A New Disturbance in the Force

.a.

“a” here also.

It will be interesting to see what the 4th qtr does with declining gas prices. That’s many times a sign of lower demand, and GDP is going down, but can also be simple high supply and we are producing record oil right now.

What really interests me if that lower gas prices means avg Joe/Jane is spending less on oil and will spend that money elsewhere, which then gets turned over in the economy a few times. Lower gas prices is in many ways a stimulus (while it can though be sign of decline).

Combine the extra spending cash with the holidays which normally see a spending bounce and 4th qtr should be good as well.

Wonder what the experts are predicting?

Because of our Kroger discounts we are paying $2.24 per gallon for gasoline.

Way down from earlier days. Certainly helps with our budget.

And, yes, this scenario should improve Xmas buying.

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Scott Lincicome

@scottlincicome

Red Lobster’s parent company reported an $11.3M operating loss last quarter "in part due to customers taking advantage of its Ultimate Endless Shrimp deal — where $20 (now $25) bought you as much shrimp as you could stomach in one sitting.

0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1fa-1f1f8.svg “Flag of United States”)https://chartr.co/newsletters/2023-11-29…

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I do the Kroger points for gas discounts as well. Love it. There gas is usually competitively priced to start too. Right now I’ve got 1.40/gal discount I’ll be using next fill up!

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Kroger doesn’t have enough gas stations though.

I’m out in Copperfield and have like 5 within 5 miles so it works great for me. But when traveling you’re quite correct.

Can’t you get the discount at shell stations didnt they partner with Kroger?

Two-Year Yields in a high-4% range the last few months


Historically, 2s seem to lead Fed Funds Rate up or down
Data through 11/30

Run a company into the ground and the state "disappears you

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/business/china-executives-missing-zhongzhi-intl-hnk/index.html

Kicking the Can…


https://x.com/reutersbiz/status/1731844586820006221

Meanwhile in SF…

(paywall maybe)

It might be hard to fathom in this real estate market, but one in eight home sellers in San Francisco and on the Peninsula is now taking a loss.

California real estate = legal Ponzi scheme

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Alternate headline: 7 of 8 home sellers in this part of the Bay Area making a profit

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Should add to it “so far”

As someone who wants higher interest rates for my fixed income portfolio, this gives me hope.

Oh no, what ever shall we do about this interest rate calamity? /sarcasm

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A trend where Blackstone owns everyone’s house

Build-to-rent growing across Houston:

Communities around Houston grew by offering build-to-rent homes.

Wingspan in Bridgeland was Howard Hughes Corp.'s first build-to-rent neighborhood, offering 263 homes for lease. Illinois-based Marquette Cos. broke ground on a 300-unit community in The Woodlands that will have 188 single-family and townhouse rentals. There are other build-to-rent communities planned for Cypress, Rosharon, Katy and Iowa Colony.


https://x.com/markets/status/1735575102211629260
(paywall)

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Is this like, or a smaller scale intervention, as our own FED did with QE
starting in 2008/9 to the tune of current $ 7.7 Trillion balance sheet ?

And yet, here we are, with great employment numbers, all time high for the market, and inflation
closing in on desired target.

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