Jay Bilas predictions

Behind a paywall, but he picks every game in the tournament, and explains why.

He has us beating SDSU.

"Kelvin Sampson has a tough team that can rebound and score. Rob Gray is a really good scoring guard who can move all over the floor. He is a right driver and good pull-up jump-shooter. Devin Davis is a good rebounder and Corey Davis is an excellent 3-point threat who has hit almost 100 3-point field goals on the season; he hits 44 percent from deep. San Diego State had a shaky start and looked like it was headed south after getting blasted at Nevada. Yet since then, the Aztecs have won nine in a row, including providing two payback beatings to Nevada on the way to the Mountain West tournament title. Still, Houston should win.

Houston wins and moves on to the second round."

He has us losing to Michigan.

“Moritz Wagner is one of the nation’s best big men, and one of its most versatile. Wagner is an NBA player. Houston is good enough to win this game, but Michigan is better and playing on a high after winning the Big Ten tournament.”

Interestingly, he has Michigan going to the FInal Four.

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Sounds like Bilas is just picking the “bigger” name team to me …

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OR…Michigan is a REALLY good team that is going to give us fits and might actually beat us.

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If I’m being as unbiased as I possibly can, those would be my picks for the first 2 games (but no chance I would pick Michigan going to the Final 4). I think we should beat SDSU. I think we certainly can beat Michigan, but I don’t necessarily think we should win that one. I just don’t see our bigs doing particularly well against an opponent with a really skilled big man. We’ll need to rely heavily on hustling down loose balls and hitting a high percentage from 3.

But will I be picking Michigan to get past us in whatever brackets I fill out this year? Heck no!

don’t have problems with Michigan beating us. Michigan has been one of the hottest teams in cbb lately.

My biggest worry is game 1. The Coog in me worries about being picked to win anything. If we get past game 1, I think we could go along ways.

Strangely enough, I am worried less about Michigan than San Diego State. The Aztecs worry me, big and athletic and on a nine game winning streak.

I hate our first round game, but I love the rest of the west regional.


We can’t afford to take SDS for granted. We learned that lesson in football.

I seriously doubt Sampson is going to let these guys not take SDSU seriously.

If anything, he’ll have them treating the Aztecs like they’re Duke Version 2.0.

We haven’t won a tourney game in over 30 years. We aren’t taking anyone for granted.


This, coupled with the fact that RobG was so upset after losing to Cincy that he couldn’t even manage a smile during the selection announcement, means this team isn’t taking SDSU for granted. Also, this team hasn’t lost consecutive games all year. No need to start now.

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they are on a 9 game win streak, zero percent chance a coach like sampson overlooks them

but as a fan:
this is going to sound cocky…but its hard for me to get too worried about sdsu
at first i was extremely worried about them too, but after watching tons of film on them, i think we should be able to handle them
i know they say they return a player from injury in their streak but teams beat them with him numerous times before his injury…and as much as they talk about their injuries no one mentions Nevada lost one of its best players for the season right before sdsu went on its streak.

they are tall, but their 2 main bigs are boney/stick thin. there is no way i see them getting post position over our guys… i think post points will be there all game …they are similar sized to temple and we had a plus 30 rebound margin on them.
Nevada plays all guards, new mexico has a shooting pf as it’s big…they only played 1 good team in their streak that actually had bigs, boise, and boise out rebounded them and Boise’s bigs aren’t athletic or game changers

their guards arent fast and arent great from the 3 (1 is decent thou)…they like to dribble penetrate but galen/corey can handle that

their bigs can shoot, but we have handled shooting bigs well so far (cincy/temple)

i think they can contain some guards, i don’t see them containing all of them

there are 2 legitimate ways we lose: we get in deep foul trouble(their bigs are frail)…or their bigs shoot 5+ from 3…at that point if bigs are hitting shots like that, the bball gods decided who was going to win before the game.


Michigan’s 6’11 big man that can shoot 3’s could give us fits. Thats what is a huge concern if we get the next round. We still need to be locked in because 1 game anything can happen so we have to be ready to play.

sdsu’s bigs shoot 3s aswell…so we’ll get that round 1 too

I think that Rob is going to drive SDSU’s big men to distraction and aid them to fouling out and giving him a lot of foul shots. Ditto for Galen. I think we are faster than SDSU. _


While half way listening to TV Sports show, one commentator commented someone gave SDSU a 68 percent chance of beating UH . . . . . At least that is what I think I heard. Other commentators had UH winning . . . . .

Shockers big guy hit us with a 3, and Kyle Washington was 2/3 from 3 in the Championship game, including the shot that killed us. We have had to defend interior guys shooting the 3 already. Hopefully we execute better this time:)

Facts to ponder…
SDS is ranked #100 in FG%. UH #77.
SDS is ranked #233 in 3pt%. UH #34.
SDS is ranked #106 in total pts. UH #69.
SDS is ranked #70 in total rebounds. UH #35

SDS has won 9 games in a row.
SDS finished 4th in the MWC.
SDS season record is 22-10; 11-7 in MWC.

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SDSU sounds like the 2010 version of the Coogs. Got hot at just the right time to make it to the tourney, but that was about it.