If Navy stays put, I think they take UAB and Marshall and stay at 10.
Other candidates (if Navy needs to be replaced, or if I’m wrong about one of the above) would include: Rice - For prestige, if the TV dollars don’t matter much either way. Schools are comfortable with them. Houston market, weak as their hold is. They are terrible, is the main problem here. Southern Miss - This depends on existing relationships with the school. They’re familiar. Most of the teams have worked with them before. UTSA - San Antonio market. My guess is they can put together a good presentation on dollars and fans. They had some outstanding attendance numbers at the start and could again if they can reach their potential. They haven’t reached their potential, though. Appalachian State - They are battle-ready and keep the conference relevant competitively, if that’s their main criteria. Not a great cultural fit and no market, though.
Maybe a MAC school - I just don’t know enough about them to gauge. I know Toledo, Akron, and NIU have wanted to make a move but a lot of them seem happy in that conference.
For various reasons, I’d be surprised if it were Liberty, Coastal Carolina, FIU, or FAU.
Remember, if the CFP expands to 6 conference champs, there’s still an excellent chance the American Conf Champ makes the bracket. So SMU and Memphis will have good reasons to keep focused on winning, winning big, playing OOC games against power conferences and the other tweener conference (new Big 12).
To be as competitive as possible, the AAC should pick up Liberty and Appy State and leave it at that. The AAC only needs 10 football schools, no need to dilute just because you lost three programs.
Those two additions would give the AAC a good 10 team conference and time to evaluate the best of the SBC and CUSA under the new playoff system and pick up the best two regional players in the southeast to bolster the AAC for the next TV/internet deal.
Adding Rice, UNT, UTSA, TXST or even MWC schools does very, very little, and if UH is left behind, I wouldn’t be happy about any those programs joining the AAC. Non-power conferences should stay as regional as they can, no need to have coast to coast games for $5-$7 million per school.
Whatever the AAC does, I hope they do not make any panic additions just to cobble a conference together, like it did when they added Tulane, Tulsa and ECU. If UH isn’t invited to the Big 12, I’d want the same two schools mentioned above and then have our conference show some darn patience.
The AAC Champ has a real chance to make the playoffs going forward, maybe more so than the three schools that “might” move the the Big 12.
SMU and Memphis to MWC is logical and would make the MWC the “Power6” league.
The problem is that neither SMU nor Memphis will pony up (no pun intended) $10M to buy their way out of the AAC to go to the MWC. That’s a hard check to write.
I want no part of Liberty U. I don’t think the conference does, either. There’s a reason they haven’t gotten any indications. It’s Baylor but arguably worse.
App State is fine, though I don’t know what their resources and TV numbers look like. I don’t think they get an invite, but they may be the most deserving.
I do think they only add two as long as Navy stays put. I just think it’s more likely to be Conference USA school. We don’t have to worry about Rice because they won’t be invited while we’re around. UTSA might be, but they’d probably need to make a convincing case that they would have the resources to compete.
I wouldn’t leave the AAC if I were Memphis. I think WVU is gonna try like hell to get into the ACC. if that happens, Memphis would have to be the lead candidate.
The AAC will still have value and the conference champ has a dang good shot to make an expanded playoff spot.
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