But they don’t…the schools minus UT and OU are more on par with the TV ratings for the top 4 in the AAC.
If previous power conference status was taken out (because the Big 12 is not anymore) and you had these 2 options, which would you take
Conference A:
Second and third tier public schools in very small markets or states
A blueblood in basketball that is one of the worst Division 1 football programs.
2 Texas religious schools, one in a large market. The other is controversial but has had recent success.
Conference B
Anchored by 4 huge public schools in huge markets…albeit city schools but with great growth potential and projected to grow even more
A middle tier of more large public schools in big cities
A military academy whose game vs Army is a highlight in the college football season
A small religious school that happens to play in the same exact metro as the one in Conference A
Two smaller private schools that are evident to be the weakest “value” out of all of the teams in the two conferences.
The TV ratings for Conference A (minus thevschools that left) is comparable to Conference B.
Yet to see if the TV ratings for Conference A drop for the 2021 or 2022 season.
I don’t know how this shakes out, but it could cut the other way. The AAC does well by producing 12-win teams that get national attention. With UT and especially OU out of the way, I8 schools are more likely to do the same and could benefit from that. I’m not sure how many fans were watching K-State vs TCU because they were in the same conference as UT and OU. Could be a low number.
…but the money doesn’t stop. Their contract will be renegotiated, just like the Big East’s. I would rather be with the Irate 8, than in an AAC without Cincy and possibly a few others.
The deal up to 2025 won’t be renegotiated. There’s no provision. You’re right that there is no renewal option after that, but the remaining four years on that contract are worth more than the entirety of our TV contract. To say nothing of exit penalties, basketball tourney points, etc.
That’s not a reason for AAC schools to leave for the Big 12 because they’re not going to see much of that money, but it is a reason for the Irate 8 to stay put. It’s just a ton of money to walk away from, and it’s enough to tide you over if your post-2025 contract is lackluster.
But we don’t know that. Even the AAC contract had provisions to reduce the contract IF tier A programs left.
For the Big 12, the majority of the value left.
Once they officially stop participating in the Big12, the contract for the remainder till 2025 will be renegotiated down to a figure comparable to the AAC.
Factor in NO renewal option and we would be C-R-A-Z-Y to leave the secure AAC for that mess.
Again without NO renewal past 2025…if that changes then we have the right to reconsider
No, it won’t. There is no mechanism for ESPN and Fox to renegotiate the contract. That clause we have that allows ESPN to do that is not in their contract. There was a report that it might be, but subsequent reports (including from the same source, CBS Sports) clarified that it isn’t:
As long the Big 12 remains viable, ESPN and Fox cannot reduce the conference’s rights fees under the current contract.
A top flight volleyball recruit took an unofficial visit to UH. The VB coach pulled out all the stops including turning on the lights at Fertitta and said “this is where you will play”. She was impressed but she’s got the diva strain already.
Recently she went on an official to USC. It was with 10 prospects. When they showed her the place they play, which had been renovated a couple of years ago, she said to her parents that UH’s campus and facilities were much nicer than USC
Existing contracts can be amended by both parties. Either the current big 12 or aac contract can be amended for the short term until a new long term deal can be put in place.
My hunch about what is going on behind the scenes is a bunch of back and forth between two deals. One is an amended AAC contract to incentivize enough big 12 schools to the AAC to kill the big 12 (ESPN preference)
The other deal is being worked on by the remaining big 12 to add 2-4 schools. (The big 12 remnants preference). Big 12 schools keep exit fee $ and yearly payouts through end of the contract. In this scenario, ESPN is likely threatening the remaining schools with hellfire & brimstone once their contract is up. OKST, TT, KU etc will have to decide if the short term money is worth the long term animosity with ESPN.
Lots of phone calls going on right now in the battle of the deals.
My point is someone will pick up the B12 tv contract. The AAC deal is only there because ESPN had right of refusal and had to match NBC’s offer or lose the AAC.
A network will want to pick up the Irate 8 plus whatever AAC schools that might defect. It won’t be for $37M/school/year, but there are valuable properties and brands left in the B12.
It is for sure a gamble, but one that has significant short term benefits and probable long term gains.
I would rather play OkSt, Tech, TCU, KSt, Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa St than SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Temple, USF, and ECU. Any day and every day.
So you have mob boss named ESPN that wants to take out the BIG12 so they don’t pay exit fees. You have the PAC12 that could benefit from some of these schools. I don’t see the BIG12 surviving and would any of the remaining 8 wait to see if the bet pays off? What if ESPN tells ACC and SEC not to schedule them going forward? These guys can either get on a life raft or go down like the Titanic. Some are doomed anyway.
Agree with you Cary. This is a no brainer. This is why the rodent is trying its best to exterminate it.
pearland and for others I ask this question:
Why is the rodent trying everything it can to exterminate the small12?
If the rodent did not care we would not hear any noise so what gives?
Money? The rodent does not want to pay the money?
Is the rodent hurting financially?
No so what else could it be?
The rodent wants to go to four P’S and even less if it can achieve it. The end game is AAA college football feeding the nfl. Keeping the G5’s as the AA and making them think they will get a spot in the newly redesigned rodent’s cfp.
Anything that further any local rivalries generates a ton of interest. Playing against our old SWC foes is 100% more sellable than playing AAC schools. The utau pimp wants to keep controlling this geographical area. Any positive noise, fans interest in its territory is a minus for the utau pimp. The utau pimp has not been relevant for years and will never be in the SEC. A powerful UH beating the likes of tcu, teetech and others is much more tangible than dominating the AAC.