http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Sagarin Ratings imply that UH will lose only to Tulsa this year and go 11-1 (7-1). One assumption I made is that the Texas Tech game is a home game rather than a neutral field game.
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11-1?? I willl take that!
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SOUNDS GOOD TO ME!!!
Except as the Polly Prez…I’ll one up you…12-0 IT IS!!!
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Would luv that!!
It’s never acceptable to lose to Tulsa.
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12-0. But damn… Make me eat my words papi Tune.
11-1, God bless.
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It’s kinda of hard to put that much faith in a QB who hasn’t completed at least 59.7% percent of his passes in his 3 years here at UH. And has a 26 td to 19 int ratio in his last two years as full time starter.
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I will never complain about 11-1 but… Tulane? nah…
I hear ya. What is Tune’s record as a starting QB? I calculated 5-12, but I may be off a game or two.
On the other hand, the stars are in alignment for UH’s schedule this year, and Tune has more experience now.
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Tune has about as much as experience as one can get as a college QB coming into this season. Excuses are out the window this year, its put up or shut up time.
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How are you calculating 11-1 based upon the rating? Just curious.
Sagarin ratings are intended to be used to calculate win margins.
[Home team rating] + [Home field advantage] - [Visitor rating] = Home team margin of victory (loss)
Okay, based upon the ratings, which is the percentage chance a team goes .500 or wins 50% of their games, we have a 70% chance of being at least 6-6. At the bottom, Tech is a slight favorite in our first game per Sagarin.
…or am I reading this wrong? It is what it says in the introduction.
Sagarin rates the UH / Texas Tech game as a neutral field game. Down in the predictions section, Sagarin projects Texas Tech to be a 1.99 point favorite with a 56% of winning the game.
I assumed that since the game is played at NRG, UH could be considered the home team. Sagarin calculates the home field advantage to be 2.37 points (see top of ratings above Alabama). If UH gets the 2.37 point home field advantage, UH should beat Texas Tech.
I believe home field advantage is baked into the cake with those numbers.
How did you get 11-1 though?!?
The UH / Texas Tech game is clearly marked with an “n” for neutral field game. Giving UH the 2.37 point home field advantage flips the game to a UH win.
To come up with 11-1, I just went through UH’s schedule and applied the following formula:
[Home team rating] + [Home field advantage] - [Visitor rating] = Home team margin of victory (loss)
The only game where UH doesn’t have a positive point margin is the Tulsa game, hence an 11-1 record. Sagarin Ratings really aren’t that difficult.
Talk about an eye chart…
Got it. I see how you calculated it.