCKS this year.
Is UH one of the âovervaluedâ ones?
Careful now.
Our attendance is only slightly better than Stanfordâs in football.
Hey listen, interest in anyone except the breakaways WILL diminish post-breakaway, as well as TV ratings, advertising value, etc. Thatâs what happens when a team gets relegated to the minor leagues. It becomes a less watched âinferiorâ good. Revenues to the networks for those teams WILL drop, just as they are already low for G6 teams playing on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
The networks want MORE high value matchups, NOT fewer. Thatâs how they make the big bucks.
Thatâs whyâŠsince the CFA was foundedâŠthe total number of âpowerâ conference teams has varied little.
Youâll always need 70ish for an optimal number of high value matchups.
Thatâs the biggest factor weighing against any breakaway P2. Well, that, and the fact that the P2 donât really get along together that well anyway; just look at the fracture over the playoff format.
And stop talking about it or you WILL jinx us. UH is definitely NOT a Top 48 football brand (just look at our attendance and viewership; itâs near the BOTTOM of the P4). We WILL be left out; certainly at 34 and probably at 48.
DONâT wish for such a thing; the more you talk about it, the MORE you jinx us.
Yes, YOU keep saying the ACC has a bunch of dead weight and they will not get a big renewal deal.
YOU think the football programs of Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, etc. are worth $50-60 million???
NO!
They can downgrade them, a la Oregon State and Washington State, and only pay them $10 million.
The 48 school P2 has 14 open spots.
The 60 school P3 (including the current Big 12) has 10 open spots.
The rest can be HUGE cost savers for the networks
Correspondingly, interest in them will DROP following demotion to the point where the networks arenât making any more on them than a G6.
Their games will become low revenue matchups.
The networks donât want that.
As I said, they want a maximum number of high value matchups each week.
That requires 70ish members; thatâs why the number of power conference teams hasnât really changed since the creation of the CFA.
sureâŠthatâs EXACTLY what happened to Oregon State and Washington State.
Look at what they are making now!
There is precedent, Mr. Lawyer
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There is no doubt about it. We have now four power conferences. Some might argue we only have two. Again, I canât wait for what TNTâs real intentions are. Maybe just maybe another major media player will invite themselves in the âdragonâs denâ
espn has been acting like Don Corleone for far too long. It is way over due for others to get a piece of the pizza pie.
And thatâs my point. They have now been DEVALUED by demotion.
The PAC Light is basically relegated to CBS Sports now:
Interest in those two teams is dropping and recruits are hemorrhaging.
The biggest networks wonât take them because they arenât worth any money, and they wonât get paid Jack if they broadcast them.
I REST MY CASE!!!
CASE CLOSED!!!
Matchups involving those teams are no longer âhigh valueâ matchups.
To make up for that, they moved up two more valuable brands that provide higher value matchups to the power ranks: BYU and UCF.
The total number of power conference teams remains almost the same as it has since the CFA was established for a reason: only THAT number, or something closely thereabouts, ensures the greatest possible number of high value matchups per week.
Drop the power teams to 48, and there are far fewer high value matchups making the networks less money.
It is what it is.
And thatâs why it is UNlikely to happen.
Anyway, I think you are probably the only guy here that doesnât âgetâ that, and that speaks volumes.
Wake me up when the P2 can even so much as agree on a playoff format and Iâll consider a P2 breakaway a little more probable, though still improbable for the reasons I mentioned.
Meanwhile, you can explain to me how a football program with worse attendance and viewership than UH like Stanford and whose brand only gets paid a fraction of what UHâs does is somehow a âbigâ football brand.
Hint: you canât. Thatâs illogical and stupid.
Your case is closed?
Im the one saying the networks can partition the best 48/50 brandsâŠor 60 in the true P3 format and "discount " the rest.
Then they can focus on monster ratings for that upper tier similar to the only 32 teams in the NFLâŠso 48 would be 12 MORE than the NFL
Your argument proves my point âŠOregon State vs Boston College was NEVER going to attract the casual fan to watchâŠthe networks were overpaying them
No, youâre saying that there will be a 48 team P2 breakaway, which will automatically relegate the rest to a lower level, and make them low value.
If you are saying that there will be 70ish teams in THREE power conferences, then youâll be getting somewhere.
That gives the networks enough high value matchups to fill all the slots.
NOT an arrangement with only 34-48 high value teams.
Remember, since the CFA, just under 70 power teams has been what it takes to create enough high value matchups.
Donât look for that to change.
Not low valueâŠEqual value.
Even in this current setup how many people are going to tune in to watch Fresno State vs a Wake Forest?
Very few.
Creating an upper tier ONLY âŠcreates NFL like matchups every single time!
Which equal monster ratings, increased advertising and paying the lower tier brands what they are avtually worth and NOT 40 or 50 or 60 million
And thatâs a) why Fresno State isnât in a power conference, AND b) why the ACC is likely the next power conference to lose teams and value.
Thatâs why I can see a situation where there are only three power conferences comprising 60-70ish teams. Thatâs a real possibility. It provides enough high value matchupsâŠ.without having to keep the Wake Forests of this world.
But NOT only two with 34-48.
Not enough high value matchups.
College football isnât the NFL.