Is the source of the theory the same source that said the reason we don’t teach cursive in schools is because we don’t want people to be able to read the constitution?
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Trying to game the system is a risk strategy.
Is this market manipulation?
Step one: Announce tariffs. Stock market drops.
Step two: Billionaires buy lots of stock.
Step three: Immediately roll back tariffs. Stock market rebounds.
And this is how the rich get richer. So far, this approach is 2-0 in the last 45 days.
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Interesting theory.
I’m not sure the markets know how to react in this unique
scenario. Don’t ever recall a period where this sort thing happens
over and over.
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Looks like we will see them do this again in 30 days. Rinse and repeat.
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94-dimensional roulette.
Lutnick says right now on CNBC they’ll rollback tariffs on the USMCA-covered products.
Wow…I’ll huff and puff and blow your house down…nevermind.
Gotta think with autos already excluded and all the stuff covered in USMCA that
takes a big bite out of the tariff threat.
Fun markets ahead !
Anybody know what’s in the soup today ?
Really bad headline on employment.
US employers cut more jobs last month than any February since 2009
Day one.
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If you cut government spending, waste and corruption you are going to go through short term pain to set yourself up for a very strong sustainable future. Unless of course you are in the Iraqi puppet business…I would be looking for other lines of work.
The GDP equation is:
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
If you cut G, the GDP will fall but you are hopefully setting yourself up for more I and an improved (X - M) which eventually leads to more C.
I mean who wouldn’t want an auto plant in Indiana instead of a Iraqi Sesame Street production. Yes that production counts as G even if it had nothing to do with improving American economic conditions.
Lots of assumptions in that.
And “G” isn’t being cut in a massive way. In fact, what’s being cut is very immaterial to that calc.
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Fired government employees’ functions will be filled by contracting firms who will hire many of the same workers at lower salaries and pocket the difference.
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And it’s a small part of govt spending.
Just the beginning my friend. They have only been on the job for a month.
The problem with the GDP equation is that the assumption that G has the same multiplier effect as I and that is total crap.
This quarters GDP isn’t calculating the future. It’s calculating today’s cuts that are known and those are immaterial.
So it doesn’t matter what happens later. It matters what’s happening this quarter.
IF there is a GDP contraction it is because M is a negative number and people are loading up before tariffs go into affect.
But long term it is far more beneficial to rebuild your manufacturing base.
When all is said and done, I think we will find that C and BI will be bigger drivers of decline than G. It also won’t be all about trade, at least not directly.
The last statement is debatable and not guaranteed to work. But that’s the theory of the current admin.
Short term maybe. Long term no way.
We are seeing the greatest reshuffling geopolitically and economically in our lifetime.
I could see businesses sitting it out trying to figure out what the world is going to look like.
Long term it is absolutely the right move to rebuild our manufacturing base. The post Berlin Wall world was America protect us and pays for it, America is the consumer and the rest of the world manufactures what we consume, all of it being financed by American debt. It was totally unsustainable.
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The current retraction would be ST and that’s where we started.
But it’s debatable LT too. Economists are debating it all over the place. Understand your opinion though.
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Building up domestic manufacturing means Americans will have to pay more for goods. There is a ton of political push back on increasing the minimum wage, will these new manufacturing jobs be higher paying or will we still try to get cheap labor. American’s have demonstrated they want cheaper goods. If faced with buying a $3000.00 dollar Iphone made in the US I think many would just keep using the one they have or buy the one from over seas at $1000 if available.
If we see two continuous quarters of a contracting GDP will we have to admit we are in a recession?