Realistically when do you think our first mission to Mars will happen?
Since manned mission to moon is targeted
for mid 2027, I anticipate it will slip to 2030 and onto Mars much later.
Musk says humans to Mars by 2030. Not even remotely realistic in my mind.
I’d think 2050 at earliest, if no major wars, famine, or pandemic.
We’ll see it during our lifetimes if we are both VERY lucky.
Right after fusion energy is realized. “We’re only 20 years away!” - 1985
I don’t think it will happen in our lifetime
It costs way too much money, and taxpayer money is better spent on the problems we are currently facing and will face in the future
Keep in mind, the moon landing was largely for military purposes.
There’s really no national security threat that deems a necessary mars landing UNLESS it’s completely privately funded, which maybe 5 people in the entire world would be willing to pay for it
But again, what for?
Private corporations with the American flag
We live in unprecedented times so therefore it is impossible to predict.
NASA started just like the ussr space program with the help of nazi rocket scientists. By all engineering accounts launched (no pun intended) the space race at a much faster speed that anyone would have predicted.
JFK set a goal in 1961 just a few years later in 1969 we were walking on the moon.
It brought us much more than tang and Velcro tape. It brought us the reality that nothing is impossible.
At the time there were two nations at it.
Fast forward to today. You now have many nations with their own space program. India, the ccp to name a few. What is doubly unprecedented is that we have multiple, yes multiple space program companies in the U.S.A.
Who would have thought even seven years ago that SpaceX would be at the level that they are today?
We currently have two astronauts stuck in space and who is coming to the rescue to repatriate them? Yes SpaceX. But we now have Bezos, Blue Origin program too. There are others companies that I could add.
We find ourselves in unique times. Given the chance that NASA adding EUSPA NASA European space partners, SpaceX and Blue Origin actually working together for a common goal, walk on Mars indeed nothing is impossible.
It won’t happen next year but you can be sure it is going to happen much sooner than anyone can even imagine. I would not be surprised that it will happen in the next 10 years. For all the naysayers remember one thing. Almost everyone laughed at JFK’s goal. He made that statements in 1961. We walked on the moon in 1969.
There is a great quote from a certain Carl Lewis. It goes like this.
“If you don’t have confidence you will always find a way not to win”
Nothing is impossible friends.
There would have to be some technological breakthrough to make it more feasible for sure. Plus I doubt Elon wants to put up his own funds for it, I know I wouldn’t if I was him.
If we spend something like the below from the 1960s, it could happen relatively quickly. That said, we obviously won’t.
You and I have no idea. What we know for sure is that we have close to three times the amounts of companies fully invested in the space industry. SpaceX alone proves you wrong.
If China says there interested in going to Mars and they have, that’s enough for our government to do it, just like us going back to the moon and building bases. The Chinese and Russian have said there going to the moon and going to build moon bases there. Some time in the late 2035-2040 I would say timeline wise for Mars
What is unfeasable about it?
My buddy said there are biological concerns for the crew.
My other buddy said we could do it, its just a matter of resources. I think Elon would put everything in to make it happen, for his legacy
Oh, I have an idea. We are currently trying to cut costs, not add to them. At least that’s what is being said.
And SpaceX isn’t spending anywhere near 4% of the federal budget. That’s a massive number (like $300B/year). But go ahead and show me how that company proves anything I said wrong.
Mostly agree; when we did the moon race ,
national debt wasn’t at 120+% of GDP.
It takes nine months just to get to Mars with current technology. So that’s at least two years for a mission, depending on how long anyone stays there. Now think about it, we currently (I think that’s still current) have people stuck in space waiting for a lift home that has been delayed a few times for various issues.
If you need to resupply the team on Mars, and it takes 9 months to get there, not to mention the cost in dollars, what do you do if something goes wrong with the resupply?
That’s one major issue that I think makes it unfeasible with current technology.
Matt Damon grew potatoes on Mars. Sorry couldn’t resist.
Water has to be a huge issue
This is all I can think about when I hear the name Matt Damon. 20 years later and it’s still stuck in my head. Lol
You are looking at it from an “old” angle. That is why I am including NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and others. We are not reasoning from a “stand alone” Nationalized company like NASA is. We are truly in an unprecedented space age. With that many private companies mixed with Nationalized companies on all four continents it is all for the better to get us to Mars sooner than anyone can imagine.
What is SpaceX and Blue Origin spending vs results? That is the question that is relevant today. What SpaceX is doing vs what NASA is doing today was unimaginable just a couple of years ago today.
I’m not thinking in old terms. You brought up how we got to the moon and I told you what that cost. It’s FAR more than what we are currently spending across the board.
No one is spending at anything approaching what we spent then. We are spending a very small fraction of that. It’s impossible to know how much spacex and blue orgin are spending but I saw an estimate of $10-20B/year combined. Let’s take the high end, that’s 7% of the equivalent of what the US was spending to send us to the moon in the 1960s.
Until that changes (and I don’t know how it will without the federal government subsidizing it in a massive way), we aren’t going to mars anytime soon. No private company can shell out that money.
Let’s take your word for it. No one and I mean no one expected SpaceX to be where there are at today just five years ago. NASA related Dollars can’t be translated into SpaceX related Dollars. Just in 10 years SpaceX has achieved successes that cost NASA $Billions in today’s Dollars. I would like to invite you to look at SpaceX and Blue Origin with a different approach than NASA.
Anyhow SpaceX is clearly heading to Mars and with Musk at the helm expect the unexpected.