Beating a down UConn on the road was a sign that it is possible. Why 4 losses, because RPI forecast says that finishing 23-7 will put us around a 36th ranked RPI. That is of course with all other teams finishing where they are projected or at least if for every one team behind us overachieves another team ahead of us under achieves.
For those that don’t follow RPI forecast, this isn’t a prediction of how the teams will do. It forecasts where teams will approximately end up based on how they finish.
List of toughest games left from hardest to less difficult by RPI:
@Cinci March 2nd
@SMU Jan 21st
Cinci Jan 7th
@UCF Jan 14th
SMU Feb 18th
@ Memphis Feb 26th
The toughest part is the 5 game stretch from the 7th to the 21st. We can lose 3 games and still be in the hunt but losing 3 out of 5 games can hinder fan support and team morale. On the other hand, losing to Memphis and Cinci back to back toward the end of the season would pretty much guarantee that a mid 40’s RPI would only be saved by beating BOTH Cinci and SMU at home.
I believe a loss to any of the games outside of those 6 would bury us with a conference tourney championship being our only chance. Here’s to hoping we win the next 4 in a row.