Greg Swaim: "It's not going to be Houston"

Flugaur! AAAAWWW! Why’d you go and mention that? We’re in the Promised Land. No more of that BS.

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UT and Tech can’t block anything by themselves. It takes three schools to block a “candidate.”

Pawrful’s premise is that Baylor will do what it takes to remain in UT’s good graces and, ultimately, to remain in the B12. Consequently, his theory goes, Baylor is UT’s “third vote”.

I wonder if baylor is a seesaw vote right now. They obviously aren’t getting kicked out (much to the dismay of the general populace), but perhaps non-texas schools are courting them whispering in their ear that they will tacetly support BU through hard times in exchange for their vote.
If I were a Kansan or Iowan or West Virginian looking for leverage that is the first school I would target for a vote, knowing they are weak.

I’ve heard from more than one source that Baylor is aligned with UT and Tech on UH. I’ve different stories about TCU, that they support us and that they don’t. They do seem very opposed to BYU, so my hunch is they’re with the other Texas schools. Also have heard WVU is good with UH as long as Cincy is in. Makes some sense as they surely wouldn’t want BYU. Supposedly the resistance is from the Kansas schools and possibly Iowa State. But I would hope a deal would be cut given the money on the table and the desire of those three programs to keep the Big 12 intact as long as possible. Not like the SEC or Big 10 are salivating over the prospect of KSU or ISU.

Our resistance could well be coming from the Kansas schools and OSU and ISU.

If there ever was a sales pitch the horns will have to turn into an Elmer Gantry and sell the case that visiting UH and the city and SE Texas on a regular basis and recruiting-wise would be more profitable than those barren western mt states … Utah and surrounding Montana and Idaho and Wyoming where there are more wild life than humans … :slight_smile:

If the governor’s threats of “no expansion without UH” are true, then both TCU/Baylor will fall in line. Even though they are private, there are still ways to impact those schools via the Texas government.

Baylor is an easy one as many have asked for the Texas AG to get involved and investigate their FOIA requests that they are balking at releasing. My guess, especially with the way Baylor has been so secretive so far, the last thing they want is anything to get out. All the governor has to do is apply a little pressure and the Bears will fall in line.

TCU is a little harder, but they owe their entry into the Big 12 to UT. Even though Dodds is gone, I doubt TCU wishes to anger the Longhorns or the “chief” Longhorn (Abbott) as they probably wouldn’t be able to find a home if UT were to leave the Big 12 behind. They’ll fall in line.

But, this is all in response to Swaim’s quotes on BYU radio. Just realize that 2 days ago he tweeted out this:

https://twitter.com/GSwaim/status/767846689101139968

That doesn’t sound like someone who has solid sources about what’s going on. Sounds like his sources are other media guys; we’ve all seen that the media really doesn’t know what’s going on with the Big12 presidents.

The FOIA only applies to the federal government and its agencies. As a private entity, Baylor cannot be compelled to produce information under the FOIA or under Texas’ public information statutes so the AG won’t do anything. And compared to Bullock at the time of the Big 12’s formation, Abbott and Patrick are political midgets. So Texas politics won’t play a starring role this time.

Also, if the B12 dissolves, Baylor and TCU are well aware that they will get little if any help from UT to find a new home. So when it comes to expansion, BU and TCU will vote their own interests, whatever they perceive them to be.

UH definitely has some leverage here but we probably won’t know it’s source or sources until after the fact.

And why not 4 teams? ESPN spent obscene amounts of money on both the B1G and the ACC. Now they want to block the Big 12’s attempt to catch up and close the gap. If the Big 12 doesn’t go to 14 they are facing falling even further behind the other P5 programs. And even if ESPN is not onboard I’m pretty sure Fox is looking for expansion to fill its bank account.

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ESPN doesn’t treat the conferences like kids and treat them equally. The fact that ESPN did not make a big commitment to the Big 12 after spending gobs of money on the Big 10 and ACC shows that the Big 12 is not as important to ESPN. Follow that line of thinking to 2025 when the TV contract is up. (Remember, too, that Fox signed a new deal with the Big 10 and will gain that inventory and begin broadcasting those games in 2017.)

I think that agrees with what I said. The time for the Big 12 to take a stand is now. Go to 4 more teams and build a conference that has market value in 2025. Or, as I said, surely the B12 will wither and die. You can only fall so far behind and still be taken seriously. And losing the Houston- SE Texas media market will only worsen the situation.

Oh, I think we see eye to eye on how ESPN is showing that the Big 12 isn’t as important to them as the ACC or Big 10. I think where we differ is that you think expansion will make the Big 12 more important to ESPN while I think expansion is an expression that the Big 12 knows ESPN thinks it is less important and is a simple cash grab to take what it can get today.

It all comes down to Tv market & Recruiting.

I know it’s not football related, but kindly care to expound on this? I’m interested to know the poli-sci reasons on how the position has lost power since the early 1990s.

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Agreed on Abbott and Patrick having less clout than Bullock had (not sure there are many in TX history who had more) but they still do have clout. UHs presence in the TX legislature is also larger than it was back then. Both Abbott and Patrick rely on the city of Houston vote and can apply pressure if needed.

In regards to the FOIA request (edit: using the wrong term; should be Texas public information act) yes, It doesn’t apply to Baylor, but their campus PD is now subject to a new TX law that requires them to provide info. Last I heard, Baylor was trying to circumvent by going to the TX AG office and request amnesty, however, the AG hadn’t made an official determination as of yet. (Edit#2: AG office did determine that records could be withheld specifically in regards to the Baylor football cases. However, issue has not been “pressed” since February.)

And while TCU/Baylor knows they won’t get help from UT in the next round, wouldn’t their best interests be to go along with UT now to try to hold the conference together? Why would they choose to add, for example, Cincy-BYU, if UT doesn’t agree? Wouldn’t that hasten UT’s departure if they now know they no longer have power to enforce their will on the conference?

Doesn’t mean that Houston will get in to the Big 12 (always the possibility the conference decides to stand pat) but any expansion rumor that doesn’t include UH at this point is most likely untrue.

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Not sure how a conference can ask for 18+ institutions to present their credentials for inclusion in their conference and then decide to stand pat without a taking a hit to their image / credibility. Anything is possible but that would be a PR nightmare (unless they drag it out so long that no one cares anymore).

Careful about putting words in my mouth. If I gave that impression then let me clarify. I see expansion for the Big 12 being about survival. For whatever reason ESPN seems to have chained the Big 12 to the dog house door. I would hope that by by now the powers that be see that pretty clearly.

The only way they can please ESPN is to take the path of destruction. Adding two teams might buy some time but with the other conferences expanding and building media networks (with ESPN money) the Big 12 might think about something they don’t seem to do well: plan ahead. That means positioning themselves to be the strongest conference they can become with the most market value they can create and come back to ESPN out of strength in 2025. There is still time to salvage this mess, but they better quit screwing around. If UH gets a nibble from another conference we are gone. And that may be really bad news for the future of the Big 12. And don’t forget about Fox. They are a player and want to become a bigger player.

Because right now I don’t think having the Big 12 stand around waiting for a blessing from ESPN is going to work any way you slice it. Remember the Big East. ESPN basically dismantled that conference almost overnight, acting as some kind of overlord assigning teams to other conferences at their whim. They became the king-maker.

So, it’s not about becoming “more important” to ESPN, which sounds like trying to please then. It’s about building the best conference you can build, ESPN be dammed. You can’t make them mad. They are already there in one sense. So you better realize they want to hold the Big 12 down while they spend money, and lots of it, on other conferences. Screw them. You have an enforceable contract. Run with it.

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It seems to me that the Texoma schools are prepared to vote for Houston and WVU is prepared to vote Yes, as long as they get Cincy in …That puts us in a strong position, probably stronger than any other candidate…When the dealing is going on, i think Texas should be able to flip 1 school…I think a league goal is to go to 4, and hope thats what they elect for, but if its 2, i like our position. Texas bloc can simply say, vote Houston in, then lets look at all the other candidates and decide about 1 more, or 3. I sense FOX wants 4 brought in…

I gather you are thinking a compromise of adding 3 … not 2 or 4 but 3 … eh …

The Big13 … with a floater school between two divisions … or alternating one school every 2 years to float.

Would a P5 conference designate itself with that … uhhh … unlucky 13 designation … just to get over an impasse … probably not … might as well go for the gold with four … damn the torpedoes … full speed ahead. :wink:

So it’s the Baylor PD refusing to produce records? You’re right, that is problematic on many levels. Police forces should be among the most transparent of governmental authorities. Baylor may eventually regret creating a police force rather than just a campus security force. FYI, the AG’s decisions on public records are reviewable by the courts. The AG is simply the first arbiter. I’m a really surprised nobody has sued the Baylor PD on this issue.

The combined power of UT/TTU/BU/TCU advocates in the Texas legislature dwarfs UH’s increased presence, which has been an impressive climb by the way, and that combined power will cause the Gov and Lt. Gov to tread carefully in the upcoming legislative session where they both have many more fish to fry than just B12 membership. Plus, there’s been some legit push-back against Texas political interference by the non-Texas based B12 members.

What motivates TCU and BU on this issue is purely speculative. Even UT is a bit of a mystery with DeLoss Dodds out of the picture. Dodds relished setting-up conflicts among UT and other B12 members and then going to extremes to “crush” the opposition. I believe he loved that gamesmanship more than he cared about doing what’s best for UT’s short and long-term future. At least the fact that Dodds considered increasing revenue for UT to be his sole measure of victory made him somewhat predictable or understandable. I assume the current UT decision makers operate under similar (though not necessarily the exact same) parameters as Dodds did. So I agree with a post above that UT will not fall on its sword for UH membership if there is an opportunity for a significant bump in Big 12 revenue, and not just out of greed. Remember that the Horns stills hate the Ags and the thought of A&M possibly earning more money than UT drives them crazy.

BTW, I enjoy your posts and appreciate the discussion.

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