Consumers and businesses absorb 90% of tariffs combined. Consumers 94%. And no, this is not “fake news”, its comes directly from the New York Fed.
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Yet, inflation hasn’t risen significantly
From the article…
We highlight two main results. First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025. This result means that a 10 percent tariff caused only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices. Second, the tariff pass-through into import prices has declined in the latter part of the year. That is, a larger share of the tariff incidence was borne by foreign exporters by the end of the year. In November, a 10 percent tariff was associated with a 1.4 percent decline in foreign export prices, suggesting an 86 percent pass-through to U.S. import prices. Given that the average tariff in December was 13 percent (see the first chart), our results imply that U.S. import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increased by 11 percent (13 times 0.86) more than those for goods not subject to tariffs. These higher import prices caused firms to reorganize supply chains, as suggested by the findings presented in the two charts above.
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But would prices have actually fallen (as opposed to not rising as much) if not for the tariffs? The fact that the impact seems to be less than some projections doesn’t mean they haven’t contributed to keeping prices higher than they might have otherwise been.
Of course, finding a trustworthy source for this kind of information is practically impossible.
Since a lot of purchases are not mandatory spending, consumers can be cautious.
Simply put, we do not have to buy something.
If prices are too high we can skip it. We like fish. For some reason Salmon got very expensive. We switched to trout. Tastes great, costs less.
Endless examples of this.
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you have to buy something like food, that has price rises all over.
what no one wants to admit is that will never stop; prices have risen in goods for decades will not stop as long as costs to produce keep going up and that enever fall without a recession.
Some inflation is good. You just want it at or below 2%.
But you also don’t want it to go negative. Deflation can be an even messier problem.
just saying there has been inflation for decades, will continue; that any party is slowing it down isn’t true and none is fiscally responsible.
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It can be slowed down and has been though. But you don’t want to stop it.
I don’t know how anybody trusts the unemployment data after they literally said they were replacing unknown data points with zeros instead of, what would have been much more accurate, average numbers.
Also, huge negative jobs revision out today.
this guy always does good break down and puts reality into the good numbers when they come out.
It looks like some inflationary pressures are coming.
https://www.wsj.com/business/price-increases-consumers-businesses-b70e4542
Nice site. Indeed it does.
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US housing market reaches most “unaffordable” level in history, per St. Louis Fed report. Guess mass deportations was not the issue.
the issue was and always is govt spending, programs, anything govt; has been since before we all were born; will be after we all are dead.
Did you hate the bug beautiful bill?
The BBB increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion , which rises to more than $4 trillion when debt service is included. Provides more than $5 trillion in tax giveaways predominantly for the wealthy and well connected, even though Republicans claim most of these tax cuts are “free.”
The party of fiscal responsibility is dead.
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Fun fact they basically never existed
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People hate the government spending they don’t like. They like the government spending they do.
I’m getting the feeling the position is more like the government should only spend
on national defense. Education, regulations, compliance, healthcare, and even
social security are evil in the extreme anti-government position. At least that’s the vibes I’m getting from the poster.