Yep.
Thought it would be good idea to get a new read from the brain trust
here on stock market evaluations. Too high, too low, just right , justified…
Here is an AI summary. What do you see in your crystal ball ?
Key Indicators of Overvaluation (As of April 2026):
- Buffett Indicator: Reached roughly 232.6%, surpassing the 2021 frenzy (218.7%) and 2000 dot-com bubble (162.6%).
- Shiller CAPE Ratio: The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio is around 39, well above its long-term average of 17
.
- Forward P/E Ratio: The S&P 500 trades at ~21-22 times forward earnings, exceeding the 10-year average of 19, indicating high costs.
Arguments and Counterpoints:
- Overvalued View: The gap between stock prices and economic reality is at its widest in history, indicating a potential for a severe correction, according to Reddit r/stocks users and Advisor Perspectives.
- Justified View: Some analysts suggest strong earnings growth, particularly among “Magnificent Seven” tech companies (estimated 24.6% growth), justifies higher premiums. Others argue the shift towards growth stocks and higher inflation justifies higher P/E ratios.
- Risks: Elevated valuations set up the potential for disappointment if company earnings fail to meet high expectations, as discussed in Waverly Advisors insights.
I’ve been trimming stocks and moving to cash for about 3 months. PE’s have gotten way too high for me. I’m old so I have to take money off the table. I cut my stake in WalMart when the PE was 42. Now it’s almost 46. I can’t get me head around it. I took my profits in XOM simply because I watched it jump from about 104 to 159. I got out at 159 and it climbed to 170. I didn’t care, I made a chunk. I’d like some munis so I’m looking at muni funds but haven’t pulled the trigger. This year starts my RMDs so I need to ease taxes where I can.
I still own a lot of Oil, Gas & Pipelines most are paying nice dividends.
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Some good news too. We aren’t creating a lot of jobs, but we also don’t have a lot of people looking for them. It’s an interesting dynamic, and maybe a sign we’re finding some stability.
I think this nudges the Fed toward staying focused on inflation. If the labor market isn’t cracking, they don’t have much reason to ease yet, especially with recent challenges in that space.
Of course if we end up in a recession, all bets are off.
Housing starts are up which doesn’t seem like a recession is on the horizon
That’s looking at March data which is when crude prices first shot up.
It’s going to depend how long crude prices stay high. I don’t think we can sustain it long term.
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It typically takes several months for the price impacts to start showing up in earnings reports and to find their way through the supply chain. And housing starts for the early part of the year were mostly a response to a slight drop in interest rates. Even the article qualified the increase:
WASHINGTON, April 29 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding increased to a 13-month high in March, but the improvement was likely a blip as permits for future construction fell sharply and confidence among builders remained subdued.
This is a balanced look (from the beginning of April) at some of the factors that will determine whether a recession happens and how bad it might get as a result of oil supply and price shocks.
“No U.S. carrier of Spirit’s size - it accounted for 5% of U.S. flights at one point - has liquidated in two decades.”
Ended up delaying the inevitable with that one. The Iran war was the straw but Spirit was in rough shape.
It does suck to have them out of the marketplace. They changed the game in a lot of ways.
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The collapse of the carrier following a doubling in jet fuel prices during the two-month-old Iran war will cost thousands of jobs. It is a blow to President Donald Trumpp, who had proposed $500 million to save Spirit despite opposition from some of his closest advisers and many Republicans in Congress.
100%
And that’s exactly the same result that the jet fuel shortage and prices is causing. But I’m sure that’s totally unrelated. 
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So Chris, were you in favor of the proposed $500 million government
bailout for this airline ?
No. I wanted the two ugly ducklings to merge.
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