I’ve received lots of flack over some of my opinions regarding Houston’s urban sprawl, so I’m going to make a thread about it because I’ve become quiet passionate about it over the last year or so.
Houston’s growth since the 50s, which coincided with white flight and the scaling of automobiles, has resulted in the construction of highways, deforestation, and cheap housing that continues to sprawl outward.
This growth strategy (which I referred as a form of a Ponzi scheme), results in an unsustainable cycle of new suburban development that inevitably declines over and over again, largely because the low density suburbs do not generate enough tax revenue to pay for the long term maintenance costs. These costs are either supplemented by a reduction in school budgets / service budgets, or they are merely dumped on later-generation suburban residents resulting in school district declines (which we are seeing right now), which then people move further outward to avoid the financial mess and increased taxes
In order to prevent suburbs from declining, suburbs such as Katy and Sugarland must either pay higher taxes or densify with smaller houses, apartments and townhomes. The problem, is that this type of method is the very thing that suburban residents aim to avoid because it attracts crime and economic diversity.
Continuous sprawl in Houston, is coming at a huge cost to the climate due to deforestation and more cement construction. Woodlands, TX for example, is having to clear trees more and more which is angering their historical residents.
The other issue, is that there is eventually going to be a point where expansion is no longer possible. Either due to fossil fuel decline (cement cannot be made without fossil fuels, and if fossil fuel demand declines, cement production costs will skyrocket), or because there is no more room for further sprawl
This will eventually lead to reverse gentrification, including both the inner loop as well as areas inside the beltway (I would look into East Aldine, the last remaining area with large, NATURAL parks like Keith Weiss Park). This area will eventually turn into what Garden Oaks / Oak Forest, which lays right outside the 610 loop in the northwest side.
Signs of this unsustainable growth is already appearing today. School budget cuts, fire department unionizing, and crime in formerly “safe” suburbs like Katy and Cypress.
Eventually, HISD is going to essentially become bankrupt, forcing more low income people to move to places like Cypress and Katy because they’re the only districts that are still semi-adequately operational, further causing decline in those suburbs
As a result, already-increasing gentrification in the inner loop will spread into the inner beltway. The older, outer suburbs will become the “bad areas” with pockets of money still remaining in the most outer suburbs. However, those pockets will eventually be forced to leave or move closer into the city
Which cities west of the mississippi grow and which cities don’t grow will be based on water availability. Most of the cities in the west are running out of water. Houston is the one big city other than Seattle that has an abundance of water. I think the Houston MSA is going to continue to grow out to Bryan / College Station.
I agree, but the reason this is happening is because there isn’t as much pushback in certain areas of the beltway that are poor.
The outer suburbs beyond the beltway will never allow for a mass construction of apartments that are affordable (also zoning laws prevent this from happening too)
Essentially, people move to the suburbs to avoid issues that come with density. Well… if places like Conroe become dense, then what’s the point of living all the way out in Conroe?
There’s no way in hell people are going to want to commute that far to get to work. Are there some people willing to do it? Sure. Enough? No.
Here’s the problem.
Both urban cores AND suburbs are rejecting new sprawling construction in masse (for different reasons), but for suburbs it’s because it’ll lower housing values
Construction costs are going to continue getting more expensive post-2008
Zoning. Zoning. Zoning. Right now, it’s theoretically impossible for residential apartments to be built in the outer most suburbs that are affordable
The outer suburbs of Houston are seeing increased property values/taxes because of a supply issue. Not because those are hot spot destinations.
People want to live closer to the city, but they can’t afford it. The other issue is that the older suburbs in the beltway, as of now, have the worst school districts.
Reverse sprawling in Houston is inevitable, but it’s going to take some form of a e economic crash.
You are assuming the people that live on the outskirts will work downtown. Houston has multiple businesses districts.
But I agree with you inside the loop will continue to get denser and some of the areas like the 3rd ward will gentrify.
If there is one bonanza of a real estate play it is the 3rd ward. Nestled right between three universities, the Med Center and Downtown. Plus it doesn’t flood.
I agree, but I think I was referring to the current infrastructure.
I think the inner beltway should continue adding density, including more commercial office space.
I don’t think adding more office space in communities such as The Woodlands, makes a whole lot of sense in the long term. It’s a disaster for the climate, and it forces more dependency on cars (people living in say, Sugarland, traveling all the way to The Woodlands for a job).
It makes no sense, and again, the urban core is essentially subsidizing it’s own demise if this strategy continues happening.
