Hawaii Bowl: Game Preview, Prediction


(Patrick) #1

Pretty good write-up and I like the prediction.

Number(s) of the game
3.64 and 3.48. Those are the points allowed per trip inside the 40 by Fresno State and Houston, respectively, and they rank 13th and 9th in the FBS. Put another way, both teams allowed a touchdown in the red zone exactly 54.55% of the time in conference play (Fresno State: 12-of-22; Houston: 18-of-33). Whoever wins this battle will win this game.

Prediction
This doesn’t strike me as a particularly good matchup for the Bulldogs, in the way that Boise State, at least, seemed like a battle of equals. The Cougars, like the Broncos, are remarkably similar to Fresno State, but it’s also clear that Houston will take the field with a singular talent that could disrupt many key strengths.

I do anticipate that the defense will play at its usual level, but I won’t be surprised if the offense scuffles more than usual because of the man in the middle of the Houston defense. If you’ve been paying attention to Fresno State football throughout November, expect more of the same, but the Bulldogs will probably need another year to erase its bowl drought. Houston 20, Fresno State 13.


(Patrick) #2

4 posts were merged into an existing topic: Hawaii bowl bound! - the coogs are headed to paradise


(Al) #6

Haven’t read any injury reports. Hoping we had enough time to heal up.


#7

CMAs interview with 790 (it’s on a different thread) he says UH has no significant injuries.


#8

When I look at team numbers I see two very evenly matched teams. Kenerly talks a lot about Oliver’s ability to disrupt offenses, which is only right. He mentions King but I don’t think he dug deep enough. I know DK has only had 3 QB starts and played 4 games but when I compare his performance to McMaryion’s it becomes clear to me that we have a real advantage in DK.

Point 1 - DK is far and away a better passing QB than anyone in the MW with a rating of 173.8 vs 147.9 for CSU QB Stevens. McMaryion is at 137.5. King’s adjusted QBR is 80.9 vs best in MW of 70.5. McMaryion rates at 58.7 (I didn’t include games that he barely played in).

Point 2 - DK is the best running QB FSU will face this year, except maybe for Hurts. If Hurts has an advantage, it’s in his size making him harder to tackle.

UH must:
On offense -

  1. Run effectively with the RBs.
  2. Go deep with the passing game.
  3. Let DK play his game

On defense -

  1. Sic 'em

#9

Agree except don’t play the soft zone or the Bulldogs will be on the field all day and they are better defensively than East Carolina who was also a passing team.


#10

Very good points. I agree with everything except for one thing. I would actually say eat em up for the defense not sick em :wink:

My outlook on the game is pretty simple. If we win I think the two key factors are going to actually be King and Carter.

King has yet to hit its full potential/stride, and now he’s had a couple weeks to get on the same page as all his receivers. I expect him to really know the offense and have a lot of confidence in everything that he does. Therefore I expect office to look much better than normal.

Carter is going to be huge and in turn Oliver will be a madman on defense. Fresno State has not had a chance to see much film on Carter and now that he is healthy he is going to free up Oliver and I think both of them are going to have a field day.

So obviously others will benefit, but I think that King and Carter will be the direct cause of what happens with the offense and defense.


#11

Fresno gets most of their yards from passing but they run about 54% to 46%. Our D gives up yards, that’s the style CMD plays. So we’ll play the way we’ve played all year.


#12

Looking for Patrick Carr to have a big game.

Eat 'em up, eat 'em up. Roar Cougars roar!


#13

Patrick Carr? What makes you think he’s going playing?


#14

That’s what I was thinking.


#15

Carter coming back strong has really improved our defense. I’m looking forward to a really good game from our front 7. FSU is not a come from behind type of team, so I we can score early and play good defense, I think it will be fun for us to watch.

McMaryion took over in their Washington game and played most of it and started the 10 games after that. So I’m calling that 11 games. Below, I take Kings performance from USF through Navy and project it out for 11 games. (I like doing this sort of thing) King is clearly an advantage for US. I don’t think the media realizes just how dynamic he is. Here are the results:


#16

Nice! I think that is a pretty fair/conservative analysis and you would think the numbers would trend up as he gets more and more up to speed.


#17

So on College Football both J. Palmer and the other picked us so lose with one at 12 point confidence and the other at 21.


#18

Bowl games are often won not only talent alone, but on which team comes to play. Hopefully, our team is more focused than it was last year in Las Vegas.


(Patrick) #19

Prediction
Houston should come ready to play. Last year’s loss definitely stung, and wasn’t the best way to end a disappointing season. With Applewhite settling everything down this year, this team has a good chance of winning. It will be a close one though.

Houston 24 Fresno State 21