ESPN FPI has us going 9-2


(Ryon Adams) #1

#2

I like their prediction a lot better than mine. Outside of East Carolina, there’s not another “sure thing” on the schedule. 4-5 losses would not surprise me. The offensive struggles(I.e O-Line) have me feeling this way.


#3

This is a particularly bad take by Duarte. Sure, we’re nominally favored in 6 of our 7 remaining games. But FPI is a probabilistic model – it doesn’t just spit out win/loss results. FPI has us averaging a 56% win probability over the remainder of our schedule. Over 7 games, that means we should expect about 3.91 more wins, on average, because even though we’re favored, most of the games are closer to a toss-up.


#4

I don’t think JD takes a position on the likelihood of our actually going 6-1 the rest of the way. He’s just telling us what ESPN is forecasting. But like you say, we can’t really put any stock in these forecasts. It’s college football and unexpected things happen.


(Patrick) #5

Out of those projections, I’d take the Birmingham Bowl against Tennessee or the Hawaii Bowl against Hawaii.


(Cary) #6

All that really matters is the ESPN bowl projections. They dictate to the conferences the matchups that they want, and the conferences comply. We played San Diego State in a bowl last year, because ESPN wanted it.


(Mike Higdon) #7

I can’t afford another trip to Hawaii this year; but I know my bride would be up for that one. If we go the the B-ham bowl, I will be going solo.


(Ben B) #8

I think a 7-4 or 8-3 regular season is the most likely when looking at win odds that I can look up. It feels weird typing season records for 11 total games.


(PMM) #9

Clearly, they have not been witness to our offensive play calling !


#10

Just took a quick look on Traveloctiy and a Wednesday to Wednesday stay in Hawaii including room and airfare for the week of the bowl game is about $3,000. A trip to Paris at the same time is about $1,500. London is about $1,200, Rome is around $1,500, New Zealand is $2,800, and Tokyo is about $2,000. Perhaps the conference should look at setting up a bowl game in London between the AAC and ACC. Christmas in London could be a lot of fun.


#11

I am just hoping for 4-1 after Saturday…


#12

Shoot, you may be on to something here. It’d have to be before Christmas, though – wouldn’t want to compete with Premier League Boxing Day matchups. Wasn’t there also a bowl game in Tokyo? They could bring that back, too.


#13

Yea. I hope we have a better offense than we have shown so far but I don’t think we do.


#14

I don’t mind if it is in Paris.


(Dan) #15

We have street cred in Vegas and the FPI from the past two seasons. This year we have proven that we can win road games and our defense will keep us in games and win a few for us. That’s about it.


#16

Another false narrative. This simply isn’t true.


(Dustin K) #17

I wondered in Tillman had any influence on getting us to Las Vegas instead of anywhere else.


(Patrick) #18

That did help


(Cary) #19

For sure. The administration wanted a better matchup, but it wouldn’t have happened if ESPN didn’t green light it.


(Jerrycoog) #20

I don’t see 9 wins by this team either, in fact any game against a team with a pulse has me nervous.