Why are people thinking that the aac will not get a fair contract, when then have done so well in their
TV numbers? The AAC will get a big contract.
Because the history of the aac, dating back to the big east, proves otherwise.
Sure the contract will be bigger but I’ll attribute that to inflation and paying a little more than before. But I’d be happily surprised if it’s at, or above, $10 million per team. The top media markets in the AAC don’t make up for the bottom, unlike Michigan/Texas/North Carolina, etc.
Did you not hear what Mike Aresco said? After five years of knocking at a closed door _____ AAC
has enough evidence to support his theory that his league can hold it own with members of the power
conferences. The ultimate proof. UCF 13-0. U H 12-1
TV Markets N.Y. #1, Phila #4, Dallas Ftw #5, Houston #8, Wash DC #7, Tampa #11, Miami #16
Orlando #18, Hartford #30 Cinci #36. TV power. Look like 30 Mil a piece.
1 Like
Sun Belt and CUSA both doubled their contracts, although they are much less than what the American makes now. CUSA had to do the piecemeal approach across multiple platforms while the Sun Belt went with ESPN+.
I think expecting double what we get now is reasonable. Live sports and programming is big with providers right now since they are “DVR proof.” Question will be whether Aresco can get more.
The fact that every AAC school is looking to jump to P5, is not helping matters. Unless all AAC members are willing to make a long term committment to the AAC, why would any network offer even a halfway decent deal?
Would a 10 year deal with escalation clauses, starting at $12-15 million a year be enough to make all AAC members commit to an iron clad GOR?
$30 mil for each AAC school is a big enough commitment from the ESPN. It allow the AAC school not to
jump to a P5. It allow the AAC to keep their coaches. It allow the AAC to build a P6. AAC TV number are
as good as Big 12, and will pass Big 12, with a good commitment from a TV network
3 Likes
ESPN needs to invest $ into the AAC. It will payoff. Look what Dr. Khator has done for UH. Look what
UH has become in 10 years.
1 Like
No! If ESPN wants the AAC to have a GOR then they are going to have to elevate the AAC to P6 with appropriate money, conference network, automatic NY6, and a true chance at the playoffs for the champion.
1 Like
If not ESPN then CBS, or FOX, or some other network will see value for the AAC TV deal. Networks see
AAC TV rating, and the tv rating are very good. AAC will have skill negotiators.
Mike Aresco recognize Dr. Khator as the conference Board Chair and he added she has done a
remarkable job for the conference. FEAR NOT we will get to the promise land.
1 Like
The same was said when we joined the big east and were expecting a windfall from all the bidding that was expected. Dreams of fox wanting to stick it to ESPN. Expectations of some nbc expanding beyond notre dame and broadcasting the conference.
And that was with the likes of Rutgers and the NYC market and UH with our market and TCU bringing DFW.
Now we have the certainty that every team, from top to bottom, would jump ship if given the chance.
$6M is my guess.
I’ll be shocked if the new deal comes anywhere close to $20 million, let alone $30 million.
Realistically, I see $15 million as the top offer, and that too with serious conditions either requiring significant penalties for programs that leave at any time during the contract, or a lowering of the payout if any of the most valuable brands leaves.
Heck even $8 million will be a huge improvement. It would still be criminally low. Unless a serious bidding war starts (not very likely), I don’t see a deal better than $15 million. Even with a bidding war, the best deal will likely be $17-20 million, at most. The AAC is never getting P5 money. $20 million will put it close to the PAC 12, but still be half of what the B12 gets.
ESPN needs immediate return, not wait 10 years. They will pay the minimum they can. If there is no bidding war (and seriously I do not expect one), the AAC will have no choice but to accept what ESPN offers, no matter how low that offer might be.
We will get under $10M per team. Maybe way, way under. It’ll be more than we’ve been getting, so we’ll be grateful to get it. No reason for anyone to pay a premium for AAC games as any bidding war will be more like a bidding scuffle. Gotta move up to a P5 conference to get the big dollars. Isn’t this obvious?
Too, although I subscribe to ESPN+ to watch more boxing than I get on TV, I can’t see that sports fans will pay a second (or third) time to stream college football when so much of it is on TV for free. JMHO.
We have small gun in this gunfight. And no leverage, and worse everyone knows it. ESPN of going to give us a raise and we’ll be happy with it. There is no bidding war coming and pretending like we will be getting anywhere near P5 money means that you need to share whatever you’re smoking.
The person who knows the most about how this is going to go is Aresco and he sounds very confident in his recent interviews. He accepts this deal is a referendum on him as commissioner and is not backing down from that. However he can also claim victory if at a minimum we get double the current deal, which I and several of us would not consider a win as the original contract is not good.
If we resign with ESPN keep us off ESPN+. Please. It is a ratings killer.
Even a doubling of the deal will be keep AAC in a massive hole compared to the P5.
So long as it’s materially enough to differentiate us from the rest of the g# then we will be ok.
The problem is if it isn’t then the AAC will simply be a blip just like the MAC and MWC were with their teams reaching highs and knocking off BCS teams and then returning to the norm.
We won’t get a big boost but so long as it’s at least double what the next G# conference gets then we will be better than usual. And have to adjust budgets accordingly.
1 Like
The deal we have now was a short term rock bottom deal (but with lots of exposure) because the AAC was unproven and unstable. The plan was to do well on the field and with TV ratings, and then renegotiate sooner rather than later.
So far so good on that plan. The conference has done that and more. ESPN is getting excellent value from the AAC and they’d be foolish not to retain it.
While we won’t get P5 money, we are likely to get significantly more that the rest. How much more will depend upon the emergence of other suitors, the hope being that online players (in addition to the traditional pkatforms) will provide bidding competition that did not exist before.
The conference is in a good position. My guess is that we will get around $10 million per team annually. Let’s hope Aresco can get us north of that $10 million with a really strong football/basketball showing this year.
1 Like
I am not optimistic simply because the ESPN business environment is different now. They overpaid for other content and started shedding staff in an effort to do better financially. I agree the AAC has done well but the timing of the renegotiation in this new environment / business enlightenment has me questioning what the AAC can reasonably expect. #Power6