Too Early Big 12 Deep Dive (26-27 season)

[pesik]

Big 12 preview:
Had a little free time so decided to put this together to kill some offseason boredom. a look at our competitors next season

Preseason Rankings (as of today- it could shift a lot especially Tech and BYU)

Rank	Team	'25 standing
1	Arizona	1
2	Kansas	3
3	Houston	2
4	Iowa State	3
5	TCU	6
6	BYU	7
7	Texas Tech	3
8	West Virginia	7
9	Baylor	13
10	Colorado	11
11	Oklahoma State	13
12	Arizona State	11
13	Cincinnati	7
14	UCF	7
15	Utah	16
16	Kansas State	15

Early thoughts- the bottom got better and the top isnt as good, should be a chaotic season, i could make a case why every team in the conference will finish top half in the league

Preseason All Big 12 team

First Team	Team
Caleb Holt	Arizona
Motiejus Krivas	Arizona
Robert Wright III	BYU
Tyran Stokes	Kansas
Bruce Branch	BYU
Second Team
Paulius Murauskas	Arizona State
Joseph Tugler	Houston
Killyan Toure	Iowa State
Xavier Edmonds	TCU
Finley Bizjack	West Virginia

POY/FOY- Stokes
DPOY - Tugler or Toure

Roster breakdown and thoughts below, in batches of 2-3 teams.

Disclaimers: If a player has #N/A next to their name, it means they averaged fewer than 2 PPG, were a sub-Top 100 four-star recruit, were a redshirt, or were an unheralded international addition.

Also, in the 3P Volume column, some values may appear as numbers like 49688. This happened because the volume was so low that Excel mistakenly formatted it as a date. Fixing it just wasn’t worth the effort for the five people who will actually read this lol. and Missing games was counted as 0/40 mins, so missing games badly impacted your mins%

Arizona: They are stacked in every position group but power forward, their is no power forward on roster. Honest guess they will picked up some 6’9 euro shooter from somewhere before the offseason ends, they have money to spend and where in the Milan sweepstakes.

Arizona State: Heavy WCC influence, 1st year head coach of a legendary HC. Starting lineup honestly isnt that bad. but the Depth falls off really fast in regards to “known” quality.

Baylor: Surprisingly decent roster, based on perception and lost players youd think theyd be in for another bad year, but this looks like a competitive roster. a bit weak the 5 tho

BYU: 1 through 4 looks really good, there’s not a center on roster. adding the context the Keita was the toughness of BYU. as is lacks size and toughness. if they pick up some 7foot Russian like krivas, theyll shoot up my rankings

Cincinati: @justinhub2003 Deep team but lacks and real star power. also no real shooters on roster. but new coach is a winner

Colorado: Objectively the worst roster in the big 12, but on paper looks far better than their roster entering last season, their coach knows how to win with less

Iowa state: @RezClone theirs a strong belef in the break out of Toure, coach is known to be a winner. someone somewhere will break out. but preseason wise not alot of high major points on roster

Houston: way less experienced than the traditional Houston team within the Sampson system. need breakout from certain players to reach the typical standard of the program.

Kansas: a really young team but heavy star power at the top. Self is a hall of fame coach that will find a way to make it work

Kstate: My predicted worst team, 2nd chance U but with shooters, the stats of their players arent particularly good, but if you know the lore of their players , half of them were projected draft picks by someone at some point in their careers (Schutt, Kostic and Abraham), all struggled in breaking into rotations, will they shine is spotlight positions

Oklahoma st: Really deep team, and coach is now established , but no clear stars

TCU: only major loss from their tournament team last year was punch, but replacing his stats arent that crazy (only 14pts 7rbs), and the backup PF was really good in Edmonds

Texas Tech: insanely thin roster, if not for coaches reputation this likely would have been a bottom 4 roster, as is today. but still have 7 scholarships to give and have crazy NIL, gut feeling they have some international players in the draft that they are going through the process that they already have in hook. they dont even have a viable center on roster right now

UCF: a very UCF roster, a bunch of unknown guys but all have solid stats from lower conferences, 3pt percentages team wide is pretty poor

Utah: Year 2 of NBA coach, going really international with the roster. the PG is a notable international player. international players are unknown, coach is still relatively unknown. but their is enough in here to be a competitive roster

West Virgina: is a solid team top to bottom, coach over-exceed year 1. lacks superstas but this is a team you could win with.

[RezClone]

@pesik

@RezClone there’s a strong belief in the breakout of Toure, coach is known to be a winner.

@pesik

someone somewhere will break out.

[Fbtxcoog]

I guess we have to give Arizona the benefit of the doubt, but surprised to see Kansas at #2 ahead of us.

On paper…Is next years Kansas team even better than this past season?

Stokes is the #1 player, but im not seeing that he will be anything like AJ for BYU. I did not see that level of talent.

The freshman PG is 6’1. Rated high.

Im not going to be worried about 2 freshman starting no matter how high they are ranked without any veteran presence to balance it out. We saw how that went with us and we brought back 3 vets with our freshmen.

Kansas has a big transfer center from a mid major that played worse comp than Kent State and Gillespie. Gillespie is more proven than he is and you were talking like Gillespie was a huge question mark on the other posts. So this guy has to be considered lower than Gillespie.

So it just seems like you are giving these high ranked Kansas freshman recruits a lot more credit than you should.

[pesik]

To address some of the Kansas points:

• coach creditability was added in to the equation, i noted Colorado has the worst roster in the big 12 but still have them ranked over 6 big 12 team. Bill self is a hall of fame winner

• if we are adding the context that Darryn Peterson played limited minutes and missed games, i do think their team next year is better than last year - on paper i dont even think its close

this was their roster entering last year from preview i made (where Peterson didnt play the full season)

roster coming in this year

• Preseason comp to preseason comp, their team this year looks better coming in…
  Last years team had no real bench threats… their bench this year is extremely competitive

• Gillespie point: Context matters…

  • the CAA is ranked higher than the MAC, it wasnt worse competition
  • the nuance of still matter reeves is 7’2, you can play bully ball in the big 12 at 7’2. the nuance with gillipse is that he was 6’8 230lbs and in the mac he had height and strength advantage, 6’8 230lb isnt a size advantage in the big 12… it doesnt relate to this convo as 7’2 is still a size advantage in the big 12
  • kansas doesnt need him to be good, it will be the stokes show, theyll happily take 4pt 6rbs from him

[RWcoog (Coach Russell)]

Kansas essentially loses EVERYONE. A complete roster and culture reset so I am not picking them to win anything until I see them on the court. I see a few good d transfers, not sure any will be great. They seem to be dependent on a couple freshmen having very good seasons. I always wait to see with freshmen, even Stokes.

I will wait and see with the Arizona roster overhaul. They lost everyone that was their identity last season. They have a couple nice pieces in their front court but greater roles for them will be a test and they will need Freshmen to be big.

[Fbtxcoog]

@pesik

Gillespie point: Context matters…

• the CAA is ranked higher than the MAC, it wasnt worse competition
• the nuance of still matter reeves is 7’2, you can play bully ball in the big 12 at 7’2. the nuance with gillipse is that he was 6’8 230lbs and in the mac he had height and strength advantage, 6’8 230lb isnt a size advantage in the big 12… it doesnt relate to this convo as 7’2 is still a size advantage in the big 12
• kansas doesnt need him to be good, it will be the stokes show, theyll happily take 4pt 6rbs from him

Hmmm. OK…So Diane is 7’1 (one point from a 5 Star) probably be around 280. How does that translate?

So just looking at the front court UH vs Kansas…based on your logic, we should have the edge. Diane 7’1 vs big unknown 7’2 mid major guy…im leaning Diane. Tugler vs Dawes. But we also have Gillespie in the rotation.

Front court. You are giving a lot of love to the 2 Kansas freshman and assume they play up to their 5 star rating. Cool.

Im still giving us the edge. I watched the games and Mercy and Chase has experience. Not a lot of minutes, but the minutes they played were not a bunch of mop up minutes. It was enough to see that they could ball. Just had vets in front of them. (Sharp…Uzan)

We have 2 transfer guards coming in. Looking at Sampson’s recent track record with guards…how can we say he is going to miss? We can say we are disappointed with how our season went, but Uzan and Sharp, who were not highly rated, are going PRO. I have to assume that these transfer guards, who most likely have more physical talent than Uzan and Sharp, are going to come through and match what 2 true freshmen can.

As far as guard play…our defense has made much better proven talent at guard and wing look very average. So what’s the chances these 2 true freshman will go off against us when there are players that are currently in the league that could not.

[pesik]

You are taking nuanced conversations and removing nuances from it

• With Gillespie it just wasnt just “conference”…
• now with arafane it just wasnt “size”. I’ve had many conversation about Arafan… the point of contention was “experience”
  true freshmen traditional centers normally do not have big year 1 impact, and are the position group that is the slowest to adapt to D1. Reeves himself is a good example of this as he was a poor freshmen and good senior (will be 5th year)

These are holistic conversation about looking at the full picture. I wasnt about arguing 1 point

2nd point) my reason for liking kansas has noting to do with reeves in the post you responded to i said

@pesik

theyll happily take 4pt 6rbs from him

2. they also have Mbiya, he was buried in the depth chart behind bidunga last year, but he was a starter in the highest level of the Euro league … he is 7ft with a 7’9!!! wingspan now familiar with college
3. they have adkins a top 60 4star recruit c

other points:
Stokes is the unquestioned #1 recruit, why cant we put expectations on him??

• its so odd to me that you guys were ready to crown Arafan as the next coming who was only the #16 recruit at the time we had those debates, that has since fallen to #27… but the unquestioned #1 recruit “is just a freshmen”

Reliant on Freshmen - REMOVE THE FRESHEN - its still a pretty good team
non-freshmen starting line up

• Leroy Blyden Jr. 6-1 16pts - Toledo
• Kohl Rosario 6-6 4pts - top 75 recruit entering 2nd year - our guys can break out but not theirs?
• Dennis Parker, Jr. 6-6 18pts - Radford
• Keanu Dawes 6-9 13pts 9Rbs - Utah
• Christian Reeves 7-2 11pts 8rbs - Charleston

why are we acting like this is a terrible line up- that is reliant on fresheman

• premeptively responding to the mid major comment- it was never about conference but style transfer- 6’8 bully ball works in the MAC it doesnt work in high major

“Sampson’s recent track record” - we arent the only one with a legendary coach-- kansas has bill self

[Kyle_Be_Coogin (Kyle)]

@pesik

6’8 230lb isnt a size advantage in the big 12…

While this is true… a player can still be a bully at this size in the Big 12… see J’Wan Roberts.

From what I’ve seen seems like Gillespie can bully similar in the paint AND stretch the floor to the perimeter… I’m excited to see him play!

[Hill]

Fun Fact. CKS and Bill Self have competed in the same conference 6 times. The results

[IowaCoog (Tom Lidiak)]

I’ve heard that Stokes could be a cancer. Time will tell.

[Kyle_Be_Coogin (Kyle)]

@Fbtxcoog

I have to assume that these transfer guards, who most likely have more physical talent than Uzan and Sharp,

You’ll have to explain this to me because Uzan & $harp were both physically talented guards…

Uzan has size and length and $harp might’ve been the strongest guard in the B12 last season…

[pesik]

i havent heard cancer b4, but he is a well documented bully/ trash talker… he doesnt just try to beat you, he wants to embaraas you… he is a skilled version of draymond green

[Kyle_Be_Coogin (Kyle)]

@pesik

he is a skilled version of draymond green

Draymond is very skilled… I don’t follow what you mean here…?

[pesik]

@RWcoog

I will wait and see with the Arizona roster overhaul. They lost everyone that was their identity last season. They have a couple nice pieces in their front court but greater roles for them will be a test and they will need Freshmen to be big.

Arizona i feel you are sellng a but short

they dont have a power forward on roster and i stilll feel confident that they will be top 3 in the confernce

on 3 pillars

• Krivas will arguably be the best center in the country next year
• elite perimeter defender
  • caleb holt is a elite defender, -
  • Ivan Kharchenkov is a elite defender
  • and tho not “elite” derek dixon is a 6’5 pg who is a plus defender
• they way we have a system that no matter who is on roster we will always have good defense… arizona (and gonzaga - same system) have a system that will always produce on offense

im confident in them even with just what they have

they still need a power forward and bad if they want to compete for a title, but Arizona regularly recruits international… power forwards are what they have in over abundance internationally… im sure in a month we’ll hear they signed some 6’9 croatian who is 24 and a major player from a euro league team lol or something like that

[pesik]

draymond green has never averaged more than 14pts in a season, majority of his career less than 10…
stokes will likely surpass that as a rookie

[Fbtxcoog]

Speed and quickness. ability to get to the rack. Athleticism.

Sharp used what he has and made the most of it with technique. But as far as jumping ability and quickness to get his shot off, he improvised.

Hadnot, Thomas and even Mercy will be better than both at taking their man off the dribble and penetrating to cause defensive issues.

Sampson also hinted at this skill. He did not do the comparison like i did, but I understood that was something he was looking for in these new transfers.

[Kyle_Be_Coogin (Kyle)]

His senior season he averaged 16.2 pts… but I see what you mean… as a high volume scorer…

[RezClone]

@pesik

These are holistic conversation about looking at the full picture.

Very minor detail but just for the sake of accuracy, Jackson Kiss will no longer be with the Cyclones, he flipped to UNLV for mutual reasons. Just FYI.

Fine writeup tho and accurate. Credit on the accuracy of the starting lineup projection and word on the internal value within the program placed on Toure. He is definitely an Otzelberger guy and that has remained constant since day 1 on campus. Same with Batemon and Buchanan.

There are contributing Cyclones who Otzelberger likes and they are in the hard-earned mix on more of a day-to-day basis. Then, occasionally, there are TJ guys who he gloms onto for his own reasons and will never give up on and have his undying trust. It varies, but those 3 guys are the only ones I’d give that distinction to on this team right now.

Sometimes, that aligns with fans’ personal evaluations, including myself. Other times, it does not. But you’re gonna want that TJ seal of approval because he gives you the keys to the program and kind of a special status. Everyone else kind of has to re-earn their role daily, even rep to rep. (most of it is their work habits, energy on a consistent basis, off the court character, mental toughness…stuff like that.)

Guys like Tamin and Bob Jones and Nate Heise had it. Others like Keshon, Curt Jones, Hasan Ward and even Jefferson and Momcilovic, did not. And I think that’d surprise some people.

The baseline expectations are high as a rule of thumb in this program, it’s not for everyone. TJ himself says the pool for players he’d even give a look to is very small for that reason. So that’s not to say they were lazy or bad teammates by any means, far from it.

Just that there’s levels to this s*** and that’s what TJ really preaches and holds ppl accountable to. Not so much what’s gonna show up on paper, or even more generally w/ respect to in-game performance.

I would not be surprised at all if this is 100% Toure’s team. @IowaCoog

[Kyle_Be_Coogin (Kyle)]

I love Toure!

I would’ve taken that dude here in The H in a heartbeat!

[RezClone]

@Kyle_Be_Coogin

I love Toure!

I would’ve taken that dude here in The H in a heartbeat!

I know you do! You’ve been consistent on that. His defense is somehow consistently overlooked. He’s a game wrecker.

He’s also long and really good going downhill and around the rim. Has an endless gas tank, never gets tired. Not flashy, but deceptively fast and strong. Makes the right play. Sort of like a peak Jr Uzan.

It’s just that ugly shot motion which throws ppl off, and I get that. He can make shots tho, he just had a big slump and was asked to play the wing which is NOT his spot. Sound familiar?