A New Disturbance in the Force

Well this is mostly bad news for those looking to profit in equities market due to recession.
Which way we headed ? Watch out for the trees or you may miss the forest ?

There’s some inflation behind the increase in orders, but, nevertheless, there are a lot of dollars flowing through the economy right now," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “Businesses would not order new equipment if they thought consumers and other companies were looking to pull back their purchases.”

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Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.5% last month. These so-called core capital goods orders gained 0.3% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders would climb 0.3%.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-core-capital-goods-orders-increase-solidly-may-2022-06-

Investment advise is so hard to give. A lot depends on your level of risk and time. I know folks that lost 40% in 2007-2008 and had it all back two years later. Minus the interest they would have made had they not lost it. I like to see what folks are doing weather that’s my patients or friends if the convo comes up i’ll ask their thoughts. I have a lot of older friends and have noticed that folks over 60 have started moving completely out of equities or reducing their stock holdings to just 20-35%, were they move it is completely all over the place. I have a friend that’s in his mid seventies. He was losing 4,000 - 5,000 dollars a day on his investments and he decided to get out and move everything into CD’s for the next 6 months and then re-evaluate. I am in my early 40’s and I am staying put and actually just bought some stock a few weeks ago I thought was cheap compared to its historic norms. My reasoning for staying in is look at what happened in 2007-8 and I feel like I have plenty of time. I am also very new to investing, like 8 years new, and only using my play money so I tend to gamble a little more. :slight_smile:

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A typical rule of thumb is your equities exposure should be (1 - your age). My age is 38 so I would be exposed to 62% equities.

In reality, I’m a lot more exposed to that and it’s not a perfect measure. The point is a broader one. The older you are (really the nearer you are to needing to use the funds), the less you want to be exposed to equities. The market will come back but maybe not as quickly as you want it to if you need it soon.

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100 - age

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Over the last half decade would have cost you a lot of money.

It will in a bull market.

In any event, I’m not saying go that far. But being over exposed to equities when you need the funds would be very bad.

That’s why I recommend life insurance. Store a lot of cash, higher rates than banks, access to the cash, creditor protected & potentially tax free.

The only vehicle that performed during the Great Depression.

That is a good point, for high net worth individuals, life insurance is judgement proof

Are you saying life insurance is a good investment
for high net worth individuals?

Do you sell life insurance?

Are there different forms of life insurance? I have life insurance on myself and the payout would go to my wife and kids incase something happens to me but I just pay a premium every month and its not growing by any percentage.

It is a good place to put some $ because like your house, pension, it is judgement proof. Whether or not it out performs other investments, i don’t know.

It sure sounds like it because their typical return isn’t what you can get on the market and its usually better to get term life and invest the difference (that you would have paid had you gotten whole or universal). It’s basically them providing you with life insurance and you giving them extra money to put into a savings account. Cut out the middle man and invest the extra elsewhere.

For 30 years with the same company

I like people who think they understand the concept. It’s amusing

After 30 years, my long time clients all say they wish they bought more. Many say it turned into the best investment in their portfolio.

Found the clients that didn’t invest wisely then or simply don’t know enough to even know. So many people like that even in the business management.

It was NOT for my father, who bought whole life, back in the 70s. Not even close. I can’t think of a single scenario where it would have turned out better for me either. Glad I didn’t by whole.

Can’t we just argue about any coming recession and all the downstream effects?

True. You buy the wrong company you’ll get screwed like a tied goat. There are 2 companies I don’t replace. They aren’t as good as mine but, in most cases, it isn’t in their best interest.

The most profitable insurance sold in the United States is term insurance. Just so you know

In 1980 I asked my dad who lived thru the Great Depression where you put your money in a depression. He said “in your pocket because a dollar today is worth more tomorrow. Also government securities because they’re as good as cash but you make some interest.” What about gold? "No, it’s only worth what somebody will pay for it. Nobody had any cash so it’s value was low. “Oh and life insurance” Life insurance? “Yeah, the stock market crashed, the banks failed. The only places you could get cash was the government and the insurance companies.”

https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1541571580098187265?t=FGfSy87T55snXdUsiyTkpA&s=19