Higher costs and fewer customers killing Texas BBQ joints

It costs me $11 to eat at Whataburger. Food has gotten really expensive across the board.

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If you were an HRM major you would have gotten an A in Food & Beverage Controls back in the day.

Thanks, I did attempt a minor in the Hilton College but unfortunately did not have time for the internship so I basically took a bunch of extra electives there. However, food & beverage controls wasn’t one of them.

I have thought bar bq joints were astronomical for years. The stuff just isn’t that good vs the money spent. Most of it smells and tastes like three layers of burn barrel ash.

Then again, I don’t eat out much. And when I do it ain’t bbq. At least not in the last 15 yrs. I have eaten catered bbq at work and functions maybe 10-15 times over the last 15 yrs. And I get it for visiting family from out of state. I like making my own bbq sauce and cooking brisket.

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Glad you like Pappas. It’s mid lol

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It’s convenient on my way home after softball, on the 59 feeder and open in the evening. Po-boys hold their own with anyone

Fair. I like Tin Roof BBQ and Hickory Hollow.

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I had Whataburger recently (the 3 piece chicken strips), and it just seems that the quality has gone down.

I should have just gone to Layne’s Chicken Fingers. Much better.

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I have owned a small business. Insurance for small business improved with ACA and it’s not debatable. Employees can get the policies, that can be competitive with large business health insurance and then be reimbursed for their cost.

This lowers small business cost and makes them more competitive in hiring. Before the ACA they were screwed to the wall.

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Do not derail this thread TheMandell.

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Alright, there are two opinions on ACA out there. Let’s leave it there.

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Those costs are all tax deductible plus they get tax credits to offset a large percentage of the costs.

Also, let’s keep in mind if employers don’t cover their employees then we, as taxpayers, are going to pick up the tab. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

At the end of the day, the cost of beef has skyrocketed due to firm consolidation, tariffs, plus increased global demand. The Developing World is getting richer and they want steak too!

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Biggest reason beef is so expensive now is that our herds are near all time lows, especially if you consider per capita. Droughts in 2022 and 2023 forced many to sell. I don’t discount your reasons, but the main reason is supply .

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They still hit you up for pork also

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The Screwworm outbreak in Mexico has been pretty devastating.

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Or it could be Ozempic?

A study published in January, by the consulting firm Bain & Company, also revealed that U.S. consumers taking GLP-1s spend an average of 5 percent less on fast food.

Some of the biggest fast food companies are already seeing falling sales and economic analysts have described weight loss drugs as “demand disruptors” in the industry, CBS News reported.

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I don’t think BBQ is considered fast food but yes that could affect demand. My feeling is that the price might be a bigger influence on demand than GLP-1 meds.

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It’s always more than one thing and I’m guessing there are a lot of things stacking. I think cost of beef is the biggest and why we are seeing more in the bbq space.

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You know, BBQ used to not be that big of a deal, at least in the commercial sense. There were small town joints that had been around for decades, and there were chains that provided consistent mediocrity. People certainly weren’t standing outside for 2 hours to buy it. That started to change a little when TM began its Top 50 thing in the late 90s, then it seemed to really take off around 2010, when beef prices were low and stable and so was the cost of borrowing money. And while it wasn’t cheap to buy, it still seemed like a pretty good deal.

“Craft BBQ” started to push prices up a bit as the beef market increased around 2015, and those prices stayed high even when the commodity settled back down. But the last 6 years have been nuts. The price of beef today is about 5.00/lb more than it was at the beginning of 2020. That increase over 6 years is greater than the previous 25 years. This is killing demand, and these BBQ places didn’t plan for a collapse in foot traffic on top of extreme prices.

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For my bbg operation, we bought 22-24 pound briskets because they had the best yield of meat vs fat.

The yield was 38% cooked. So a 24 pound brisket yields 9 pounds.

If a choice brisket hits $5, which is currently possible, the cost per cooked pound is $13.15. You optimally would like a food cost no higher than 35%. So even selling brisket at $20/# it will be hard to get the number under 40% when brisket is the biggest seller.

Reminds me of the bloodletting in the craft beer business.

That’s why some are going to trailers. Remove labor costs and you have a fighting chance