This wasn’t possible. They had watches in place the evening before, but it wouldn’t make sense to pull kids out of camps at that point. The warnings started at 1:00 am, and that’s when the camps and RV parks should have taken action. Some did, and others didn’t.
You seem to be looking at this like it was an approaching hurricane that has several days of advance warning. It wasn’t anything like that. They had more warning than a tornado, but way less than a hurricane.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but given this took place around the time of simultaneous storms, I would think maybe 1 adult would’ve attempted to raise concern prior to the main warning the night of
But I guess consensus suggests these floods were absolutely spontaneous and unexpected regardless of the activity in the area
You mean like a perfect storm? Where have I heard that before, and got mocked for it?
Parents didn’t really have days to react, unless you think the NWS potential
statement was the key moment for parents and camp admins to start executing
their emergency plans. The WATCH assessment didn’t come until 1:18pm on Thursday afternoon. And the WARNING not until 1am the morning of the flash flood.
I’d like to know if these camps start to execute their emergency evacuation plans on a watch or a warning alert and how long they think it should take to execute their plans. I read a Mystic coordinator was trying to start evacs at 3am and water was already very high.
I feel like everything you say on this message board is spoken in code
I can hardly decipher about half of your arguments
maybe I’m just not intelligent enough
I feel like you do that a lot as well. Though it is very easy on message boards for the context to get lost amongst the posts, sometimes we could all be more clear.
If that’s accurate, it’s absolutely negligent. That warning around 1:00 am meant that flooding was imminent. Waiting for something more dire when you have a couple hundred kids literally sleeping on the river doesn’t make any sense.
Jeeezuz…Camp Mystic appealed and got areas of their camp out of the 100 year flood plane…
Not defending the coordinator at all, but my assumption in that situation is that you’re deep down hoping for the absolute best (not expecting things to get dire)
I get that there’s an element of human nature that has to be overcome, because hope is not a plan.
Abundance.Of.Caution.
Put your own life on the line if you want… but when you’re watching out for kids… see above.
They should put that camp owner on trial.
I just took a look at these removals (available online through FEMA’s Map Service Center: FEMA Flood Map Service Center | Welcome!).
I looked up just one LOMA (Letter of Map Amendment) document:
I made a quick graphic, using the elevations shown in the LOMA, and extrapolating the July 4 flood elevation from USGS gage data downstream. This is VERY approximate, but gives an idea of the elevations/depths we’re talking about. If my numbers are anywhere near correct, there would have been somewhere on the order of 6’ of high-velocity flood waters tearing through that cabin.
This is where we (humans) are so arrogant and short-sighted. How far back does the record-keeping go on the water levels at Hunt, Tx? Maybe 100 or 150 years? This flood was a known record by about 10 inches, so it was hardly inconceivable that a flood like this could happen.
I suspect that Eastland thought he had it under control until he realized this one was different, at which point it was obviously too late.
The successful appeals to have certain buildings removed from the FEMA floodplain tells me two things:
This article gives a pretty good recap of how the NWS was staffed and interacting with local officials as the flood developed. It reinforces my belief that the county and local leaders were the primary failure point.
Texas NWS office had no warning coordination meteorologist during the flood. Did it make a difference?
Flooding can certainly occur outside of FEMA’s 100 year flood plain. It happens whenever the circumstances are extraordinary such as what occurred in the Texas hill country last week. It is what it is.
[NOTE: There’s also a 500 year flood plain elevation which is less talked about.]
Sure they can. But a significant number of the people who died in this flood were INSIDE the 100 year flood plain (or right on the edge) and in clearly dangerous areas, especially given their ages and the total lack of a warning system. It didn’t have to be that way.
And these flood zones in river valleys that flash flood are far more dangerous than a 100 year flood plain in a Houston suburb. Frankly, it’s something of a miracle that anyone who went into those waters survived.
Must have been the budget cuts.
Must have been thoughts
I just took a look at FEMA Flood Profiles for the area… 500yr BFE at Camp Mystic is approximately elevation 1,850’. Right at my “guesstimate” of the July 4 flood elevation.
FEMA’s 500yr Flood Elevation at the Hunt USGS Gage is 1,760’. The High Water Mark measured by USGS after July 4 is 1,760.3’ (37.5’ flood depth + 1,722.8’ elevation at bottom of gage).
That flood was right at the 500-yr elevation based on FEMA’s models. 500-yr storm is more accurately described as a 0.2% annual chance storm event. Low probability, but not zero.
Question everyone faces is, what is an acceptable risk? 1% annual chance? 0.2%? Do we design and build for even less frequent storms, like the 1000yr storm (0.1% annual chance)? The 100yr storm event is typically used as the design event in most places… is it enough?
Good stuff there, I appreciate the insight. I agree the failure was at the local (County) level for Camp Mystic. I hope they make meaningful changes to prevent this from happening again.
And I hope other communities across Texas and the US are looking at their own emergency action plans and notification systems. We’re seeing these catastrophic floods across the country at a pace I don’t recall hearing about in years past. I really do believe the warming climate contributes to the more intense rains and higher overall rainfall depths experienced across the country.
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