Lets break down the path to the conference championship

Many are saying that Navy has to lose two games, but that is technically not true. There are at least two paths to the AAC Championship game. All these involve us winning out in-conference at the minimum. Here are the rules:

In the event that two teams are tied, head-to head competition would break the tie. If the two teams did not play, division record will be used to determine the divisional champion.

However, if three or more teams are tied, the following tiebreakers are used to determine the divisional champion:

Head-to-head (best record in games among the tied teams).
Record in games played within the division.
Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on record in all Conference games, both divisional and non-divisional).
Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on record in divisional games).
Record against common non-divisional opponents.
Best overall winning percentage in all games.
Highest CFP ranking following the last weekend of regular-season games.
Coin toss.

So if:

  1. Navy loses two (they still have to play Memphis and @USF, so real possibility here).
  2. Navy loses to Memphis, Memphis wins all other games other than UH, and we beat Memphis creating a three-way tie. Then all things being equal it goes to CFP ranking, in which there is a real possibility of us being the highest ranked.

To host, we need USF to lose (they play @Memphis). The site of the Championship Game is the home stadium of the division champion with the best overall conference record. In the event that the two division champions are tied, then the head-to-head record shall be used as the tiebreaker. If the two teams did not play, overall record is used to determine hosting. If the two remain tied after that tiebreaker, then the team with the highest CFP ranking following the last regular-season game hosts.

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Excellent stuff, H town! i think we are still in this thing, as i do not believe Navy can escape with losing some conference games…Love a Memphis showdown in November…Go Tigers!

Hell yes we are still in it. Do all y’all give up so easily at work?

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Still lots of football to play.

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Bottom line:

Navy, Memphis and USF all play each other before Houston-Louisville week. If we are 9-1 going into Louisville, we’ll know what our chances are.

Maybe we got a shot at winning the division. Maybe we don’t and Louisville is our “bowl game.”

Until then, LBTulsa.

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It’s unlikely, but run the table and they put themselves in position for an at-large bid. Need some chaos though.

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I just think there are some people who enjoy in the comfort of negativity and and the safety of low expectations.

Patrick you are correct and lot of football left to be played…Cotton has 2 at large berths…Boise wins out, they grab the auto G5 slot, but if we can beat Louisville and go 11-1, we have a good chance at the other at large, depending on what happens elsewhere…We need Baylor to run the table and win out or lose 2 or 3 games…We need Aggie to run the table or lose 2 or 3 games…
Of course, i still think Navy will drop 2 and we can still win the championship…

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In what order is the tie breaker applied?
For example. Do they start with all 3 teams tied, and remove the worst team 1st (Head-to-head (best record in games among the tied teams) . Then go by Best record in games played within the division and so forth down the list?

They way it’s applied could still give Navy the keys to the AAC CG.

Someone mentioned this on another site:

Scenario: Navy wins out (10-1). Houston wins out (11-1). Memphis only loses to Houston (10-2).
If the tiebreaker is just applied straight up then Houston would win based on “Best overall winning percentage in all games.” Navy will not have played Army before the AAC championship, so will only be 10-1 while Houston would be 11-1.
If the tiebreaker is applied to remove the worst team and then move to head to head between the two remaining then it would be Navy. Memphis would have the worst win percentage which would leave Navy and Houston. Navy beat Houston, so Navy is the division winner.

Remember that Navy already has an out of conference loss; Navy would be 9-2, prior to the Army game, at best if there is a 3-way tie. If the Coogs win out and there is a 3 way tie, the would win the tiebreaker for best winning percentage no matter what happens.

If the Coogs lose to Louisville and there is a 3-way tie, all 3 teams would have 2 losses; at that point, Navy would need to play Army in order to stay alive. My assumption is that the championship game would be moved to the week after the Army-Navy game in order to accomodate that tiebreaker. If Navy wins that game, it would then go to the next tiebreaker - best overall CFP ranking. Ideally, the Coogs would win that tiebreaker over both Navy and Memphis.

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