Slow day at work this afternoon, so here’s what I think is happening right now.
It’s obvious that Florida State and Clemson are the last 2 remaining brands in College Football that are significantly profitable (outside of Notre Dame).
As of today, it appears that the SEC and Big Ten are not interested in FSU and Clemson. In my opinion, this is largely because of the legal implications and exit fees for both schools. If exit fees weren’t a factor, then I guarantee you both FSU and Clemson would be in the SEC right now.
So what happens next? Well… FSU and Clemson have a decision to make. Do they remain in the ACC and continue getting robbed by ESPN until 2036, or do they join the Big 12?
Well why should FSU & Clemson join the Big 12? This largely depends on one MAJOR factor. Private Equity.
Big 12 + Private Equity:
A portion of the capital injection to pay for FSU & Clemson’s exit fees
The remaining portion goes to the Big 12 (with FSU and Clemson) to close the gap between the Big 12 and SEC until the media renegotiation
Renegotiate the media deal with ESPN and FOX either now or in 2030 with FSU and Clemson now in the conference
The PE firm would have to have a share of the media profits upon the renegotiated media deal, however, it’s highly likely that the profits would be so massive that the Big 12 would completely net the PE stake itself. In other words, it benefits everyone (but requires FSU & Clemson to be in the Big 12)
The ACC has no leverage to renegotiate their media deal with ESPN, and ESPN has no obligation to do anything until 2036. FSU (and Clemson) has no logical reason to wait this long for a payday when the answer is the Big 12.
…or FSU was the spoiled brat crying they were getting less than everyone else in the P2, despite the FACT they signed the contract.
Then, after the Expansion + playoff snub, they let their emotions get a hold of their EGO and they cried louder suing for anything remotely close to their deal.
Yes, they had a few VERY MINOR judgements in their favor but when they looked up to survey WHO wanted them they found out the B1G 10 and SEC said “sorry, dude…party is full” so they went in desperate mode and floated the Big 12 rumors.
So now their only options are
Go to the Big 12
With tail between their legs they shut their mouth and patch things up with the ACC
Really, the thing that did them IN was the fact that ONLY Clemson followed them with the lawsuits. I Imagine FSU “thought” more ACC schools would have followed suit in suing to DISSOLVE the ACC.
Nope…the other schools are just looking at FSU like an Idiot.
My prediction…they eat crow and go back to the ACC which MIGHT be best for the Big 12 depending how much of a crazy deal we give FSU.
If it’s a reasonable deal…we do it…if it’s a crazy deal with unequal revenue sharing…we pause.
To be fair… FSU and Clemson are some of the most valuable schools in the entire country by TV viewership (top 15). That’s just a fact, and therefore, it makes sense if they get compensated as such (which they currently don’t.)
The only reason any other ACC school hasn’t filed a lawsuit is because they don’t have to. UNC and UVA are pretty much locks for either the SEC or Big Ten for different reasons. They aren’t football viewership powerhouses, but they offer factors that FSU and Clemson lack. UNC and UVA also do not disrupt the hierarchy of an already-top heavy SEC.
UNC and UVA (and Miami perhaps) want out of the ACC just as much as FSU and Clemson, they’re just letting FSU and Clemson do all the dirty work so that those leaving can slide right through.
Again, ACC has no leverage to increase their current media deal or else it would’ve already happened. ESPN is getting 2 of the most profitable football brands for the cost of a Big 12 school, actually less…
PE going to pay exit fees? Let them stay in ACC and B12 will share PE. Still a dominant BB conference, we have 50% in preseason top10, if we can get 1 or 2 teams in FF every year you could offset some FB losses with BB.
ND would be the only add worthy of paying for.
Neither does adding FSU + Clemson in the Big 12
The problem with the ACC isn’t that they are less valuable than the Big 12, it’s they signed their TV deal fro TOO LONG and the can’t get a re-do of their true worth.
They currently have a stronger nucleus of brands (basketball + football) than the Big 12.
Florida State
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Miami
Louisville
North Carolina State
Virginia Tech
Stanford
CAL
Duke
Plus a scheduling alliance with Notre Dame.
I can actually see them surviving this and adding UCONN and another.
You are conflicting what ESPN wants and what FSU/Clemson want.
Even if the Big 12’s eagerness to add FSU/Clemson is very publicly apparent; it doesn’t provide the ACC leverage for their entire media deal to go upwards. ESPN isn’t obligated to do a damn thing, which is why FSU/clemson want out.
The Big 12 can negotiate a media deal because that’s what would get FSU & Clemson into the conference in the first place.
The ACC’s circumstances are much different than the Big 12.
Exactly…and now FSU/Clemson is realizing they have NOWHERE to go.
Their best option may be the Big 12 for a slight bump but THEIR best move may be to stay in the ACC and continue to build that conference because there are MORE premium brands than the Big 12.
Another thought is that the Big 12 rumors were spread by the SEC + B1G.
Read the comments from the SEC commissioner + McMurphy “We are not interested IF the ACC is still together”
Similar to the final PAC raid, they are being careful to ONLY raid the ACC once it is collapsing.
Moving FSU & Clemson to the Big 12, even temporarily, gets them 2 pieces closer to breaking up the ACC.
The Big 12 needs to be VERY CAREFUL…we only add FSU + Clemson at this time…NO Lateral move schools.
I’ve seen it reported we’ve also expressed interested in 4 others (Miami, NC State, V Tech, Louisville)…NO!
That makes 6 defectors and a lot closer to breaking up the ACC which will trigger the SEC/B1G to circle back around and take FSU from us.
We ARE ONLY INTERESTED in tremendous value- add schools:
Florida State
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
The only way Big 12 gets FSU & Clemson to join is via Private Equity to close the revenue gap.
If things stay the same, the ACC in its current form will eclipse the Big 12 media deal payouts around 2029-2030, but even with that in mind, Clemson still won’t be making anywhere near what SEC schools make which is why they want out in the first place.
Yes, if FSU and Clemson joined the Big 12 right now purely based on media deals (no Private Equity involved), then it would make no sense because it would just be a lateral move in the short term.