On the surface I see no logical reason why
Colorado State and Air Force would leave the MWC to play the likes of Temple and USF…I’m beginning to believe they have some inside knowledge or stong suspicion that Boise and SDSU are front and center for the next round of B12 expansion, and they’re jumping ship before it sinks…at any rate if this occurs, the MWC as we knew it is dead…
It’s about the money. In the AAC will get $7 million in the MWC they only get $4 million.
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SDSU isn’t going yo the B12
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Service academies can have different motives than other institutions, like how Navy wanted to play in the AAC West for recruiting reasons.
It does seem curious. I think SDSU and Boise are the two most valuable assets in the MWC.
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AAC has better recruiting territory. With the only viable recruiting territory in the MWC belonging to three schools in the West division, it shouldn’t be surprising that Air Force and CSU want to bail for a conference that has schools in TX, FL, and PA.
I think there are some decent options for the AAC. But how would 3 mil more a year convince a western school to do all that travel plus rebranding plus changes in recruiting areas? Just seems silly to me for a conference that’s already better in football.
Now…if the AAC could pull off an Army and AF that would be a great coup in my book. They could market the conference, “Truly ‘American!’”
I don’t think Memphis is either. Unless PAC 12 decided to expand by raiding B12 schools I think realignment is done for now.
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Pulling in Army is going to be logistically impossible because it would mean the Army-Navy game has to move to the regular season. The better solution would be a Notre Dame-like arrangement for them, but that’s kind of pointless since they aren’t joining for other sports and they’re already going to play a lot of AAC teams anyway.
The AAC is the ‘On Deck’ League to a P5…of course they are going to make the jump to a more lucrative, more exposure type of League.
The last 5 G5 schools to get the call up to the P5 ALL came from the American Athletic Conference:
Rutgers (B1G)
Louisville (ACC)
Houston (Big 12)
Cincinnati (Big 12)
Central Florida (Big 12)
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Good points all. (T-Moar/1927)
This is why I only comment on realignment from a rote competitive level. I don’t have a background in corporate strategy and PR.
I can really see this move elevating Colorado State.
Who, on the east coast, knows anything about CSU right now?
Well they were getting $7 million with UCF, UH, and Cincy still in the league
Yes, I remember certain teams being classified as A teams and B teams (on the TV deal) and if x number of teams in these categories left the deal would be renegotiated
I think only Colorado State and Air Force are seriously considering it at the moment. New Mexico and Wyoming might be interested if asked. They’re not as far away from the AAC as are some of the others.
One big and lesser-discussed reason is exposure. Money is only part of the value of the AAC’s TV deal. The other is how often we appear on TV and are promoted. Not just the teams that are leaving, so presumably that won’t change all that much. Maybe fewer games on ESPN1/2 and more on ESPNU, but all of that is better than Fox and CBS (where they aren’t getting the good slots anyway). I think one of the reasons our conference has excelled and MWC has stagnated is exposure.
I also think they’re tired of Boise’s s**t. They’d be members among equals (more or less). AAC teams don’t go around suing one another.
It’s possible that the AAC gets raided again, but if it is then Boise is probably gone from the AAC. Either with or without Big 12 expansion, the AAC is the more attractive conference.
As someone else mentioned, recruiting ground. They’re not on TV and they’re not playing in Fertile recruiting ground except maybe one game a year in California.
I was thinking that if Memphis had gone instead of us that we should talk to the MWC, but the more I’ve read the more I think the AAC is in a better position under almost any scenario for any school east of the Rockies. So I won’t at all be surprised if they make the jump.
I think the AAC TV contract is actually still in pretty good shape. If the playoffs expand to 12, the AAC will be in as many years as not or more. One of the thoughts I had when that plan was revealed is that the AAC’s value just went up and there was nothing the conference could do about it. If ESPN chooses to renegotiate the contract, then the AAC can walk. Considering how little ESPN is paying for the AAC, I don’t think they want that to happen (and I think they can afford to gamble that there will be a playoffs and that the AAC will have access to them). But we’ll see.
Yah I remembered that being the case and all three departing teams were from the higher classification. So I just dont see why a MWC team would want to make the jump. Now a Sun Belt or C-USA team? Absolutely. Go get App State or Lafayette or both.
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Big 12 will not expand again for years. That is social media driven. My guess is that UAB and UTSA are a lock for the AAC. Maybe the two Colorado schools as well
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IF (and its a BIG IF) the B12 adds AZ/AZ State/Utah after a PAC implosion they would make a great fit.
Other than that remote possibility, doubt they leave the MWC.
FWIW
Message board scuttlebutt is they both did formal interviews last week.
Only 12 months notice needed but the MWC buyout is a hefty amount of cash. MWC schools making the move must be sure the ESPN $ is not going away.
“The Mountain West requires only 12 months’ notice but three times the previous year’s conference payout from the TV contract, sponsorships and NCAA Tournament distributions. That totals about $12.5 million. If there’s less than a year notice, it doubles.”
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