It seems that the new tv contracts beginning in 2024 will be considerable smaller in dollar size . On surface that may diminish our chances of getting in a P5 . What are your thoughts ?
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I just have a hard time seeing us in P5. UT is hell bent on keeping us out. If UT were dying and UH was the cure. UT would choose to die. Just how it is and how it will be in the foreseeable future.
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Well I think if you compare our programs in the last 10 years, they’re failing at keeping us down and out. Its fair to say our programs are going in opposite directions.
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The Big 12-2 will fold upon the next contract. The remaining P5 conferences will then expand to 16 each. I think there are 9 spots up for grabs with Texas, OU and Kansas guaranteed to get one each. That leaves six spots for:
Houston
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Baylor
TCU
Iowa State
West Virginia
Cincinnati
BYU
Memphis
South Florida
Central Florida
I think the most likely potential landing spot is the Pac 16
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The administration at UH is more committed to the “P5” deal. At the end of the day that is what we are looking for as an athletic program. I see the conventional deals getting smaller.However, that decrease will be replaced by other means like a streaming service, or other similar more “Internet of things” product. All in, the deals should increase and schools will get more $. It is imperative that we continue in the direction we are going. In Khator and BoR I trust.
Serious question: why wouldn’t the SEC take us? With the big12 gone Texas would be ripe for the taking. The remaining 4 conferences would be greatly interested in trying to take over Texas. And if Houston is the most fertile land in Texas…
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Pac-16 seems like the most plausible landing spot. I do expect KU and Oklahoma State to end up into the SEC West.
The ACC will stop at 16 with full member Notre Dame and Cincinnati or West Virginia.
This leaves the Pac-12 needing to add 4 teams to be on part with the rest of the power conferences and to expand their viewership. I do believe in this scenario UH is set up perfectly to be added into the Pac. I could see the Pac adding K-state, Iowa State UH and either Tech or if they can look past religious affiliation, TCU.
With the only exceptions being the states of Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee the SEC does not like to have more than one team per state. This is why UH would not be added to the SEC. Houston also has a huge A&M and LSU fan base and feel secure about the City and state. Pac-16 is the power conference of choice for UH.
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If that is true that leaves one out of the current Big12. Maybe ISU? It also tells me we are not getting in no matter how bad we want it. So maybe another P6 conference is the way to go.
Really I like our chances over any of the above.
I think Tech rides in with UT, the rest are really small markets or current G5s. The ACC had a chance to pick up WVU and passed. The private schools don’t tend to be as favored (Baylor being toxic doesn’t help). The Florida schools have big bros like we do in a smaller pond wanting to keep them out. Memphis is pretty small.
I like our chances overall.
The way this is stated is funny! You basically listed half the SEC, but to your point… I don’t think they add UH either. The SEC has the Houston market. They don’t need UH, and we need someone who absolutely NEEDS us. The PAC is the most likely option. They must expand East.
And of all the options that makes the most sense. Not only will the SEC not need us, but A&M will do everything they can to block us. Just like UT did, but they would do it in the open. Not behind closed doors like UT did.
If Tulane and Georgia Tech hadn’t left the SEC, literally over half of the teams in the conference would be in 5 states. The other 6 teams would be spread across 6 states. That’s why I think this whole TV market excuse is all B.S.
There’s another real possibility. UT (and maybeOU) goes to the other Big12 members and says they’ll keep the conference in tack on the condition that they get a disproportionate amount of whatever the new tv $ is, say 50% instead of 10%. At least 7 of the other members schools would have no other choice and would take that deal. UT gets more more and stays in control of the conference. No other conference allows any one school to control it, so it’s a win win for the Austin school.
Conference won’t get the money it wants in the new contracts. UT and OU will head over to the B1G West and contend for the B1G championship vs Ohio State.
PAC12:
Needs earlier games and needs to attract new revenues. The state of Texas is a natural marketing and geographical expansion.
BIG10:
More and more Texas recruits go out of state. The state of Texas seems like a natural geographical expansion. It would “cement” its “equal footing” rivalry against the SEC.
BUT…I never read/hear/watch an answer for the following questions.
Are the P5 conferences “protected” territories?
Is there a written rule within the P5’s of forbidding any poaching from the P5 territories?
U of H has great ratings in a major TV market. Great ratings bring big advertising revenues. We now have the facilities and our administration commitment to athletics. So what gives? On all levels I keep coming back to the above questions. We should have been invited by a P5 as soon as we committed to athletics.
uta and other small12 putting pressure on the other P5 members? When is this question going to be answered by the PAC12 or the BIG10. Both P5’s are our most logical entry into a P5.
I believe the biggest obstacle keeping UH from getting into a power conference is the networks. ESPN owns the SEC and ACC so there’s no need to add another Texas team by those conferences. The B1G will expand and UT and OU which gives them a good footing in Texas markets. The Pac-12 is the conference that is looking to try other options other than TV networks which would make UH the ideal candidate for their conference.
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the next move is when the BIG and PAC expand in the early 2020s…PAC seems a likely home and PAC is a FOX conference,
As long as ESPN continues to get great ratings on the cheap from UH, they will be content to ensure we stay in the AAC. In 2018, when the AAC renegotiates our contract, our only hope is that ESPN loses the AAC, and they convince a P5 conference to take us in to get us back on their network.
Cary, what ESPN wants doesnt matter as far as BIG and PAC are concerned…THey are FOX conferences…