Question here for the coogfans brain trust, how many here still expect to
see something more of the Santa Clause rally above and beyond where we currently are
in the markets ?
Markets have been very good to me so far , and contemplating taking the profits out…
quote=“NRGcoog, post:1714, topic:36998”]
Santa Claus Rally
[/quote]
I use Yale Hirsch’s definition: week after Christmas plus 1st two days of New Year.
So maybe we take a breather this week and then get a Santa Claus Rally
Nobody ever went broke taking a profit
Hmmm, I see we are not in the official Santa Claus Rally period just yet; Nevertheless, I just decided to capture what I got.
Thanks guys.
Santa has been kicking reindeer and taking elves!
Based on the number of gunshots I’ve heard tonight, I think the economy is doing pretty well. Pretty sure I’ve heard thousands of dollars worth of ammo shot in the last 20 minutes. Fireworks would have been cheaper, although there has been no shortage of fireworks either. Somebody went fully automatic for a while.
Is it a sign of a healthy economy? 
Lmao…
So this is their forecast for the UK.
“Therefore, we’re expecting a double-whammy impact on companies across the UK, with a slowdown in consumer demand and higher borrowing costs, all putting stress on margins.”
Will there ever be a prediction piece written with the headlines “Expert sees 2024 Pretty Much Like 2023 With Some Minor Variations and Occasional Surprises Like in Most Years”
Nope, no one is clicking on that headline.
You mean like the hurricane forecasters?
A major Chinese shadow bank has filed for bankruptcy on the grounds it was unable to pay its debts… On Friday, a Beijing court published a statement… saying that ZEG’s “assets are insufficient to pay off all debts, and it clearly lacks the ability to repay in full”.
ZEG is a major player in China’s shadow banking industry, a term for a system of lenders, brokers and other credit intermediaries who fall outside the realm of traditional regulated banking.
The upshot of my sea change thesis is simple:
The period from 1980 through 2021 was generally one of declining and/or ultra-low interest rates.
This had profound ramifications in many areas, including determining which investment strategies would be the winners and losers.
That changed in 2022, when the Fed was forced to begin raising interest rates to combat inflation.
We’re unlikely to go back to such easy money conditions, other than temporarily in response to recessions.
Therefore, the investment environment in the coming years will feature higher interest rates than those we saw in 2009-21. Different strategies will outperform in the period ahead, and thus a different asset allocation is called for.
I have a client working as a consultant for Silicone Valley Bank. He told his boss that the bank wouldn’t last 5 years because the execs had no idea what they were doing and wouldn’t listen to him. His boss said to keep working with them and try to help them. 2 years later the bank crashed
The combined net worth of the most prominent billionaires in the United States would not be enough to pay a single year’s interest payment on America’s ballooning national debt, which currently stands at an astonishing $34 trillion.
The combined net worth of some of America’s most prominent billionaires, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Ken Griffin, Mark Cuban, Ray Dalio, and George Soros, adds up to approximately $726 billion according to data compiled by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Meanwhile, the net interest on our national debt is currently at $730.8 billion, dwarfing the sum for previous years.
Interest payments on the United State’s national debt have risen sharply in recent years and remain on track to continue increasing. Net interest payments on the national debt hit a whopping $659 billion in fiscal year 2023, marking a massive 39% jump from 2022, when the government paid $475 billion in interest on the national debt.
The comparison signifies that increased taxation suggested by Democrats isn’t a viable path towards erasing the national debt, especially as interest payments pile up. The United States collected $4.4 trillion in federal taxes in fiscal year 2023, up from $4.19 trillion in fiscal year 2022, yet the debt increased by more than $2 trillion.
The debt interest payments continued to spike in October 2023, the first month of fiscal year 2024, when the government paid $76 billion on the national debt interest. The figure marked a shocking 77% increase from October 2022 when the government paid $43 billion on the interest.
Interest payments on the national debt are poised to reach an astonishing $1.4 trillion in just under a decade in fiscal year 2033, surging even higher to a projected $5.4 trillion in fiscal year 2053.
The projected growth does not just mark an increase in raw numbers, but also an increase relative to the size of the American economy. While the payments in fiscal year 2022 accounted for 1.9% of the United States gross domestic product (GDP), they are projected to account for 3.2% and 6.7% of GDP in 2030 and 2053 respectively.
The national debt itself is also set to reach new highs in coming years, currently on a trajectory to reach over $46 trillion by 2028 at a ratio of over $300,000 in debt for every American
All of these debt facts were seen and publicized decades ago. If not 40 years ago.
The reaction of our citizens? They continue to elect a Congress that votes for massive deficit spending. And they vote for Presidents who sign these Budgets.
Pogo correctly analyzed this decades and decades ago.
The enemy is us.
So, the US economy is doing awesome. Got it.
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