When it comes to a NY6 bowl, remember ESPN controls the bowls for the most part. They can pretty much add the AAC champ as a pemanent fixture if they want.
Again, a GoR is fine as long as it doesn’t extend further than the BigXII GoR. When the BigXII GoR expires, the whole system is going to blow up and the final realignment will take place creating a de facto P4 division.
I am almost certain that
the playoff will not expand beyond four teams
the reason the playoff won’t expand is because everyone is anticipating four power conferences of 16 teams each. Four team playoff - four power conferences
Houston’s only hope to go P4 is the PAC
None of the other top AAC teams would sign a GoR for the same reasons as us, namely if they extend beyond the BigXII GoR and they hope to be added to a P4 as well, which might muddy the waters
If anyone feels any differently, I would love to hear it.
My guess is that ESPN tries to get a GoR till the year beyond the BigXII’s expiration to avoid having the top AAC teams, which have proven to pull eyeballs and TV sets, defect to the remaining four power conferences. Why pay more than you have to? The AAC has no other leverage for a higher payout than a GoR. In the end, this is why I don’t think it will happen.
The risk either way is huge. Take less money and risk being left out, or take the money and risk missing the next realignment. If the next round of realignment happens and we aren’t selected, it is game over. We will be in college football purgatory forever.
I’m fine with doing this but I don’t think it gets done. You have to be all in on this with the other top schools. Otherwise it doesn’t work. That’s a tall order for especially UCF who has to be feeling amazing about their realignment prospects at the moment.
Expansion/realignment will not be driven by the conferences, it will be driven by the media. The Big 10 will add any G5 tomorrow morning if they are offered the right about of money by the media. Heck the Big 12 will add Lamar if ESPN told them to.
ESPN offering a slightly sweeter deal in return for a GoR is only their way of locking up the conference in a long term contract. ESPN has the ACC and Big 12 locked up. Those conferences aren’t adding anyone without ESPN approval, that leaves SEC and Big 10. Neither of those would be interested in any AAC program, except maybe UH, and even then it’s a really long shot. I doubt there is any G5 or combination of G5 programs that will move the needle enough for the Big 10 or SEC to even look at them. If the B10 and SEC expand it will be with some combination of UT, OU, KU.
In a way UH by virtue of its geography is sitting pretty when it comes to P5 odds. It can be snapped up by Big 12, Pac, ACC. Cincy, Memphis, UCF and UCF have only got the Big 12, with ACC a slight possibility.
This right here let’s me know this article is full of crap.
The smallest of the power five leagues gave expansion a thorough examination two years ago and opted to pass, deciding that Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston didn’t add enough value.
Well they got what they wanted (more money) without expansion. So in a way the article is correct, expansion would not have added much more.
Blaming the conference is not entirely fair. I think the higher blame lies with the networks. Any conference will add any program/s if that/those program/s have support of the networks. Conversely no conference will add any program if the networks tell the conference not to.
There are a lot of questions on the AAC message board. Some of the more popular ones are…
Who leaked this?
If it was the networks, are they trying to fracture the conference members over a possible GoR to devalue the new TV deal?
If it was a school, are they upset because it is tiered?
What happens to UConn? The Big East wants to expand by one school, and UConn is it.
If UConn leaves, would it really affect the per school payout? Then, would the AAC stick to 11 teams or invite another school?
Would unequal revenue sharing work? This conference has had defacto tiered payouts from the beginning. Navy gets extra money for the Army game, Legacy members (USF, UConn, and Cincy) have gotten extra money from departure fees - nearly quadruple what we have been getting per year.
How much would the schools get if the payouts were tiered? Some say upwards of $15M for UH, UCF, Cincy, USF, and Memphis and some say more in the $8M range for the top schools.
One of the things not being debated and seems certain is that the GoR deal would be for around 10 years, but the payout could be significantly higher, even for the lower tiered schools. They want to lock schools in. This isn’t to mention that many believe GoR deals are challengeable in court, i.e. even if we sign we could still get out of it.
In the end, I say take what you can get now. There is no promise for the future. I personally like the AAC and this could mean stability for the member schools. We have been playing a lot of these teams for a long time now. The BigXII dream is over. The ACC ain’t happening and the PAC is a long shot. Take the money while you can.
If P5orBust is right, then we should certainly take the money and agree to a GOR. If the media dictates expansion, our fate is sealed—they’ve already paid the Big12 not to expand. So why should we forgo certain money simply to hold out for an option that the media has foreclosed? Regardless of who is pulling the strings on expansion, UH likely has to take the bird in the hand (assuming a GOR in exchange for significantly more $ is really an option).
And no conference other than the Big12 has shown any interest in adding UH.
Not every program in the AAC is likely to be a Power 5 candidate. But if you’re UCF, a huge school that’s gone undefeated in football two years in a row, with a competent basketball program, and in a large, growing city, do you want to completely close yourself off to other potential opportunities? What about Houston, USF, Cincinnati, or Memphis?
But signing over your TV rights in exchange for more money takes Big 12 membership in 2025, or movement into another Power 5 league, off the table. Sure, earning $8 million a year from TV is pretty good. But the Big 12 paid out over $33 million to each school last year.
I’m sure schools like Baylor, TCU or Iowa State would love for AAC schools to sign a GOR so when the B12 falls apart, there will be room for them in other P4s. If AAC does not sign it, Baylor and those other schools may get left out of expansion since some P4s may want some AAC teams.
Everybody on the internet loves the idea of 4 conferences with 16 teams because it makes sense, is even, cookie cutter, etc, but when has college football ever been that? I still don’t see the Pac expanding just to expand. I am sure they will make one more run at UT/OU in a few years, but is it worth it to add 4 teams just to add them? They weren’t thrilled with Tech/OK St last time so I am not sure what would change. Also if OK State ended up in the SEC or something, is UH, Tech, New Mexico?, Kansas St? worth the add?
I think the AAC should be trying to position itself to be there to steal Tech/TCU/West Virginia/Kansas St if the Big 12 blows up. Not sure if it could work, would be a stronger conference for the Big 12 to just steal Houston, Cincy, UCF, USF. Maybe I am just hoping for a scenario where Baylor ends up in CUSA!
As of right now, I see the Big 12 continuing to survive and not expanding unless told to do so.