Projections were just updated yesterday and Texas is now expected to peak tomorrow in deaths per day. Peak hospital resource use occurred on April 15 instead of April 29 which was the original projection.
Thats good to hear. I wonder if this will hold true
for the hot spot areas in the state.
Okay so June 1st is the earliest possible date some restrictions could be lifted.
The fading death scenario is likely based on data from China. They’ve been under reporting from the beginning. While I hope that is how it plays out I dont have a lot of confidence it will.
I don’t think this model is even trying to project any summer deaths. Probably impossible we (the US) go June 17th to August 4th with no deaths and the last in Texas happening May 18th. Their projections for overall deaths have been weird lately too, jumping up after a couple good days and then back down after the worst days which were way over their projection.
Looking forward to hearing the Govs plan this coming week. He already has relaxed restrictions with far more to come. We’ll be using the phased methodology with gating criteria before phase exit and entry.
Texas has 70 counties that has not reported one case of COVID-19 and 192 counties with no deaths and across the board capacity across the state’s all 22 Trama Service Areas with plenty of capacity.
We’ll be rolling out by the Task Force’s phased program. Abbott’s money statement today was we’re not NY. NY has more deaths in a day then we’ll have across the entire duration of teh Coronavirus.
Texas has 2 deaths to date per 100K while NY has 88 deaths per 100K.
IHME is projecting only 957 deaths and NY has 21,812 projected.
Their model is heavily dependent upon actual deaths occurring real time that they update daily but update with new projections a couple times per week. As actuals reduce their deaths per day on the right side of the curve their projections will come down further with those actual reductions. Those actual reductions are not currently baked into the model yet for they aren’t actuals yet. Its clearly documented on their website that those actual reductions will influence future projections.
On the flip side, if we do reduce social distancing in May as expected by Abbott, it will increase those actuals to some extent also for the model assumes social distancing as applied today in state through May. We’ll see what happens.
My gut feel is this thread won’t last long.
I suppose that makes sense, they are probably still the best at this from everything I have seen. I was really surprised when the 3700 NY deaths got added to the official count that the IHME overall projection dropped with the next update.
It is a slippery slope and flipping the coin. Reason it’s not prevalent here is because everyone is sitting at home. Relax conditions with no testing and watch this thing sweep through the inner city and suburbs. Could very well turn ugly here next month.
2 Likes
Heat is an enemy of virus so you might be right.