Or maybe they just trusted those in charge.
Perhaps
Overall, this tragedy was just a failure in all fronts
Infrastructure, local and federal politics, financing, geography, ignorance, and just bad luck unfortunately⊠itâs all of it
This wasnât possible. They had watches in place the evening before, but it wouldnât make sense to pull kids out of camps at that point. The warnings started at 1:00 am, and thatâs when the camps and RV parks should have taken action. Some did, and others didnât.
You seem to be looking at this like it was an approaching hurricane that has several days of advance warning. It wasnât anything like that. They had more warning than a tornado, but way less than a hurricane.
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Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but given this took place around the time of simultaneous storms, I would think maybe 1 adult wouldâve attempted to raise concern prior to the main warning the night of
But I guess consensus suggests these floods were absolutely spontaneous and unexpected regardless of the activity in the area
You mean like a perfect storm? Where have I heard that before, and got mocked for it?
Parents didnât really have days to react, unless you think the NWS potential
statement was the key moment for parents and camp admins to start executing
their emergency plans. The WATCH assessment didnât come until 1:18pm on Thursday afternoon. And the WARNING not until 1am the morning of the flash flood.
Iâd like to know if these camps start to execute their emergency evacuation plans on a watch or a warning alert and how long they think it should take to execute their plans. I read a Mystic coordinator was trying to start evacs at 3am and water was already very high.
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I feel like everything you say on this message board is spoken in code
I can hardly decipher about half of your arguments
maybe Iâm just not intelligent enough
I feel like you do that a lot as well. Though it is very easy on message boards for the context to get lost amongst the posts, sometimes we could all be more clear.
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If thatâs accurate, itâs absolutely negligent. That warning around 1:00 am meant that flooding was imminent. Waiting for something more dire when you have a couple hundred kids literally sleeping on the river doesnât make any sense.
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JeeezuzâŠCamp Mystic appealed and got areas of their camp out of the 100 year flood planeâŠ
Not defending the coordinator at all, but my assumption in that situation is that youâre deep down hoping for the absolute best (not expecting things to get dire)
I get that thereâs an element of human nature that has to be overcome, because hope is not a plan.
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Abundance.Of.Caution.
Put your own life on the line if you want⊠but when youâre watching out for kids⊠see above.
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They should put that camp owner on trial.
I just took a look at these removals (available online through FEMAâs Map Service Center: FEMA Flood Map Service Center | Welcome!).
I looked up just one LOMA (Letter of Map Amendment) document:
It shows that a structure (Bldg 13) was removed from the floodplain due to its elevation above the 100-yr floodplain elevation. The LOMA shows that the ground adjacent to the structure was 5â above the 100-yr floodplain. It also says that the structure was revised to Zone X shaded, which means it was still considered to be in the 500-yr floodplain. Probably most importantly, is the note âPORTIONS REMAIN IN THE FLOODWAYâ. The Floodway is the deepest and fastest part of the floodplainâŠthe most destructive.
I made a quick graphic, using the elevations shown in the LOMA, and extrapolating the July 4 flood elevation from USGS gage data downstream. This is VERY approximate, but gives an idea of the elevations/depths weâre talking about. If my numbers are anywhere near correct, there would have been somewhere on the order of 6â of high-velocity flood waters tearing through that cabin.
The problematic part, and probably the âlesson learnedâ here â the location of the cabins in the floodway. Hindsight is 20/20âŠand I donât have the info to know what that structure is or when it was built. But generally itâs not a FEMA issue; they only create the maps and document revisions. The regulation of building permits in the floodplain is a LOCAL matter â Kerr County in this case. If this building was built before the initial floodplain maps, or before floodplain regulations were adopted locally, then Kerr County wouldnât have had the opportunity to weigh in on it. At that point itâs the Ownerâs riskâŠand the Owner may or may not have understood that risk. From what Iâve read, Dick Eastland was aware of flood risks and respected the power of the Guadalupe, but in this case, I think everyone underestimated the possibilities. Probably felt like these structures 20â above the Guadalupe were âsafeâ. But this was a record flood in HuntâŠnever seen before. When it hasnât been seen, most of us think tend to think it canât happen. For Houston folks, our relevant comparison is TS Allison in 2001âŠand then Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Both were âonce in a lifetimeâ events. I think we know enough now to say that there are even bigger storms lurking out there.
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This is where we (humans) are so arrogant and short-sighted. How far back does the record-keeping go on the water levels at Hunt, Tx? Maybe 100 or 150 years? This flood was a known record by about 10 inches, so it was hardly inconceivable that a flood like this could happen.
I suspect that Eastland thought he had it under control until he realized this one was different, at which point it was obviously too late.
The successful appeals to have certain buildings removed from the FEMA floodplain tells me two things:
- The owner really wanted to build more and save money on insurance
- The owner clearly knew these buildings were in a âdanger zoneâ
This article gives a pretty good recap of how the NWS was staffed and interacting with local officials as the flood developed. It reinforces my belief that the county and local leaders were the primary failure point.
Texas NWS office had no warning coordination meteorologist during the flood. Did it make a difference?
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Flooding can certainly occur outside of FEMAâs 100 year flood plain. It happens whenever the circumstances are extraordinary such as what occurred in the Texas hill country last week. It is what it is.
[NOTE: Thereâs also a 500 year flood plain elevation which is less talked about.]
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Sure they can. But a significant number of the people who died in this flood were INSIDE the 100 year flood plain (or right on the edge) and in clearly dangerous areas, especially given their ages and the total lack of a warning system. It didnât have to be that way.
And these flood zones in river valleys that flash flood are far more dangerous than a 100 year flood plain in a Houston suburb. Frankly, itâs something of a miracle that anyone who went into those waters survived.
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Must have been the budget cuts.
Must have been thoughts
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