2018, 2019, 2020 and 2023 all have two road games and only one spot left to fill. 2022 is the only year next over the 6 years we can schedule a road game without making it 3 road games.
This means we have room for only one more home and home series we can schedule against a P5 that doesn’t push the contract into 2024. To me that points to us having to now fill at least 2 spots with a one and done which usually points to the FCS.
So the question remains, if we can only schedule 1 home game against a P5 and the other year has to be an FCS, would 2018 or 2019 year be our push for the playoffs? I’m thinking if we had our choice, 2018 is the FCS filler and 2019 is the year we have the third P5 game.
Looking at 2018, there are still 3 FBS schools that could feasibly fit a road game into their schedule:
FIU
UAB
Western Michigan
If our current dates are locked in for next year, UAB would be the easiest to schedule as they have an opening on 9/22. However, dates can usually be moved around within reason. Honestly, while none of the three are very attractive for our fanbase, I’d rather schedule any of the three over playing an FCS school.
Looking at 2019, these FBS schools would be available to play here:
Arkansas
Army
BYU
Coastal Carolina
Miami (FL)
Akron
Appalachian State
Fresno State
Two options for P5 schools still out there. Arkansas currently has an FCS and 2 G5 scheduled while Miami has Florida (in Orlando) and Central Michigan scheduled.
The key isn’t finding an FBS that can fit a road game in 2018. The key is finding an FBS that can fit a road game in 2018 and don’t mind us waiting until 2023 to give them a return date.
Everything aligned for us to be in the top 4 if we had remained undefeated last year. If we pull off a 12 win season in 2018, go undefeated in 2019 and we beat a few top 25 and one top 10 along the way, we could be in the same spot.
I admire your optimism and if that were to happen it would be incredibly interesting to see what pressure would be applied to the commitee to admit an “outsider” into the P5 country club.
However, I believe the commitee would bend to the $$$$$ people and stay with the “ their strength of schedule” argument.
UAB and Western Michigan will most likely add an FCS to get to 6 home games. FIU is the only real option to play for a one and done in Houston. I say go for BYU in 2019 as they should be back on track by then, that would be most realistic option as they have 6 home games already that year. They would have to be ok with the return being in 2022.
The big issue is 2020 as it will be hard to get a P5 to play on the road that year and not get a returning game until 2024. The Advocare Kickoff would be perfect to help with that issue, but Baylor-Ole Miss is already set for that year. I say start preparing to only have one P5 that year.
If it has to be we should try to schedule good ones. Here’re the top FCS schools since 2014. Each of these schools finished or is currently ranked in the top 5 of the FCS Coaches Poll. ND State and Sam Houston have been in the top 5 3 time since 2014. SHSU finished in the top 5 in '15 and '16 and is currently #4. NDSU is not currently ranked in the top 5 but finished #1 in '14 and '15 and #3 in '16.
James Madison seems to be the current hot school in that division so they’re another possibility.
