Get ready for the Big 12 announcement next week

Why do we think it will be October? I know they have meetings then, but there were a ton of articles in August saying it may take until December to decide. An example, see this article from the FW Star Telegram.

If it all falls apart, I hope our conference makes a move on the MWC. Adding Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force and BYU would make us a legitimate power conference in football. The issue before was not getting an invite for all sports. Well in all of the other sports, they play tournaments. Which means you can have four divisions in which division winners get top seeds. A special consideration would allow for Navy and Air Force to play every year as a conference game but non divisional.

There may not be a decision in October, but it will be next to impossible to keep the results of those October talks quiet. As far as I know, the presidents are not subject to any kind of NDA like the applicant schools are. And as @jollyroger keeps saying, if someone needs to start moving public opinion, you can bet there will be leaks.

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Boise State has a sweet deal with ESPN. They make double what everyone else makes in the MWC.

It is going to take the AAC getting a sizeable bonus for BSU to move to another G5 conference.

Question is would ESPN give that new AAC a raise, and if so how much.

Has anyone heard anything from Aresco to suggest the AAC plans to do something if Big 12 expansion doesnā€™t happen? Obviously he has talked about doing something if the Big 12 plunders the AAC, but what if it doesnā€™t? I would hope heā€™s continually working on making the conference better, but I just havenā€™t heard anything along those lines.

Iā€™ve read a number of comments that Aresco is exploring ways to ā€œupgradeā€ the conference. There is a gap between the AAC and other G5 conferences. That gap needs to be exploited.

If we can elevate the AAC we might - I say ā€œmightā€ - be able to renegotiate our TV/media contract. Anything to raise the cash flow to allow us to be in a stronger financial position to keep from having our coaches poached. Having a stronger product would help the media sell our games, ergo more money for everyone.

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Well it looks like the Big12 just got paid to stay as is until they implode.

http://www.si.com/college-football/2016/10/14/big-12-expansion-unlikely

Why would the networks pay more for a conference that isnā€™t bringing in the viewers it once did?

Look at the Red River Showdown ratings, lowest in 16 years; and thatā€™s with the 2 stars of the Big12. Compare that to the ratings of this yearā€™s Advocare Kickoff.

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No expansion means death walk for big12.

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which is why Texas likely to do somethingā€¦and i am not talking about 8 years from now, eitherā€¦the league no longer remains a viable entity to show their brandā€¦perhaps all that has something to do with our future will actually beā€¦

Multiple sources suggested that things could change once the presidents get together. This is the Big 12, where the unexpected and bizarre have become normal. Sources urged caution with definitive declarations about a league that can never seem to make up its own mind.

Soā€¦thereā€™s nothing in Thamelā€™s article saying the networks are actually offering this deal, just that the schools are hoping they do and talking to them about it. Also says itā€™s speculation and then thereā€™s the quote up aboveā€¦so basically, nobody knows anything.

All the schools who applied for membership in the Big 12 are supplicants. We canā€™t force their hand. They can delay without worrying about anything but a few column inches about the conference being dysfunctional. No pressure on them to expand. None. They kick this down the road with some statement about after due consideration the best course is to stand pat at the present. That seems like the thing they will find the easiest upon which to agree.

Remember, it isnā€™t like we have any other suitors at present. If they decide in five years to ask us in, weā€™ll still be waiting. Just a matter of geography working against us.

Couldnā€™t the networks pay the existing Big XII teams a little more IF the Big XII agrees not to expand and thus save some of the $ they would have been contractually bound to pay to the conference had it expanded?

how would you know WHAT we have, in the way of other suitors?? Presidents dont say what RK did to boosters at the tailgate without having SOMETHING in their pocketā€¦Do you SERIOUSLY think other conferences are going to go public with their intentions?? Not every league is as idiotic as the Big 12ā€¦

Stop making perfectly logic counterpoints to my point!! :slight_smile:

Yes, BUTā€¦ESPN is paying the Big 12 for viewers the league does not deliver. You cannot lose teams like Nebraska and A&M and replace them with teams like WVA and TCU. Kudos to TCU for what they have accomplished, BUT UH (according to the B12ā€™s own survey) has a larger state-wide following than TCU and Tech COMBINED.

Moreover the SEC has pretty much pushed the Big 12 out of the No. 8 media market in the nation. ESPN is still paying the Big 12 as though it is delivering the Houston/SE Texas market. I cannot believe they will allow this to continue. Maybe in all the insanity they will. But in the real world the ONLY way the Big 12 can regain this lost market is to have UH onboard.

David Barron did a nice job in todayā€™s (Sunday) Chron laying out the history of the Big 12. But he didnā€™t go into this part of the story, which bears heavily on the future of the conference.

One way or the other, the announcement is today at Big 12 press conference. BYU and Cincinnati will apparently have reporters there.

Prediction time:

I say expansion.

UH gets in with Texas pushing expansion. BYU #2.

30% chance of going bold, Cincy and UCF

I do think that we are in but all of the ā€œleaksā€ must have been generated by the ā€œBYU/lbgtā€ side show. The lbgt must have put pressure in the last few months. The small12 is on media/pr ā€œthin iceā€ since the baylor scandal. It would/will make perfect sense to have UH and BYU as new members. Both bring a major improvement to the small12. OU must have put forward Cinci to ā€œreplaceā€ BYU with uta against it. Hence all the leaks. Folks I am just speculating.

It would explain a lot of things.

It seems all the leaks came from only two sources: BYU (the Montemayor contingent) and OU (too vast to list; esp. Flugar or however you spell it)