Death rates aren’t calculated on exposure. Besides that, you have no idea who was exposed. No one does. It surely wasn’t near 100% though, IMO.
3 Likes
-
But infection rates can be estimated from the death rates. Everyone who dies from it was infected.
-
Testing was widely available on the Princess cruise ship and South Korea
From the eplidemiologists, the best case scenario death rate we would expect from all those infected is 0.8%. 1 in 125.
This is based on the Princess Cruise ship and South Korea, both of which had extensive testing. 9 deaths in 712 cases on the Princess. 104 deaths in 8,900 cases in South Korea. Both about 1.2% or 1 in 83.
So the 0.8% death rate is conservative in that it estimates 50% more infections (83 * 1.5 = 125) on the Princess and in South Korea than were actually observed through massive testing.
Total Deaths * 125 = max total infections as of 23 days ago, because it takes an average of 23 days from infection to death for those who die.
If the death rate is higher, max total infections were lower 23 days ago. At a 1.2% death rate, total deaths * 83 = max total infections 23 days ago.
Either way, if your total death numbers for Wuhan are correct, then max 270K were infected 23 days ago (well after the lockdown).
1 Like
And visa versa !!
I think he’s going with the unsubstantiated theory that the experts are wrong and millions have had this virus and not known.
First, don’t trust China data.
Second don’t assume an exposure rate of 90 percent in Wuhan.
We can see the mass graves in Iran from space. We have reports in Italy were they are overwhelmed by dead bodies. No reason to try to downplay how deadly this is. Hospital systems have been overrun everywhere. Without ICU care people will no chance.
Well, hell, gig ‘em then. Lol.
Let me give a little real world perspective from those in the trenches. GF is a Respiratory Therapist on the front line. Our Health Care professionals do not have even remotely enough PPE to deal with this outbreak. She said could have 350 million ventilators but there are few trained professionals to run them…not as simple as just turn a switch on. I leave it to health professionals but i do know this crap is no hoax. Take care and stay well my Coog brethern
6 Likes
https://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html
No one knows what the real deal is. “Projected” numbers by those supposedly in the know are really only worst case guesses on something we really don’t have an accurate assessment of. One thing is certain, we can’t all stay hunkered down for a couple of months. We may survive the virus, but the economy would be in a depression – not a mere recession.
Life has to go on during this crisis, just like it has in every other crisis in history whether it has been pandemics, war, or famine. People have to be able to work. People have to be able to produce the products necessary for daily life.
1 Like
What products aren’t being produced?
2 Likes
Are you kidding with this crap?!? Superman isn’t real!!!
4 Likes
The projections I’ve seen include best and worst-case scenarios. I haven’t come across any that only give the most negative outcome. There’s some tragic news, but it’s real, not sensationalized. Doctors, for example, literally are having to quit treating older patients in Italy because the system is overwhelmed. I don’t buy all the media bashing people like to take part in. It’s kind of natural to want to “kill the messenger,” and there’s a lot of ugly messaging we’re getting. But by and large the major media is relaying information from experts at NIH, CDC, and other health care professionals. I’ve watched and aside from some politicians, about the only people I’m seeing interviewed have useful knowledge of the virus or pandemics.
1 Like
Has anybody been paying attention to the confirmed cases count. I thought Texas was up to 400 but the number has been stuck at 304. The California number hasn’t change the last two days while New York and New Jersey have sky rocketed.
Official Texas Dept of Health hasn’t updated in a while:
Sources (none have all the tools, some are later than others):
latest data with good comparisons:
good state level visualization:
good county level visualization and great over-time slider feature:
https://data.vcstar.com/coronavirus/
Good for official historical data and locks in daily data at 4pm Eastern:
WHAT??? Superman isn’t real???
4 Likes
I know the numbers dont tell the full story. But i heard how bad Ohio was, yet their count is 351. Washington state where our first reports came from is still below 2000. New Jersey is about to overtake them. And as of now New York is above 15000. Something seems off
Well, the media is centered in the NE !!
