What Happens When Sampson Allows Teams to Score Above 64

We all know that Sampson wins with Killer Defense.

Indeed when an opponent scores below 64 Sampson wins over 95% of such games. We saw that in the Troy game. They had 11 at the half. The game was way over at halftime.

So what happens when an opponent scores more than 64, when they effectively beat Sampson’s defense?

I looked back at our last 25 games where the opponent scored over 64. Covers this season and the past 3 seasons.

Sampson is 16-9 in such games. A 64% winning rate.

A nice winning % for sure. But not 95%.

Anyone can analyze this and draw their own conclusions. My conclusion is this is the #1 reason we lose in March Madness. And,yes, I know that both Duke and Villanova have beaten us in March Madness while scoring below 64. But others(Miami, Baylor et al) scored above 64.

Simply put this current group has great scoring potential. And I want to go to San Antonio next Spring and see UH take home a National Title.

Improving our scoring offers the best odds to achieve that.

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Improve the defense and hold everyone under 55.

Offensive problems solved! :slightly_smiling_face:

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We lost to Duke because we lost the heart and soul of our team when Shead injured his ankle. We lost to Miami and Baylor because they shot “lights out” and overwhelmed our defense. We lost another game because we had dead legs after chasing a much higher rated team two days prior. Sh*t happens and sometimes, it happens to us.

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I would add that Sampson doesn’t really win or lose games. He guides the team and tries to put them in a position to win.

We are a guard-heavy attack squad. There are more guards to recruit from and Houston historically isn’t a national destination for big guys known for scoring. What would be the answer? Tuggler and Juwan and Javier are limited in their offense, especially against big teams with strong defense. We have some size coming in but our offense goes through guard play. And that means they have to hit 3-pointers. And Lord knows we shoot our share. You can change some things but Sharp and LJ will decide how far we go.

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TA is going to be HUGE this March in my opinion as well as those 2 guys.

TA still looks a little tentative to explode up on dunks, though… against Troy he had a play where he got to the bucket, pump faked and had a wide open dunk and then missed the layup but got fouled…

YOU GOTTA DUNK THAT SH1T!!!

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I looked all the way back to 2017-2018 season.

Nothing changed. Sampson is a 64% winner when allowing over 64 points.

When his defense kills the opponent his winning % is close to 96%.

Obviously Sampson will continue with this approach. As he should.

To win March Madness we need a team that also can score 80 when required. And we already have games this season where we did so.

We gave up more than 64 in 2 of our last 3 games.

We went 1-1. And it took virtual miracles to get the 1 win.

Tech had 41 at the half. Essentially they were almost there. Had already whipped Sampson’s defense.

Sampson has 6 games this season with the opponent scoring above 64.

He is 2-4 in such games. A 1 point win and a 2OT win. He could be 0-6.

He is a tremendous winner. But this weakness always shows up during March Madness. He simply lacks top notch scoring.

The huge emphasis on Defense seems to lead to the injuries. Worn out legs.

Reporters never ask about this. Never. It should be honestly discussed.

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Was talking to my son on the way tonight about Arceneau being a huge part of this team.
I was really surprised he was not in the game late when we needed a big shot because I think he is one of the few players who can create shots.

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So, are you going to go to the next coaches show and point this out to him? We lost by one in OT. It was a hard fought game. It’s all I can ask of our team. I’m disappointed we lost but it happens.

Just had 3 Q1 games, 2 on the road 1 at home. Gladly take a 2-1 there. On to the next game.

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I think someone in the media should ask why the ball wasn’t in Cryer’s hand on last possession… simple question, just interested in the answer … Love CKS , just be interested in his thoughts on it …

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Agree that Cryer should have taken the last shot.

If fouled he is a killer on the FT line.

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Here’s the official breakdown (before L to Tech)

First column is 2024/25
2nd one in blue is CKS Era at Houston

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It’s that 70-89 range we have to avoid. Either let it roll or lock it down - nothing in the middle. :laughing:

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if they score number 70, let em hit til they get to about 87

This tells me we’re not great in OT games…

Sampson answered this during his post-game press conference. He said he thought J’wan could get to the bucket and score or get to the FT line. I question why it would be in the game plan to get J’Wan to the FT line, but that’s what he said. J’Wan did get to the bucket and got fouled at the end of regulation, but he didn’t get the call from that pathetic officiating crew. At the end of OT, he got a little too fancy and traveled on his spin move. J’Wan doesn’t have a problem getting to his spot, but between terrible officials and him not having his usual touch, it didn’t work. On to the next one.

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Great data by Cougar Guardian!:basketball:

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4-1 when allowing 90-99 is…strange.