NO PAC12 Expansion

This is an interview of Jon Wilner reporter, this guy reports on and covers all things PAC12, he’s the insider insider reporter same guy who reported on Houston being no. 1 clear choice for PAC12 to expand. Pickup the interview around 3:50 time line. If you don’t want watch entire video. Some very interesting remarks he made about expansion by the PAC12 in the future.

Points made

  1. PAC12 did not expand so it can give B12 chance to stabilize.

  2. PAC12 knows they need to expand

  3. Waiting on media rights, to go to NFL model don’t want ESPN having all there inventory, B1G feels the same way.

I believe this fairs well for UH!

Here’s the video.

Link

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The recording did not say the Pac-12 as a conference is going to expand. They were talking about the Pac-12 wanting the expansion of the 12 team CFP.

Wilmer still the go to regional guy on the P12.
“Jon Wilner joins the show to talk to Paul about if the Pac-12 should consider expansion, or contraction.”
Also revisit the 2011 possible move of UT/TT/OK/Ok State to Pac12.
From 10:00-23:00 .

That makes no sense.

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Wilner said PAC is in decision making process if they should expand, there revisiting the situation

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That ship has sailed.

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You are probably right the ship has sailed, but be careful about stating absolutes. All it would take is some study that justified paying the PAC double the media contract of the BIG 12 if they were to add some schools and bang, those four schools would be gone. I also doubt that would happen but will not say it as an absolute.

I’d say it with certainty.

It’s like McMurphy said. NO Big 12 school adds enough value to make PAC-12 expansion to the Big 12 worth their while.

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The video did suggest that the pac will wait and decide on expansion when their contract is up so that they open it up on the free market vs just espn.

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Would we owe anything if we pulled a tcu like when they almost went to the big East then decided on the big12 before playing games? That’s the big issue if something did happen like this.

I assume we signed the same conference contract the other Big12 schools signed which is an exit fee of about $80M. UH isn’t going anywhere but to the Big12.

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No , UH is not a member of the big12 , not until July 1 2023. Any exit fee penalty UH pays between now and then is to the AAC.

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The 80mil buyout says no one is going anywhere so that is good. The pac messed up waiting bc p5 teams aren’t leaving and only g5 left. They likely don’t expand then. 80 mil is too much to go from big12 to pac.

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The PAC 12 has decided against expansion.

And,yes, their future Media contracts could change minds.

I predict that the future contract will be good enough and they continue to stand pat.

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So I think we can end the pac exp discussion if it’s true all big12 teams would have to pay 80 mil to leave including us. It also means the big 12 is stable and and Kansas and west vir aren’t leaving. They likely stay at 12 teams. Also, strange as it seems the pac prob wanted the big 12 to survive bc it gives them another conf along with the AAC as the 3 leagues with something in common in rev etc vs the Big10 and Sec. Had the big12 gone away, it could have started a deal where there are only 3 major conferences left or 4 and the pac wants just 12 teams so they could have been weakened overall in fighting the sec and big. They now have us and the Acc on their side.

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No UH is not obligated to pay 80 million. It will be equal to distribution to each member, for UH it’s ~ 16 million for first year. No need to discuss 2nd Year.

Well we’d have to know the numbers. If it’s 16 mil first yr then we’re in a good position vs other big 12 teams if the pac expands.

We are not going to the PAC12 within a year so don’t worry about it.

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Our first year it is 50% of whatever the number is for Big 12 schools for that particular year…With Texas and OU likely still in the Big 12, my guess would be 38 million, and we would get 19. It will be more than 16 because the big 12 is going to get more than 32 mil per school in 2023.

Barring a scenario where the Big 12 is raided between now and July 1, 2023…we will play our first P5 game in the Big12.

It would take a coordinated efforts from the networks to kill the Big 12 by July 1, 2023.

Something monumental like UH + TT + OSU + TCU/Baylor/ or someone else receiving invitarions to the PAC plus…
Kansas + ISU receiving invitations to the B1G plus…
Cincinnati + UCF/WVU receiving invitations to the ACC.

I’m guessing we won’t have two major shifts in a 2 year period…not happening …we will be joining the Big 12.

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