I’m not saying you’re wrong at all, and my scenario is probably more unlikely than likely. However, hear me out.
If FSU, Clemson and UNC all leave the ACC, then it’s unlikely that the remaining members, especially schools like Miami and Louisville are going to accept whatever deal is offered by ESPN. That’s assuming ESPN even wants to offer a renegotiated deal without its best 3 members.
SEC: there’s no doubt in my mind that the SEC would much rather have UNC than Clemson. Same market, but Clemson has lost momentum in the last couple of years. The world of NIL and the Portal is clearly hurting Clemson. U of Florida and FSU is essentially redundant markets. Clemson will just be a revenue diluter.
B1G: I just don’t feel confident that all B1G schools will unanimously vote in 2 schools that aren’t even AAU. It just isn’t worth it when they already make the most money over all other conferences. I think UNC is the only exception of expansion (excluding Notre Dame)
ESPN: Clemson and FSU remaining in ESPN inventory is all that matters to ESPN. It’s just about how they can rearrange the landscape to generate the most profit
FOX: Just because the B1G doesn’t want FSU and Clemson, doesn’t necessarily mean FOX doesn’t want them. If FOX wants in on that Carolina/Florida market, then there is a chance by having them in the Big 12
FSU & Clemson: I don’t think that either of these schools are so eager to join the SEC for sheer revenue specifically , I think both of them just want MORE than what they make now. Regardless of conference.
Big 12: if Yormark can negotiate with ESPN/FOX in the scenario that they add FSU, Clemson AND Miami to the Big 12, then I think there could be a chance that these additions would close the gap (not fully, but maybe 80%) between the Big 12 and SEC which would satisfy FSU and Clemson. Especially if those schools feel confident they could dominate in the Big 12 instead of the SEC which is much much tougher.
CFP: if the Big 12 lands FSU, Clemson and Miami, then they have a better negotiation at the CFP table for more share of the payouts. Also, FSU and Clemson may feel they have an easier shot at the playoff playing Big 12 teams instead of the Alabama’s, OU’s and Texas’ of the world.
TLDR: I think adding FSU, Clemson and Miami to the Big 12 wouldn’t dilute revenue but actually add to it. It is also is an easier path to the CFP.
In my opinion, it’s not that much of reach now that I think about it
I hope you are right as this i sour bet hope at having a true P3, with the Big 12 having somewhat of a punchers chance of becoming a peer of the other two.
So…in this dream scenario…
B1G adds Notre Dame & Virginia to get to 20.
SEC adds North Carolina & Duke as a package deal to get to 18 . I say Duke for 2 reasons 1) UNC and Duke are very important partners, athletically and academically. 2) the SEC has made it a mission to improve their Basketball reputation and having UNC + Duke + Kansas + growing rising programs Alabama, Tennessee & Texas A&M helps.
Big 12 thanks everyone for the gift and immediately adds FSU & Clemson to get to 18.
The next question is does the SEC counter to get to 20?
North Carolina State
Virginia Tech
Miami
Louisville
PITT
would be on the board.
IF the SEC acts, the Big 12 takes the next best two. IF they pass, the Big 12 adds North Carolina State & Virginia Tech. I wouldn’t add 3 Florida Schools if two new large states are on the board. first but if the SEC acts and leaves Miami on the board, then you take them .
Are you kidding me… adding FSU + Clemson + NC State + V Tech would be a dream! We really fill in the Atlantic Coast with those adds!
I just don’t think it will happen, Notre dame will balk which will disrupt the 3 x 20 P3.
Probably the first time in a long time that I agree with your opinion in this scenario, however, if B1G ends up snatching UNC then I don’t think the SEC expands at all.
If the Big 12 gets FSU, Clemson and Miami, then the Big 12 either stops there or adds MAYBE 1 more (thinking Louisville or V-Tech)
The rest will unfortunately be forced to be G5 because there aren’t any schools that will backfill them to remain an autonomy conference
Yeah but having Clemson essentially makes having NC State redundant.
Also, I think that NC State is going to litigate against someone, I don’t know who, in an attempt to be attached with UNC as much as possible. (Not saying I believe they will be in the same conference). They may take it to federal court.
You betcha that every single “on-the-cusp” school remaining in the ACC is going to fight for their survival
Yes, Clemson is the bigger football brand today but North Carolina is in the bigger more powerful state and is in a growing Austin like metro (Raleigh) that already has distinguished itself as the Research triangle.
Those things will matter to Big 12 presidents.
Plus, I don’t see Clemson doing well in a post NIL environment- poor state in a small town with few marketing opportunities and with poor t-shirt fans.
I’m not saying pick NC State over Clemson IF you only have one spot left…I’m just saying don’t underestimate NC State’s higher ceiling.