I just watched a congressmen try to spin the contracting GDP by saying if you take out one of the variables (government spending) it is actually up 3%. They have their marching orders to take to the media, just spin it to make it look better by altering how GDP is calculated.
The 1Q numbers are strange. You can’t exclude pieces, that’s silly. But we don’t know much about tariff impacts yet. That will come 2Q+. 1Q seems to be about consumer spending slowing down and imports increasing anticipating tariffs.
To be clear, I don’t expect things to get better as we start seeing impacts of tariffs but we don’t know a lot yet. It will be interesting to watch jobs reports over the next several weeks.
That said, the 1Q numbers certainly aren’t a good sign for the economy and seem to show a glimpse but the data will the story in the future. I will say if you have to parse out pieces to tell your story, it’s not good (i.e. if you’re explaining, you’re losing).
2 Likes
In the past 5 years consumer spending is up almost 20%.
Some might want to know that our Tariff policies changed in 1913 under President Wilson.
Since our founding The USA Federal budget was created from Tariff revenues.
In 1913 Wilson largely cancelled all Tariffs. To replace this lost Federal Income Congress created The IRS and thus Income Taxes.
Some form of the Wilson tariff policies have endured since 1913. And that has included a willful policy of allowing other Nations to tariff our exports with no real consequences. A lot of this was allowed under the notion that various Nations would be our friend and stand against The Soviet Union.
After WWII both Europe and Japan rebuilt by creating exports which The USA bought. In essence our Trade deficit was seen as part of our Defense Budget.
No longer any real reason to subsidize other Nations, especially when the destruction of domestic manufacturing is easy to see. The loss of good paying jobs has been met with ever increasing welfare programs. And that,of course, benefits Politicians. They have more voters dependent on them.
As The President of Ford Motor Company just said he wants a “fair” playing field. No extra protections. Let Auto Manufacturers sell worldwide and may the best company win. Good old Free Market Capitalism.
1 Like
I often see Smoot-Hawley ignored when someone pumps up the benefits of tariffs.
In any case, trade protectionism isn’t free trade by definition. Saying someone else does it too doesn’t mean you implementing tariffs makes it free trade.
4 Likes
I’m also looking for evidence for a substantial uneven playing field in this regard most I’ve found was EU has a 10% tariff on American imported vehicles, Japan 0%. So maybe, just maybe US cars are ill suited for those markets. You know free markets and all
3 Likes
Here’s one impact of tariffs.
1 Like
How much of that did you write and what part is a cut and paste ?
Fine to cut and paste, but can you provide the link so we know who
the real author is ?
2 Likes
Was it the same author who told him Russia needs a warm water port to be a super power?
2 Likes
So per GM, shareholders will get less dividends ( less profit) and autoworkers
will get less bonus based on profitability. Sound like a win - win ?
But then it get even better !
the relief plan effectively means that any U.S.-built vehicles with 85% of their content either sourced in the United States or USMCA-compliant would be [tariff-free for a year]( link removed ), after an adjustment outlined in the orders. The formula changes for a second year and then ends.
Then next year the carrot given GM goes away with a NEW and UNKNOWN
formula. And then that goes away too.
No way to make economic plans with that much uncertainty unless trying to create a global recession.
Easy to see that certain posters hereon are part of a certain Political Party which routinely denies facts that they don’t generate.
Here is an idea. Use your favorite search engine and look up the 1913 creation of the IRS Code and the drastic elimination of tariffs.
After YOU actually read about it, report back.
Next, do the work to read about how and why both Europe and Japan were allowed to tariff our exports while The USA did not respond in kind. After you actually do the work, report to us what you found.
Await the reports.
1 Like
which routinely denies facts that they don’t generate.
Which facts are being denied ? Which facts
are being “generated” ( if one can even do that ) ?
I’ll await your link first before providing a comment.
2 Likes
Look at me! I have a link about those “Japanese tariffs”
But hey why use that when you can…
2 Likes
Thanks for the link.
Here is a fact Tucson might like from that article.
Contrary to common misconceptions, Japan maintains a 0% tariff rate on imported passenger vehicles. This policy has been in place for decades, theoretically creating an open market for foreign automakers, including those from the United States.
I do appreciate the self awareness tho
5 Likes
You have what? A pundit, someone that worked in the public sector? You got nothing.
1 Like
Tell us or better what did the same economists said in 2015, 2016?
What happens before c…d hit?
That is right all of these same economists were 100% wrong.
Real nice when I read that a poster(s) are making stuff up, call you out then you return the favor…POST flagged. Real nice.
We are a few weeks into these tariffs. Anyone remotely close to have an objective view of the economy knows that we will see real results in six months or so.
Then let’s have another conversation.
1 Like
I’m sorry, but that’s all over the place.
Keep knocking down strawman if you’d like though.
3 Likes
2 Likes
Interesting on how some posters react when you do not agree with them.
2 Likes