The biggest hurdle is not the money or bowls or anything…it’s their self-perception.
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Lot of truth to that apparently. They don’t like being in a G5 when Utah is in a P5. But there is ample reason for them to join. I did some quick research, and their deal with ESPN is only some 4.5m. In addition, as an independent not named Notre Dame they get peanuts from the CFP. It’s not as if any G5s are making out like bandits from it, but the AAC has received about 20m each of the past couple of years, some 1.6m per school. BYU gets about 300-400k. They would also get to play for a championship, a slot in a NY6 bowl, better scheduling in the second half of the season (Liberty, Idaho State, and UMass in November when others are in a championship chase), and I bet the conference would make some concessions such as third-tier rights. Very possible the AAC could get a non-NY6 contract bowl with BYU.
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For those of you that want to know how the Big Ten used to schedule their 11-team conference that Aresco has mentioned as a blueprint, here it is. It is sounding more and more like this is what will happen.
So long UConn… thanks for extra $700k a year to every team in the conference, plus the $1M+/ to each remaining team in your exit fees. No reason to expand when everyone will make more money.
Each B1G team had 2 permanent opponents and were placed in one of 3 pods of teams; two pods of 4 teams and one pod of 3.
- Penn State- Ohio State, Michigan State
- Ohio State- Michigan, Penn State
- Michigan- Ohio State, Michigan State
- Michigan State- Michigan, Penn State
- Northwestern- Illinois, Purdue
- Illinois- Indiana, Northwestern
- Indiana- Illinois, Purdue
- Purdue- Indiana, Northwestern
- Iowa- Minnesota, Wisconsin
- Minnesota- Iowa, Wisconsin
- Wisconsin- Iowa, Minnesota
With 11 teams/8 in-conference games, there would be 2 teams you didn’t play each year. They did it where two teams would rotate off your schedule for two years. The two teams off your schedule were typically from two different and separate pods. Every six years, the 4-team pod would not play the fourth team for two years (team within the pod that was NOT a permanent opponent).
For instance, Ohio State didn’t play Wisconsin or Purdue in 2005 or 2006 and Indiana or Iowa in 2007 or 2008. In 2003 and 2004, they skipped Minnesota and Illinois, and in 2009, they skipped Michigan St (the fourth, non-permanent opponent of their pod) and Northwestern.
The one thing i appreciate is Aresco isn’t playing with potential school’s and fan’s emotions, pulling the dog and pony horse s*** that the lil 12 pulled.
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To add to my last post… My suggestion would be for the AAC to create the following:
- Houston - SMU and Tulane
- SMU - Tulane and Houston
- Tulane - SMU and Houston
- Cincinnati - Memphis and Temple
- Temple - Cincy and Tulsa
- Memphis - Cincy and Tulsa
- Tulsa - Memphis and Temple
- UCF - USF and ECU
- USF - UCF and Navy
- ECU - UCF and Navy
- Navy - ECU and USF
This would make the most geographical sense. The pod of 3 teams would be Houston, SMU and Tulane (Texas and LA). A pod of 4 being Tulsa, Memphis, Cincy, and Temple (The Northern teams). The other pod of 4 would be UCF, USF, ECU, and Navy (East teams).
Edit:
Or Cincy/Temple/Navy/Memphis and Tulane/SMU/Tulsa/Houston as you four and UCF/USF/ECU is your pod of three.
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They also bring a solid baseball program with much room for growth in a fertile baseball recruiting ground.
Makes total sense but does it have to be geographic-dont we want the hardest pod possible? Houston-UCF-Memphis
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Aresco has stated they want to preserve regional rivalries, e.g. UCF - USF, Houston - SMU. They will probably create some new ones.
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Navy would want to have UH and SMU so that they could play in Texas every year. It’s why they insisted on being in the West Division. I’m sure SMU would be our other rival.
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They would still play in Texas. They don’t have to be in the same pod.
Reality. They just won’t make it as an independent - financially or for receiving consideration in CFP or even NY6 competition. They have quietly acknowledged this. Their biggest regret is not being able to work out the offer from B12. So I’m told by a couple of BYU alumni buds who are long time supporters. ESPN will probably make the final “decision”, as they hold the purse strings.
My issue with it was always that without a conference they didn’t have much to play for. No conference championship, no NY6 bowl… not even a “best bowl possible” thing because their arrangement means they go to the same bowl whether they get 6 wins or 10. The money did seem good, though.
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Where did you see that their money was good? No one knows exactly how much they get from TV since they’re private, but a reporter got revenue and expenditure percentages with some figures and was able to get pretty close. He claimed the ESPN TV deal was worth c. 4.5m per year. And as an independent not named Notre Dame, BYU only gets some 300-400k from the CFP payout. AAC schools have received some 1.5m the past couple of years. BYU is negotiating w/ESPN now. Longer it goes without striking a deal the better the AAC’s chances of adding them to the conference.
$5m is typically what I’ve heard until recently, so my assumption was off by a half-mill. But really it’s comparatively speaking. Their most immediate alternative was the Mountain West Conference and us (on a $2m contract). Not sure you can cut up the numbers in such a way that they didn’t financially benefit from the choice that they made.
Now of course we make more than they do. They’re negotiating. Whether the money is still comparatively good depends on how much they’re negotiating for, which I do not know.
Yeah 5 million is in the ballpark. The 4.5 I heard was a guesstimate. Would love to have them join as I think their membership could help us a little financially and also very possibly mean some better bowls for the conference. I would think the Liberty or some such bowl would be as interested in a champion from a league with BYU, Navy, Houston, UCF, etc. as the 5th or so place team from the Big 12, likely a Baylor, TCU, or Iowa State.
Talked to a BYU person, dude seemed kind of resigned and preferred their independence than joining the AAC. Prefers their P5 scheduling flexibility, maintaining regional rivalries. Didn’t care much if they made an NY6 (money would be split in conference) nor did he care about more competitive schedule later in the year. Didn’t care about the perception that they can’t work in a conference. As far as joining a P5, if it happens it happens, if not, they’ll keep on truckin’.
It seems that their perception is that the B12 expansion was their shot, if it didn’t happen then, P5 is never going to happen. Fatalistic or realistic? Can be argued both ways. I can understand the resignation.
All of this is anecdotal of course, but I’m glad we’re fighting until the end to improve our position and profile.
PS - second time I’ve heard this position from BYU people
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Seems to me like “BYU People” need to also look at it from the football team’s perspective. Players want to play for something, be it an NY6 bowl to show that they are the best G5 team in the country, a conference championship to show that they are one of the two best teams in a conference, and individual conference honors. It makes recruiting easier when a coach can showcase measurable achievements.
Seems like they might be able to get a better coach, too. I know they want to hire a Mormon and that might restrict their options, but their current one was previously a position coach at Oregon State. Maybe with a conference they would have gotten the Navy coach.
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Right…but they also think they’re not G5. They are G5 level, but they sure do think they’re not. They may have a lot of fans, but fans don’t make a Power program, not by the current definition. They don’t make P5 money from the networks and they’re not an autonomous school. They think perception is all you need.
If that’s the case…we’re a Power school playing in a G5 conference too
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Exactly
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It’s more likely that UConn is leveraging the Big East to get ESPN to yield to their desire to have a separate SNY deal. Frankly I don’t think their are actually leaving the AAC. Geography, travel costs factors aside, it’s a risky move really, dismantling the football program to appease the catholic schools.
This thought had crossed my mind, but I think the deal is pretty much done.
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