Gotta disagree ehog.
Sweden and Denmark are similar politically (both very left wing by US standards), yet one has taken a “don’t worry, be happy” approach, while the other has taken a “zombie apocalypse” approach.
Hey listen. You don’t have to be of any political persuasion to be able to notice that at least SOME overreaction is taking place.
How else would you characterize all of the mass gun buying and toilet paper hoarding that has been going on?
Except neither has really taken a dont worry be happy approach…
Its Sweden that was supposed to be “dont worry be happy” right?
Heres some Swedish response.
On 10 March
the Public Health Agency of Sweden raised the level of risk of the virus spreading from " high " to " very high ", which is the highest level. This comes after news that there are indications of ongoing local transmission in the Stockholm and Västra Götaland area.[211][212]
At the same time, the agency advised everyone with respiratory infection, even mild ones, to refrain from social contacts in private and working life- where there is a risk of spreading the virus. They also ask health care staff in nursing homes and caring of elderly to not work if they have any symptoms of respiratory infection. Relatives of elderly should also avoid unnecessary visits at hospitals and in facilities for elderly and never visit if there are any respiratory symptoms.[213]
After this announcement, Blekinge Health Care Region enforced a total ban on visits by family members and friends at health care and elderly establishments and hospitals in the region.[214] Region Värmland enforced a similar ban on all visits to hospitals and health care establishments in the region.[215]
After the announcement of the Public Health Agency of Sweden to protect the elderly and the frail, Stockholm Region decided to change their strategy for testing for COVID-19 to mainly focus on the very ill and not just people who had visited risk areas.[216] Danderyd Hospital also went into a state of readiness due to the situation of the Covid-19 spread in Stockholm.[217]
On 11 March the Stockholm region decided to only test hospitalised patients from risk groups and health care staff with symptoms. Other regions will follow suit within the coming week. This means the data on the Public Health Agency of Swedens website is not reflecting the actual infected persons in the country, since local transmission has been ongoing since at least early March.[151][152][153]
The same date, Södertälje Hospital went into a state of readiness due to the situation in Stockholm region.[216]
The government has banned all gatherings larger than 500 people, under threat of fines and a six-month prison sentence.[12]
The same date, the government announced that the qualifying day of sickness (’ karensdag ') will be temporarily abolished in order to ensure that people feeling slightly ill will stay at home from work. This means that the state will pay sick pay allowance from the first day the employee is absent from work. The decision is effective as of 11 March 2020 and is believed to reduce the virus spreading as well as the burden on the health care system.[218]
On 13 March , the government decided to temporarily abolish the demand of a doctor’s certificate for 14 days for people staying home from work due to illness (i.e. sick pay period). Previously a doctor’s certificate was needed after seven days.[219]
The Public Health Agency of Sweden also declared the same date that stopping the spread of Covid-19 has entered a “new phase” which requires “other efforts”. The continued focus is now to delay spread among the population and to protect the elderly and most vulnerable against the disease.[220] On the same date, 814 persons in Sweden had been confirmed sick with Covid-19. Stockholm region has since 11 March only tested persons from risk groups and health care staff with symptoms.[151] On 12 March, Skåne region decided to do the same, and the other regions in Sweden will follow suit within a week.[152][153]
On the same date, media reported that there is a shortage in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care staff, and hospitals in Stockholm have been forced to reuse disposable PPEs after sanitation. The regional Health Care Director warned about this scenario in early March and government agencies have temporarily waived the public procurement law in order to hastily procure more supplies.[221] The National Board of Health and Welfare (’ Socialstyrelsen ') confirmed that there is no preparedness storage and nothing to distribute to the health care sector.[222][223]
Medical tent set up outside Visby Hospital, 14 March 2020.
On 14 March , the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised against all non-necessary trips abroad, in other words visits and tourist travel. The recommendation is valid until at least 14 April, when a new decision will be taken.[224]
On 16 March , the Public Health Agency of Sweden recommended that people over 70 should limit close contact with other people, and employers should recommend their employees work from home.[225]
On 17 March , the Public Health Agency of Sweden recommended that secondary schools and universities use distance learning.[226]
On 19 March , the Public Health Agency of Sweden recommended that people avoid unnecessary weekend trips within Sweden[227]
That’s not the government overreacting.
I am a life long banker, I know a little bit about economics. Not as much as some but a little bit. By shuttering all these businesses we very well may have plunged ourselves into a depression. It is not as simple as reopening. These businesses, if they open at all won’t have any idea what the new normal is. We have essentially reduced a large number of mature businesses into the status of a pure start up with very little capital and in a wrecked economy.
I fear that the closing of all these businesses will end up being the worst decision this country has ever made. I understand my view is not popular.
The French economist Frederic Bastiat said “when goods stop traveling across boarders, Armies do”. That has been proven time and time again. The one thing that keeps the peace is a well functioning economy. The world is a very dangerous place and we sit on a mountain of nuclear weapons. I lived a big chunk of my life with the doomsday clock at one minute to midnight.
This virus is deadly but so are a lot of things. China scares the crap out of me. Not because of the virus, its because its still totalitarian regime with very little natural resources and boat load of nuclear weapons. If trade drops to depression levels, they aren’t going to just sit tight and hope things improve.
Sorry for the scary rant.
Uhlaw97, people react this way to just about all natural disasters. Most are short term, though. Panic over COVID is a direct reflection of insufficient information and lack of confidence in the government to contain it. This is why it’s critically important to get the truth from our government. Most people don’t know where to get the truth so they’re looking outside the country for information, and when they see other countries on lockdown and unable to contain the virus, they panic.
Right now our own government officials are contradicting health care professionals and scientists. American are losing even more confidence, and this is creating more panic. Now is not the time for our leaders to give false hope, overstate efforts to supply health care workers with PPE, or contradict top health officials over vaccines. It’s time for a federal response to mandate a shutdown and order PPE to all health care professionals immediately. Otherwise we’ll be having this same conversation 3-4 months from now and dealing with an economic depression.
I know next to nothing about economics. For those that do, what is your take on the possibility of the US Gov’t sending out checks to allow people to continue to buy food, pay rent, pay bills? How well does that keep the economy moving?
My company continues to operate, we’re working from home. I hope clients keep paying their bills so I can pay mine. I was concerned about some projects shutting down last week, but seems like everything is continuing as before. I got a check last week that ensures that I can keep everything running at least to the end of April. We’re a very small company on a shoestring budget. I’ve got lines of credit available if necessary, so I’m not concerned about shutting the doors any time soon.
Timmy, I think it is a nice gesture. $1,000 will help somewhat. Here are somethings I would suggest:
Now for all the landlords that are missing rent payments, we have a whole other set of problems.
We HAVE to treat this like we went to war and are willing to spare no cost to win.
All I’ve heard is what was proposed then other say by the Trump administration. $600 for people that don’t pay taxes, meaning those living below the poverty line, many of which already receive SNAP benefits for food. I haven’t heard anything for people with incomes above the FPL. It’s entirely possible something is in the works, though. The other stimulus is in the form of a tax break and 2-3 month deferment of certain loan payments.
I agree 100% on this. We are at war. And we need everyone to do their part – which in my opinion mainly means shelter in place until we get this under control.
I am with Coug51 in that China is scary. I will not be surprised to see them take advantage of the situation to further their own ends in the very near future while other countries are in economic crisis and focused on their own internal needs.
I am not against all he lock down stuff that the govts have been doing mostly. I do think they need to cover .disease issues as well as financial ones. Giving out money is not the only answer ass that will come back with higher debt and need for higher taxes later. Some simple measures such as preventing the stock from opening during the crisis and maybe a 1 month freeze on all rent/mortgages type of expenses (land doesn’t go bad in a month like milk).
I have been on lock down for 9 days now.
A week ago Friday I experienced flu/cold like symptoms. I did have the flu shot in October.
No fever.
I took extra precautions because I am 57, and everyone that works for me (a group of 9 ) is between 5 and 20 years older than me. Only persons retired from their previous profession can work for my team. I am the only non-retiree.
In addition I have a 91 year old mom that lives 5 blocks away.
To compound all this, another full time employee in my outfit from down the hall was definitely in an elevator (13 days ago) with a high profile individual who publicly announced he tested positive. This employee is in my office all the time stealing my candies.
So I am pretty much freaking out in NYC.
I am glad to see there are Coogs in the Big Apple to raise the average IQ. Best of luck HCNY.
Don’t blame you. NYC seems to be out of control right now, with somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of the cases in the US being in NYC.
Keep your head down, stay locked down and inside as much as possible. I wish all the best for you and your Mom!
Reviewing the data from around the world, difficult to understand the trends.
China - is saying no new cases. Hard to believe, but they are trying to repair their damaged rep with how they handled the virus with lack of information, sharing of critical information, destroying samples of the virus and so on with helping out Italy with masks to equipment to doctors arriving in Italy. They claim that Hubei province in China had 67,800 cases with 3,144 deaths and 59,433 has recovered.
Italy - is by far the hardest hit country in the world with a death rate new 9%. Only Iran is near Italy at a 7% death rate. Why is Italy being hit so hard with the deaths? Neighboring countries from Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czechia, Poland aren’t anywhere near Italy. But other Latin countries like France and Spain have been hit hard. Some have projected the closer human to human interaction in those countries may be a contributor. Others have stated the higher rates of smoking that occurs in the Euro Latin countries may be impacting their death rates.
The USA is interesting:
a. California and Washington - the constant travel that went on from China and Asia into the west coast for months without curtailment until China was shut off had to impact the west coast from California to Washington and the high outbreaks in Seattle, SF, and LA and British Columbia (far higher than the rest of Canada). Too bad China wasn’t more forthcoming with their situation sooner for we could have curtailed travel to China and other parts of AP much sooner protecting the west coast from getting infected as what has occurred.
b. LA: Why is Lousiana death rate so high and comparable to CA?
c. TX: death rate is less than 1% and some of those came from international trips. So far, withe size of TX population at 29M is doing pretty well and with only 1 week of heavy social distancing should pay off in the weeks ahead.
d. NY and NJ - NY with nearing 16K infected are only at 0.7% deaths. Definitely need to curtail NY infections and most of that is coming from NYC. NJ with only 12% of the infections as NY has, it does have a 1% death rate so far.
e. Across the south, only LA, GA, and FL are hot spots, the rest of the south so far is in good shape along with the mid-west. Possible hotspots in the mid-west to the Rockies are Chicago and Denver.
The next 2 to 4 weeks are critical with our containment and whether the Malaria drug can prove to be an effective fighter across the masses. Getting our numbers flattened will give confidence to allow the economy to begin to tune back up.
After reading almost all the posts in this long thread, I’ll fall on the side of the fence that we can’t keep the economy shut down across major sectors without doing longterm damage that won’t be easy to recover from. If we can curtail the infection rate, dampen the curve and ramp back up our economy should come back reasonably well over time. We have never shut our economy down like this before. The good news the economy was very strong before this hit and should be able to ramp back up but the longer we go in shut down mode the harder it will be to bring the economy back.
We need to balance between curtailing the infection rate with balance to the damage being done to our economy. Where are those inflection points of no return without serious long-term damage, I don’t know, but it is out there. Hopefully China isn’t full of it with their flattended curve and their recovery rates. I do trust S. Korea with their government being truthful along with Singagpore.
Hopefully the warmer weather and our humidity will begin to kill this virus faster and we get an auto-weather dampening like is expeirenced with other viruses and lets home discovery and level of proof like with the Malaria drug are break throughs for cures.
Unfortunately malaria drugs are mostly manufactured in 3rd world countries (where there is a need), which also have the natural ingredients needed to make the drug. China has cultivated relationships with these countries! US not so much.
I am sure drug makers in America can start mass producing the drug. But it’ll take time to source the ingredients and them to the US. Either that or we place massive orders with 3rd world countries and rely on their quality control procedures. Plus hope they will not keep up waiting while they produce for their own nation first.
The good news is that it’s a pretty easy drug to make.
I see it as the virus incubation period determines how long you “shutdown the economy” . If the virus
wins, you lose lots of people and world economy will be severely impacted. Quarantine, an age old practice of dealing with disease , and the sun will shine again.
And I don’t really see it as shutting down the economy. Today I went out to get groceries and purchased gasoline. My local grocery store was better stocked then last visit, but still missing hand sanitizer and light on few other items. Additionally internet still functioning, electricity still be delivered, and water at the faucets.
Now I understand business and workers in entertainment/travel/hospitality field are hurting, but that’s what governments can help out with. I know our chief UH benefactor, Tillman, must be in a stressful state just now, but things will be for the better if we take our “quarantine medicine” now.
My background and experience is decades in manufacturing, but not in the drug space. The concept of shifting manufacturers to new products and new production lines is not that easy, but doable and it will take time. I am referring to any generic manufacturer shifting to medical device and medical products which is a very small percentage of manufacturing worldwide. But it can be done if inacted.
Here is an article from the WSJ regarding the Malaria drug manufacturing. Prices have already gone up. Surprise, surprise!
" At least 10 companies manufacture hydroxychloroquine for the U.S., according to analysts at Piper Sandler Cos. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. said Thursday it was donating more than six million doses to U.S. hospitals while Mylan NV said it has restarted manufacturing the drug in the U.S. with hopes of supplying it by mid-April."
If it continues to prove to be an effective cure, hopefully we’ll find a way to increase production at reasonable costs and not through the roof.
Yes, its a balancing act between the virus vs our economy. Our economy is severely being impacted over the last week on the ground and the stock market its 4th week of shock with a 30% decline off of record highs just 4 weeks ago. If the economy goes extended time with being impacted it will hit the foundations of the economy and make a recovery that much harder. We must balance both and not ignore the one vs the other. As soon as the dampening begins with increases of infections we’ll be able to turn the economy back up. China claims to have controlled it and they are recovery mode. Hopefully they are not lying. S. Korea has managed it down and has pumped tremendous stimulus into their economy from their govt and are recovering their economy. Hopefully we can quickly do the same.
The Swing Flu started in Mexico, its 1st death was a Mexican kid visiting S. Texas and had to be rushed to one of our Houston hospitals where he later died. That global pandemic took almost 2 years to be called off by the WHO. Its impact on our economy was pretty neglible and it was viewed as a huge overreaction and the WHO was greatly criticized for it. This virus isn’t the Swine flu, but there are still lessons to be learned from the last pandemic.
There’s speculation that the virus was circulating in New Orleans during Mardi Gras.
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