20 teams that snapped it at 20 seconds or quicker…run 3.00 or more plays per minute…see a pattern?
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so we are too fast
Duh. Not directed at you
Needs a column for offensive points per game.
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The teams in the group scored 36.8 points per game…vs 35.7 allowed vs FBS opponents. Average margin victory…1.1.
Average record…6.9 Wins vs 5.5 Losses
Average ESPN Def Efficiency…42.5 out of 100…50 is considered average and considers SOS and Garbage Time
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The range for points allowed in that chart is massive - 22.8 to 44.8. Even a swing of 2-3 ppg allowed over a season could have significant impact on the win/loss record of a team.
I am not trying invalidate or “poo poo” your argument. I think what you are trying to show with all of this has significance. I just think you are riding that horse way too hard, to the point you are blinding yourself to other factors that reflect poorly on D’Onofrio’s coordination.
Does the amount of plays faced by the defense factor into how well they are able to play and endure? Does the speed of the offense put pressure on a defense? Yes. Is it the most important factor or the only factor? No, not even close. It is just one facet of defensive performance.
We are allowing 11 more points per game over last year (34.7 vs 23.8) and surprisingly, we still have managed a better record than last year despite the injuries. That is how bad our offense was last year. If you had to pinpoint one area for improvement/one area holding us back from that next step, you would be off your rocker to say anything other than defense.
For reference, UCF is running 76.2 plays per game with 26:06 avg ToP or 2.92 plays per minute. Their defense allows 23.9 ppg for 39th in the country. That is why they are undefeated. The are only averaging 1.5 less plays per game and one minute more of possession, but are allowing more than 10 points less per game.
We need a new D coordinator.
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The offenses averaged 2.63 points per possession…which averaged 470th out of 1731 teams since 2005… Top 27th percentile. So 26% of slower teams were better. Defenses allowed 2.40 points per possession…average rank of 1213 out of 1731 teams…bottom 30th percentile. 70% of defenses were better.
UH was allowing 2.26 pst per possession before last night and scoring 3.06 per on offense
Cary
There are exceptions of course. the numbers are averages for large group. There are always outliers.
The other thing that is revenant is the first year…offense jumps up by 0.50 ppm
or 4 seconds pace.This is what made me look into it. 2016 study done on UT site about pace increase and defense efficiency drop off. Baylor jumped to only 2.78 in 2011 from like 2.49…they gave up 37 and 40 points next two years. 2013 it improved greatly…but then slowly went back toward 30 pst/gm.
2013 BYU only allowed 22.8 points at 3.09 pace…but that was up from 2.41 in 2012…they gave up 14.1…a 28% increase in pace caused a 67% increase in its allowed. i will post charts later…gotta go work
Rules have also been altered since a few years back helping the D with personnel packages.
It that just defensive points allowed or all points allowed? I ask because for the 2012 team, it has the 72 point SMU game as defensive allowed when in that game 28 of those points were scored by SMU’s defensive/special teams.
Of course the faster the offense plays the more points the defense will give up. It’s simple math. The faster the offense plays, the faster the other team gets the ball back and hence the other team has more time to run more plays.
I hope I explained that well enough.
A better metric would be points per play.
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We won the TOP battle last night!!! Win - Win. Go Coogs!!!
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only three of 20 managed decent defenses.
BYU’s 2013 DC followed Bronco Mendenhall to UVA. Would be tough to get him but hey, all he can do is say no.
I guess 44 then…did not go through box scores obviously.
And 2.90 to 2.99 group isn’t much better as a group. Many worse than 3.00 plus group.
But in general you see a drop in “implosion” games as pace slows.
When pace slows less plays in game. Also depends on opponent pace.
The TT game was a perfect storm. 192 total plays. In 120 plus heat on field.
100 plays by TT.
Can post later
Nathan
Yes good stuff!!! I can look later. Not have computer now.
TOP is like this…if you don’t use the time, the opponent does.
Possessions wind up about equal regardless. Only changed by turnovers on special teams…if you fumble a kickoff or punt…you lost your possession.
UH drives averaged 1:36 before last night.
That’s why you can fix TOP issue if you choose…just wait an extra 3 seconds each play (say 75 plays UH approx avg) that’s 3:45 added to your possession…which opponent loses. That’s about 9 less plays for UH opponent…they usually have ball 35 minutes and 90 or so plays.
You know, constantly lobbying for someone who has already lost his job can only give you heartburn.
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I’m not lobbying…I’m giving data to support why the defense declined. Based on that, I don’t think a DC change fixes it.
I can pull the beard off Santa, but if you still wanna believe go ahead.
I didn’t make the numbers up. I downloaded, sorted and averaged them.
Go look at Baylor games from 2011 to 2016. Go look at Tech games for forever.
If David Gibbs is a great DC, why did he give up 43 points a game for 2 years straight when went TT??
He allowed 20 last year UH. Gave up 32 year 3. 30 this year.
Why did Bennett allow 37 and 40 points in first 2 years at Baylor? After allowing under 20 at Pitt?
Why did CMD give up only 23 last year? And 36 this year?
What changed for all these guys who had success previous year and before?? Pace big time. Own offense
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So here’s hoping that the lesson has been learned by CMA and whoever is at the DC controls next year will benefit from a still fast and explosive offense but one that doesn’t gas its own defense at the same time.