Seems they did fudge the numbers:
https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/us-viewpoints/article313984187.html
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This administration fudged the numbers…
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Key Figures & Trends for U.S. Oil Demand in 2025:
- High Consumption: The U.S. is expected to average around 20.59 million bpd in oil consumption, the highest in nearly two decades, reports EnergyNow.com.
- Production Outpaces Demand: U.S. crude oil production surged in 2025, hitting new records, which, coupled with global supply increases, creates a market surplus, as noted by Forbes and Reuters.
- Impact on Prices: This supply-demand imbalance is putting downward pressure on crude oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) expected to average lower than 2024, according to EIA and EIA.
Overall Market Picture:
- Global Demand Growth: Global oil demand is rising but is largely driven by non-OECD countries (like China, India, Middle East), with faster EV adoption moderating growth in advanced economies, says World Bank Blogs and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov).
- Supply-Driven Market: The dominant theme for 2025 remains the strong supply, particularly from the U.S., which is expected to continue into 2026, according to FOREX.com and Reuters.
Caution — the S&P 500 is ‘Expensive’
Video — https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/2005514263021097427?s=20
I would prefer increasing earnings doing the lion’s share of restoring reasonable valuations, instead of price going down doing the value restoration.
Not a good quarter for car sales. Up for the year but that was all expediting buying of pre-tariff cars (Q1 & 2) and EVs before the incentives ended.
https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/car-sales-take-an-unexpected-turn-to-close-out-2025
Next year looks to be lower as well. Not good at all looking forward.
2018 was the last time I went looking for a new truck. I thought they were too expensive and kept my old truck. Now, I don’t even bother. My truck is going on 24 and still low on expenses. I just can’t part with $50k for a depreciating asset.
I have 3 vehicles with about 360k miles combined and gonna roll with them for as long as I can.
I blinked and car prices got out of hand. I’m glad I was never a car guy.
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Grok—
For a fully loaded 2026 Cadillac Escalade-V with the supercharged engine and all the bells and whistles – you’re looking at one hundred seventy thousand to one hundred eighty-five thousand out the door, sometimes pushing one hundred ninety for the longer ESV version with dealer add-ons.
Sure, but how would that work magically? And how many times has that happened ? Didn’t see that addressed in the short video.
OTOH, if you want to be a true believer in these valuations, maybe you convince yourself we are on the cusp of a technical revolution ( convergence of AI, robtics, crypto, or ???) that’s going to reset the historical norms.
FWIW, my take is somebody is going to get hurt. Either the market investors or the gold bugs.
Agree US lagged — big chunk of that, IMO, was a weak dollar which inflates foreign EPS and Indexes in US$ terms.
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Anemic jobs data for 2025; manufacturing continues to shed jobs.
For all of 2025, employers added 584,000 jobs — compared to 2 million new jobs in 2024. That meant that last year was the worst for employment growth since 2020.
Manufacturing continues to lose workers, cutting 8,000 jobs in December. Factories have been in a slump for the last 10 months, according to an index of manufacturing activity compiled by the Institute for Supply Management. The sector has been hit hard by President rumps tariffs, since many domestic manufacturers rely on some foreign components.
2025 was the weakest year of job growth since the pandemic : NPR.
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Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction
The stock market remains happy with where things are heading
Yes, and for those that may claim it’s due to Federal government job losses
this is pointed out.
The federal government added 2,000 jobs in December, but is still down 277,000 jobs from the beginning of the year. The government recorded big job losses earlier in the fall, when workers who accepted buyouts officially dropped off the government’s payroll.
Add that 277k back, and we still have an anemic job market for 2025.