That’s a site that compiles all of the projected brackets and creates a composite seeding. They re-run the numbers every day.
As of this morning, Houston is a 7 seed.
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Wow! I’m shocked at how many brackets have us as a 10 seed and even one that has us as an 11 seed. What the heck!
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I’m shocked that it is February 2018 and we’re shocked that people are only putting us as 11 seeds. I’m dreaming.
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Haha! Me too!
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I was taking a closer looks at the CBS bracket to figure out how we could still be only a 9 seed. Only one team behind us has a longer winning streak and none of the seeds 3 through 8 have as good a record as us against tier 1 teams. The only thing standing out, is that we are the ONLY team in the top 9 seeds that has a single tier 4 loss.
According to this “expert” (the RPI guy), one tier 4 loss outweighs AT LEAST four tier 1 wins because even being 2-3 against tier 1 is still better than 1/3rd of the teams ranked ahead of us. It’s silly enough that I tweeted him about it.
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The consensus bracket is pretty good. Over the last 5 years, only 6 individuals have done better than the consensus on average:
Bracketville - has us a 6 seed in Dallas
SyracuseFan7 - has us a 5 seed
Jabes Blog - not released yet
Warren Nolan - not released yet
Wild Bill - has us a 7 seed in Nashville
Inside the Hall - will update today, last bracket on Feb 13 before big wins had us an 11 seed
Historical seed performance.
8-9 game is a toss up. 8 seed wins 53% of those games.
Overall, 8 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 10.5% of the time. 9 seeds make it 4.5% of the time. This is not the line we want to be on.
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7 seeds beat 10 seeds 61% of the time.
7 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 18.5% of the time.
10 seeds make the sweet 16 about 17% of the time (they have a better record vs the 2 seed than does the seven)
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6 seeds beat 11 seeds about 64% of the time
6 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 33% of the time
11 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 13% of the time
Notice the big jump in Sweet 16 appearances going from 7 to 6.
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5 seeds beat 12 seeds 67% of the time.
5 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 32.5% of the time.
12 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 13% of the time.
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4 seeds beat 13 seeds about 81% of the time.
4 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 49% of the time.
13 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 4.5% of the time.
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Sweet 16 chances by seed
4 = 49%
5 = 32.5%
6 = 33%
7 = 18.5%
8 = 10.5%
9 = 4.5%
10 = 17%
11 = 13%
12 = 13%
13 = 4.5%
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Where’d you get those percentages Red?
That’s like finding out the answers to a test but picking something different because you disagree with the teacher.
That made me almost choke on my coffee. Good one.
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Houston now on the 6 line at BracketMatrix:
Note: the committee has a history of seeding American teams worse than the BracketMatrix consensus:
2014
Louisville - 4 instead of 3
Cincy - 5 instead of 4
UConn - 7 instead of 5
SMU - out instead of 11
2015
SMU - 6 instead of 5
Temple - out instead of 11
2016
UConn - 9 instead of 8
2017
SMU - 6 instead of 5
The only American teams ever given more credit by the committee than by BracketMatrix:
2015 - Cincy got an 8 instead of a 9
2016 - Cincy got 9 instead of 10
2016 - Temple got in instead of NIT
2016 - Tulsa got in instead of NIT
Basically, take our BracketMatrix seed and add 1.
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Sign us up!
If we continue to play well the balance of the conference schedule and the AAC tournament, our seeding will improve as others ahead of us are likely to fall. A 27-5 or 26-6 record would be hard to ignore.
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vs Texas…you forgot to mention that little tidbit. Best bracket yet.
in dallas vs the short horns would be the best way to go back to the tourney.
next round vs clemson would be tough but there would be plenty of coogs in the house if we get the dallas location.
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As much as I would love to stomp tu into oblivion, we better bring our outside shooting touch if we play them. With our lack of size, we won’t be getting many shots up in the paint against Mo Bamba.
I’d like to see any teams big man gaurd Devin Davis.
Fox has us as a #6 facing Buffalo in the first round.
Fact is tu should NOT be in the tournament !!
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I have 3 comments.
It is a breath of fresh air, to once again be having these discussions about seeding. Been a long time coming.
I hope the players are not getting caught up in our excitement, lol. They have a season to finish, and a big conference tournament.
CKS - Coach of the Year in the AAC, no doubt.
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mo bamba is a load for sure but he better be able to beat galen or rob down the floor or it won’t matter.
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