For reference, my last post was 33 Games in:
Record was 18-15
RPI was 113
Prediction was the team would go 14-9 over last 23 Games and Finish 2nd in conference.
Currently 47 Games In:
Record 28-19 (10-4 in last 14)
RPI 83 (Up 30 spots)
Currently 1st place in Conference
8 Games Remain (lost a game due to weather):
5-3 predicted finish, for a record of 33-22 headed into conference tournament as the 1 seed.
My estimated chances of making a regional: 10%
If team has been playing this baseball all year, record would currently be 34-13 and probably have a 50% chance of making a regional with a strong finish.
Should have:
Won 2 of 3 From Cal (+1)
Swept Kleburg Bank Classic (+2)
2 of 3 from UTRGV (+1)
1 of 3 from Oklahoma (+1)
1 Tuesday Win over Lamar, UTSA, Aggie (+1)
6 Likes
Can’t say I disagree with anything you said other than I don’t know if they’d have a 50% chance ….I’d say closer to 30% in the scenario you suggested….but still pretty spot on.
But think about it….if they had performed better earlier in the season and were 34-13 right now….they’d still more than likely need to win the CT.
Even you have to admit the schedule should be much stronger to give them a chance.
3 Likes
At this point, the question becomes: “Does the coaching staff get retained since the team went 33-22 and won the AAC regular season (or whatever the record happens to be)?”
Anything less than a NCAA tournament appearance and they will not be retained.
The assessment was spot on other than there being a 50% chance of making the tournament if we would have won those games. Unfortunately, the NC schedule was very poor and we were going to get pounded by the RPI whether we won those games or not.
6 Likes
I would have to look at the remaining schedule but we are only 1 game ahead of ECU. Not sure 5-3 gets us a 1 seed.
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Just 6 conference games left. Not sure if conference will go by winning % or what.
This seems low for UH.
“Mid-Major” Sunbelt is better than the B10 this season.
A .500 + team could get left out of Sunbelt Tourney.
AAC #10.
