This is one of most important point that is very rarely brought up. We have known for decades now that we have an obesity problem.
Data points:
Statistics About Diabetes | ADA.
So let’s look at the covid-19 and diabetes:
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I just saw this, which might be the change to Covid death tracking you heard about. I will keep my comments brief about it, but this way of counting will certainly lead to a lower death count and more non Covid excess deaths. We are basically going the opposite of how a state like NY or NJ counts deaths. If we counted flu deaths this way, we would have barely any deaths from the flu. It is also an embarrassment how the state is screwing up reporting so bad. Oh well.
https://twitter.com/TexasDSHS/status/1288957390952501252/photo/1
I hadn’t looked at the IHME model in some time so decided to check it out. It’s had plenty of accuracy issues so who knows. That said, here’s their projections by November.
Total US deaths - 230,822
Top states:
NY - 34,523
TX - 24,557
NJ - 17,040
CA - 16,515
FL - 16,318
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In Texas if we can continue our slow decline in cases, I would not expect that many deaths. Especially since we changed the way we are counting deaths. I don’t know though, I was a little too optimistic with our ceiling for deaths when new cases was at 9-10k a day. I was hoping only a little over 150 a day and when today’s numbers are finalized we will already be over 200 deaths a day for our 7 day average. I am really hoping we are soon at the peak for deaths, but that means we will be around 200 deaths a day for like 2 weeks and then very slowly come down. Best case scenario would be staying under 5k deaths in August which puts the total over 11k.
Texas has passed California on deaths per million. We are about to pass the European average too. That number is over 240 now. It seems like just yesterday people were bragging about us being at 60 and saying to not worry about all the new cases.
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And of course right after I post this I see we had 8839 new cases today. That raises the 7 day average a little.
And remember our excess deaths is significantly higher than the reported number. I’ll check this weekend, but last time I did the stats we were at 5k dead listed , but had over 8k excess deaths for same time period and that was including to weeks before covid got goingwhere we had negative excess deaths.
Wasn’t there a bet on this board around Texas COVID deaths? I think it was at 7 or 8K for the year.
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At least the 7 day average for positive test rates has dropped from 17.12% on 7/16/20 to 12.12% on 7/31/20. A very nice, steady 5% drop in 2 weeks. Being a 7 day average, it will take longer to make signficant drops like that.
That’s positive news. Mask orders appear to be working. If they hadn’t been deployed, we’d be shutting everything down again.
Hopefully we can get infections down to a sane level again.
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Agree!
Hopefully people see the value and our leaders continue to reinforce the value of them and we continue to drop. My main concern is that as soon as we see some progress that some of the population will let down as they did in June when it started to bite us in the butt.
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I see a lot of people coming to rent cars or return cars without masks when they approach the doors, or wearing it exposed nose style. Body shops along 610 South, and there are a ton of them, are not very busy which means people are driving less and having fewer accidents, so many seem to limit their trips, a good thing. I’m sure some of that is fewer people commuting. Too, I’ve noticed many people leave their cars at the shops rather than return them to the store, as we have to go and retrieve them. That helps lower the risk on both ends.
I go to Whole Foods where people politely distance and masks are on when they approach the building. HEB on Buffalo Speedway is more crowded, but most people are properly wearing masks but not elbowing each other to get to the shelves. People go to places where it feels safe. I’m not going to Walmart, where I assume all bets are off.
On Stella Link at West Belfort is a bunch of football fields. At 5:30 tonight is was jammed with people and cars. Glad it’s outside, but I’m sure plenty of bad judgment is on tap.
We have a long way to go to get people habitually wearing masks. If we can persuade people to wear masks which express their style or tout their schools, teams, etc., we will see mask compliance soar. At one time sneakers were just for playing sports, but now young people buy them to make a statement. Gonna be a long six or more months if we can’t get people willing to wear masks in their daily interactions.
Coog51 was saying there was no way that there would be more than 7K death in Texas for the year.
I said 10k (the number of flu deaths in 17-18). I just may lose this bet.
I looked into the 10K flu deaths because it seemed too high. It looks like the number the media was using total pneumonia and flu deaths in reporting that number. All pneumonia deaths are not counted as flu deaths.
I found a CDC chart that had Texas flu deaths at closer to 4K for that year but can’t find it now. Will look more later.
Either way, Texas is on pace to pass 10K by the end of next week.
Unfortunately I am betting the over now.
The 9,470 number (which was rounded up to 10K) was total flu and pneumonia deaths. The link below is where it was pulled from. See table 8 and 9:
Found the CDC numbers by states discussed above. The number for 2018 was 3,516.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm
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We are already over it. Remember they are undercounting the deaths if you use excess deaths since just March 1st (i think, my spreadsheet is at home) we were at 10K two weeks ago. Also, @Coog51, you once again prove yourself to not use the currency of truth.
" Coog51
I will play over under. We won’t go over a normal flu season death total in Texas (7,000) in two year of Covid deaths. We will open up, Covid will come back in November and it still wont get to 7,000."
It’s funny how we all knew you said 7K, and it could be proven otherwise, yet you lied about saying it. It’s hilarious because @92010Coogs asked in a thread about why would people lie about HCQ and I pointed out how people will lie, even under oath, when it can be proven to be a lie.
Here you give a community example.
Clearly says something
I didn’t say that!
At some point you should realize that if you keep having to deny the truth to defend your stance, you should reevaluate your stance. This is where cognitive disonance comes in. If a stance is part of, or too close to, one’s self identitity it kicks in so strong that humans deny facts, even when they see them with their own eyes.
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