I don’t think it is going hot, I think Russia was just trying to raise oil prices. With that in mind shouldn’t Russia and Texas do the professional wrestling thing where we threaten to invade Russia and they threaten to invade Texas (good f’n luck Ivan, you might take Beaumont). We could keep oil prices high forever.
Assuming Russia does indeed invade with full force, I am guessing Russia wins the conventional war after a bloody battle in a matter of weeks.
The only “wildcard” is if some bunch of Ukrainians decide to then mount a plain clothes insurgency/guerrilla campaign. As I’m sure you observed in places like Afghanistan…wars such as those can drag on for many, MANY years.
That’s why I refrain from making any long-term predictions about these things.
putin already won. His objective was for Ukraine to not get into NATO. All of the Europeans and American leaders had the following talk with vladimir.
“We hear you loud and clear Vladimir. We won’t let Ukraine into NATO…what about a discount on gas and caviar maybe?”
“vladimir we need more gas an crude oil from you. Can you make it happen? Oh I almost forgot add a few rubbles and a couple of babushkas too”
Not a problem ice cream man. Just tell your son to stop calling me in the middle of the night for more vodka.