Biggest rallies happened during recessions
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But we don’t even have a recession yet , do we ? We have lots of weird things
going on…sky high gasoline prices , labor shortage, QT, supply chains, war, etc
For recession we need 2 negative quarters. Not arguing that the foot of the rally starts in the
recession; just wondering where we are in this abnormal cycle.
Do you mean biggest short term rallies during an overall period of downtown? Like sharp notches up for a few days amid overall down across a few months?
Seriously, there was about 2 minutes, maybe, of useful information agonizingly stretched over 20.
Reminded me of those cheesy extended fake prank videos I see on FB.
That’s my thinking. Fed is going to raise. On top of that, they started QT. So yeah, I’m not optimistic on the market right now
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Thanks for that clarification. Those types of intra recession rallies are too risky for me to try to hit.
I’m not a day trader type. But acknowledge there is some money to be made there.
This New York Fed model says the U.S. economy will contract this year, as well as next. The New York Fed model assigns an 80% probability to a hard landing.
Right, a recession is 2 successive quarters of GDP
contraction. So technically we are not there yet. No doubt there is anxiety and concern of seeing a recession later this year. Personally I’d put it at 50:50
and the severity and length are all debatable. Not
really personally overly concerned, and viewing it is a great opportunity. But, I also realize we are all in
a different place, and it can cause great grief and stress for those that lose their jobs. That sucks.
I’m thinking there may be more a period of stubborn
inflation but employment holding up reasonably well.
Data on the 29th should help clarify what the path is.
Recession is more nuanced than just 2 consecutive quarters. That’s the typical duration but not always. The pandemic caused a recession without it for example.
There are 3 “D’s” - depth, duration, and diffusion.
I’m not talking duration. I’m talking definition.
What nuanced definition of a recession do you
subscribe to ?
In the United States, it is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales”.[3] In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.[4][5]
If that were the definition, last year wouldn’t have been a recession. But it was.
Again , please provide your definition and source.
The NBER makes the call.
“However, in deciding whether to identify a recession, the committee weighs the depth of the contraction, its duration, and whether economic activity declined broadly across the economy (the diffusion of the downturn)," the release said.
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Commodities have started into the ditch led by copper.
2 quarters is for the evening news.
Whatever happens I am hoping for the housing market to switch and maybe pick up some discounted stocks. Times like these remind me of a saying my mom has, its old and very Polish so keep that in mind, “Rich or poor, its good to have money”.
Radney Foster’s “Foldin Money”
Thanks but Per your article:
Conventionally, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which this recession met after the first quarter in 2020 fell 5%. But the NBER noted that in normal times, a recession lasts “more than a few months.”
And this
“The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.”
The pandemic recession was unique in a number of ways, not least how fast the contraction happened and how ferocious the recovery was.
Yes. Just saying it’s not always as simple as two consecutive quarters, even if that is typical.
Recession - Your neighbor loses his job
Depression - You lose your job
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True, we all lose our jobs = Dr Fauci