Today we can clinch the 3 seed


#1

with a win over ECU and a Tulsa loss at Cincy.

We would be 12-4. Tulsa would be 10-6, with 12-6 the best they can achieve. We beat Tulsa and own the tiebreaker head to head.

Unfortunately, the way I read the tiebreaker, even if we tied Wichita State at 14-4 (assuming Wichita lost to Cincy), we would still be 3rd seed.

Tiebreaker Procedure:

  1. Head to head: still tied
  2. Record vs Cincy: still tied
  3. Record vs next best team where we played the same number of games: Memphis (Wichita 1-0, Houston 0-1).

Note: Going 2-0 against a Team when the other was 1-0 does not break a tie. Neither does going 1-0 against a team when the other goes 1-1. Neither does going 1-1 when the other went 0-1. Neither does going 0-1 when the other went 0-2. Why? Because the team playing just one game could have equaled the record of the team playing two games.

See page 24:

http://sidearm.sites.s3.amazonaws.com/theamerican.sidearmsports.com/documents/2017/10/16/2017_18_MBB_Media_Guide.pdf

So the effective tiebreaker comes when both schools play the same number of games against a foe and have a different record. Or if a team goes 2-0 when the other goes 0-1, because the other could never be 2-0 in that situation.

At 14-4, we would have held the tiebreaker over Wichita if Temple or SMU was next in line in the standings. We we would be 2-0 against those teams. Wichita was 1-1. Alas, it appears Memphis will finish ahead of both.

So the 3 seed is the best we can hope for barring an UCF upset of Wichita.

I am projecting Memphis to be the 5 seed should they beat UConn today. If so, we would likely play UCF or Temple in the quarterfinals.


(Patrick) #2

3 seed works. Main thing is to have that bye in the first round.


(Patrick) #3

#4

That makes a lot of sense playing a west regional in Pittsburgh.


#5

West Pittsburgh. Lol. It is it Pittsburgh, ca


#6

Well, Pittsburgh is near WEST Virginia. So, there’s that.


#7

Oh yeah! The one by Port Chicago!


#8

So, 3 seed at least now?


#9

People in Philly consider it west.


#10

Actually it does make a lot of sense. Since the pod system came into existence, the first couple of rounds of the tournament have been played in locations that minimize travel for the higher seeded teams and the lower seeded teams as well when that makes sense. I would love to see the Coogs vs. UNCCHeat in the second round. The Coogs can win that game if they play well


(Patrick) #11

#12

Hmmm…I think we have better than a 12.71% chance of winning this thing on a neutral court.


#13

Kinda weird how SMU has the 4th best chance of winning it all but only the 8th best chance of getting to the quarter finals and semi finals. How the hell does that work?


#14

If you are 50-50 every game, then there’s a 12.5% chance you win 3 in a row.

I think it’s generous to say we are 77% to beat UCF or Temple. Probably closer to 70%.

After that, I’d give us 40% to beat Cincy or Wichita.

0.7 * 0.4 * 0.4 = 11%


(Patrick) #15