Beating a down UConn on the road was a sign that it is possible. Why 4 losses, because RPI forecast says that finishing 23-7 will put us around a 36th ranked RPI. That is of course with all other teams finishing where they are projected or at least if for every one team behind us overachieves another team ahead of us under achieves.
For those that don’t follow RPI forecast, this isn’t a prediction of how the teams will do. It forecasts where teams will approximately end up based on how they finish.
List of toughest games left from hardest to less difficult by RPI: @Cinci March 2nd @SMU Jan 21st
Cinci Jan 7th @UCF Jan 14th
SMU Feb 18th
@ Memphis Feb 26th
The toughest part is the 5 game stretch from the 7th to the 21st. We can lose 3 games and still be in the hunt but losing 3 out of 5 games can hinder fan support and team morale. On the other hand, losing to Memphis and Cinci back to back toward the end of the season would pretty much guarantee that a mid 40’s RPI would only be saved by beating BOTH Cinci and SMU at home.
I believe a loss to any of the games outside of those 6 would bury us with a conference tourney championship being our only chance. Here’s to hoping we win the next 4 in a row.
36 in the RPI doesn’t guarantee anything. Teams in the 30s routinely get passed over. Since 1999, 23 teams in the RPI Top 40 got snubbed. That’s more than 1 per year.
So an average of 1 to 2 teams in the top 40 get snubbed. I’m curious how many of those teams lost more than 2 out of their last 10 games. There is several categories they look at. Bad losses and last 10 games are the biggest categories. Obviously if we lose 4 or less games, odds are we got 8-2 in our final 10 at the worst.
Circled in wins for us have got to be both Tulane games, at USF, both East Carolina games, both Tulsa games and here against UConn. 8 games.
Circled in losses for us have got to be both Cinci games and at SMU. 3 games.
Games we should win; both Memphis games and here at UCF. 3 games.
Games we should lose; at Temple and at SMU. 2 games.
Toss up game, at UCF. 1 game.
Current record 12-3.
My current predicted record 25-7
The loss against Harvard still has me scratching my head with this team. I was not by far a horrible loss, as Harvard currently has an RPI of 98, but there was no reason to lose that game other than the team not being focused. Consider that LSU has an RPI of 76 and we were the better team (arguably) for the first half. Same could be said about Arkansas who has an RPI of 24.
Our best win to date is Rhode Island who has an RPI of 46.
Hopefully the Hoff will be rocking on 1/7 and we play a complete game. It would be a great win…assuming we take care of USF and Tulsa first. I can’t make the Cinci game and it’s killing me.
Harvard game was just one of those games. Holidays causes players to lose focus, 2nd game in 3 nights vs an opponent that hadn’t played in 2 weeks, shots just didn’t fall. Not a good loss by any means, but hopefully the team learns you can’t lose focus.
Say what you want about RPI but by late December, it’s a pretty good measuring stick on where teams stand. The only way they could keep it that simple, unbiased and still make it more accurate is if it scaled the value of home, neutral and road games. Keeping track of injuries on over 300 teams and how to weigh those injuries is just too much to ask.