Not good.
What we really should do is add another 5 trillion to it. /Sarcasm #thedebt
Rising Middle East tensions represent another adverse shock to an already weak economy,” they wrote on June 18. Their models suggest that oil prices at about $130 a barrel would pressure inflation to 6%. Post-pandemic inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.
Buy oil stocks like Exxon & Hess who are heavy in Guyana and USA. Permian Resources should bump up too.
EXACTLY the kind of thing this thread is about.
Oil is declining in price today.
Don’t take a victory lap just yet. Iran fired missles at US bases in Qatar a short time ago. Iran has taken no action yet on the strait, and some ships are starting to re route but if they block or start to go after ships there that would cause a spike.
I think you can expect continued volatility in oil prices as the markets try to figure out the impacts.
I think that kind of retaliation signals they won’t disrupt oil supply.
I guess they could still do both but market doesn’t think so.
Looks like it was 10 missles and seen as a symbolic retaliation. But there will be contunied instability and the markets will weigh the impact.
Iran can’t retaliate militarily in a way that isn’t a level of insanity escalation. If they want to make a point it’s going to have be asymmetrical.
That will keep markets stable until something actually happens
Speculation market is kind of like Vegas, I’m always surprised how close they are to being excatly right.
13 posts were split to a new topic: Iran-Israel ceasefire
A post was merged into an existing topic: Iran-Israel ceasefire
The US economy shrank much faster in the first quarter than previously reported | CNN Business https://share.google/nUMq27JQOKkF2qSWc
Can’t imagine 2nd quarter numbers will look any better unless they fudge’m.
“Separately, new data showed that unemployed Americans are having an increasingly harder time finding work. A deteriorating job market — if that turns out to be the case — would not bode well for consumer spending, which already seems to be on shaky ground.”
Dow about to break an all time high though.
Likely that we’ll have two quarters in a row of negative GDP. But would that mean it’s a recession? Possibly not, even though that’s the typical indicator. Just like a few years ago, we may still have stable employment and stock market and the fed would not declare a recession. Then the left will complain and the right will say the same things the left said in defense did then. Would be a best case, and also hilarious scenario.
More probable though…we are just getting started with tariffs dragging us down.