Power Ratings Update

Cougar Football
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Based on an average of four of the most accurate power ratings, we are rated stronger than every team left on the schedule.

Factoring in 3 points for home field advantage, every game on the schedule is pick’em or better.

Team Dokter Pi Mean Team Rk ESPN FPI AVG HFA Spread
Houston 52.4 100.7 3.6 3 39.9
At Tulane 42.5 98.7 3.1 3.9 37.1 40.1 -0.1
at Tulsa 45.6 99.3 -2.1 -0.9 35.5 38.5 1.5
SMU 50.2 97.3 1.8 5.8 38.8 35.8 4.1
Memphis 49.4 95.2 1.4 1.9 37.0 34.0 6.0
East Car 44.5 94.6 -2.2 -7.7 32.3 29.3 10.6
At USF 32.1 87.8 -13.3 -12.6 23.5 26.5 13.4
At Temple 30.6 81.2 -19.1 -15.5 19.3 22.3 17.6
Navy 30.3 84.3 -20.1 -23.1 17.9 14.9 25.1
At UConn 14.6 69.1 -32.5 -30.6 5.2 8.2 31.8
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Next two games are virtual toss ups per the power ratings.

Team Dokter Pi Mean Team Rk ESPN FPI AVG HFA Spread
Houston 50.9 99.5 0.8 -0.5 37.7
At Tulane 41.5 97.7 1.4 -1.5 34.8 37.8 -0.1
At Tulsa 45 99 -3.3 -0.9 35.0 38.0 -0.3
SMU 52.4 101.5 4.5 7.8 41.6 38.6 -0.9
Memphis 47.7 94.9 0.9 1.2 36.2 33.2 4.5
At USF 34.4 89.1 -10.9 -11.2 25.4 28.4 9.3
East Car 43.6 93.6 -5.5 -9.6 30.5 27.5 10.2
At Temple 31.8 81.4 -17.3 -15.1 20.2 23.2 14.5
At UConn 17.4 72.5 -29.8 -27.6 8.1 11.1 26.6
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I like our chances.

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Outlook has improved with recent showing at Tulsa…

I see Vegas has us a 4 point favorite at Tulane.

Team Dokter Pi Mean Team Rk ESPN FPI AVG HFA Spread
Houston 54.2 102.2 5.8 4.3 41.6
At Tulane 41.3 94.8 -2.8 -4.9 32.1 35.1 6.5
SMU 52.2 102.7 5.5 7.7 42.0 39.0 2.6
Memphis 47.5 93.5 -2.3 -1.1 34.4 31.4 10.2
At USF 34.2 88.2 -12 -11 24.9 27.9 13.8
East Car 43.4 97 -2.1 -6.5 33.0 30.0 11.7
At Temple 31.6 82.5 -15.6 -14 21.1 24.1 17.5
At UConn 17.3 73.1 -29.3 -27.2 8.5 11.5 30.2
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These ratings appear to be on different scales. Therefore you need to normalize them before taking the average for the average to be meaningful in the way you would like it to be. Otherwise the ratings on the larger scales will have more weight than the ratings with smaller scales.

Still, just by looking at the numbers, you can tell that Houston is ranked higher than the other teams. The one exception might be SMU.

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Each is predictive, meaning each is meant for point spreads. (Not only that, each is among the best predictive ratings available over the last few years.)

With most predictive ratings, the top school is about 60 points better than the bottom school and we see that with each of these. See below.

So there is no normalization required. Only averaging.

Dokter Pi Rate Team Rank ESPN FPI
Top Team 74.9 134 33.9 28.2
Bottom Team 14.1 70.1 -29.9 -29
Difference 60.8 63.9 63.8 57.2
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Kelvin Sampson’s philosophy on life, sports and everything applies here:

Work hard, play defense, surrender your ego to the team and don’t turn the ball over.

It is very Zen. It is also the how the Borg operate. My advice to the AAC and the Big 12 is surrender resistance is futile.

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Absolutely. In fifteen straight Intergalactic Championships the Borg has turned the meteor over a total of three times.

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Hey Chiklets,
I didn’t realize the 60 points deal. Thanks for clarifying that for me. I feel much better about the averages now.

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Favored the rest of the way. Toughest games at home.

ECU line came out 14. I expect that to come down a point during the week to 13…

Team Dokter Pi Mean Team Rk ESPN FPI AVG HFA Spread
Houston 56.7 103.7 6.4 5.3 43.0
SMU 53.2 102.6 4.2 5.8 41.5 38.5 4.6
East Car 45.9 97.3 -2.8 -6.8 33.4 30.4 12.6
Memphis 46.5 93.8 -2.5 -2.2 33.9 30.9 12.1
At USF 35.4 88.1 -11.9 -11.1 25.1 28.1 14.9
At Temple 32 82.3 -17 -15.9 20.4 23.4 19.7
At UConn 19.2 71.4 -29.4 -26.6 8.7 11.7 31.4
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Excellent!

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Projected 3 point favorites vs. SMU

Team Dokter Pi Mean Team Rk ESPN FPI AVG HFA Spread
Houston 55.5 103.7 6.5 4.7 42.6
SMU 53.9 102.6 6.1 7 42.4 39.4 3.2
Memphis 45.2 93.8 -2.6 -2.5 33.5 30.5 12.1
At USF 36.2 88.1 -10.4 -10.2 25.9 28.9 13.7
At Temple 29.9 82.3 -18.7 -17.4 19.0 22.0 20.6
At UConn 17.2 71.4 -31.6 -28.1 7.2 10.2 32.4