with a win over ECU and a Tulsa loss at Cincy.
We would be 12-4. Tulsa would be 10-6, with 12-6 the best they can achieve. We beat Tulsa and own the tiebreaker head to head.
Unfortunately, the way I read the tiebreaker, even if we tied Wichita State at 14-4 (assuming Wichita lost to Cincy), we would still be 3rd seed.
- Head to head: still tied
- Record vs Cincy: still tied
- Record vs next best team where we played the same number of games: Memphis (Wichita 1-0, Houston 0-1).
Note: Going 2-0 against a Team when the other was 1-0 does not break a tie. Neither does going 1-0 against a team when the other goes 1-1. Neither does going 1-1 when the other went 0-1. Neither does going 0-1 when the other went 0-2. Why? Because the team playing just one game could have equaled the record of the team playing two games.
See page 24:
So the effective tiebreaker comes when both schools play the same number of games against a foe and have a different record. Or if a team goes 2-0 when the other goes 0-1, because the other could never be 2-0 in that situation.
At 14-4, we would have held the tiebreaker over Wichita if Temple or SMU was next in line in the standings. We we would be 2-0 against those teams. Wichita was 1-1. Alas, it appears Memphis will finish ahead of both.
So the 3 seed is the best we can hope for barring an UCF upset of Wichita.
I am projecting Memphis to be the 5 seed should they beat UConn today. If so, we would likely play UCF or Temple in the quarterfinals.